BoW Merit Index: Week 10

The bye week for Marshall finally dropped them in my index to a more appropriate ranking (15). Oregon takes firms command of the top spot, and the BoW top 4 is the same (different order) as the current CoFoPoff top 4. My intention is not to match what the committee selects, but to determine which teams have had the best seasons. This could often¬†coincide with the committee’s choices, but it will be interesting to see how the index parses out, say, 7 one-loss teams at the end of the season.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
Week7 Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Baylor Auburn Oklahoma Florida State Texas A&M Oregon Georgia
Week8 Marshall Mississippi Florida State Oregon Mississippi State Baylor Alabama Georgia Ohio State Michigan State
Week9 Oregon Mississippi State Marshall Mississippi Alabama Florida State Auburn Michigan State Arizona State Louisiana State
Week10 Oregon Florida State Mississippi State Auburn Texas Christian Arizona State UCLA Ohio State Oklahoma Alabama
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BoW Merit Index: Week 9

A slight shakeup at the top sees Oregon takeover the number 1 spot. Marshall is still hanging onto a top 4 slot for another week, but likely will fall off the radar as their strength of schedule continues its decline. Not shown here, but the Big Ten’s Nebraska and Ohio State come in at number 11 and 13, respectively, this week. November promises to be an intriguing month as the SEC West could have any of 5 teams emerge as their division champion.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
Week7 Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Baylor Auburn Oklahoma Florida State Texas A&M Oregon Georgia
Week8 Marshall Mississippi Florida State Oregon Mississippi State Baylor Alabama Georgia Ohio State Michigan State
Week9 Oregon Mississippi State Marshall Mississippi Alabama Florida State Auburn Michigan State Arizona State Louisiana State

BoW Merit Index: Week 8

Yesterday’s games produced a fascinating shakeup in the top 10. There are 3 teams with 7 wins, and they have been rewarded handsomely in the index: Marshall, Ole Miss, and Florida State. As the rest of the country catches up in games played, this calendar bias will go away. For now, Marshall (yes, Marshall!) is the top team in the index through 8 weeks.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
Week7 Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Baylor Auburn Oklahoma Florida State Texas A&M Oregon Georgia
Week8 Marshall Mississippi Florida State Oregon Mississippi State Baylor Alabama Georgia Ohio State Michigan State

BoW Merit Index: Week 7

Last week I said I wouldn’t make any changes to the formula mid-season. Well, I’ve decided to¬†eliminate the bias given for just beating a team from a Power 5 conference (which was causing wins over Vanderbilt to look better than they really were) and capped the margin of victory component at 30 points; beating a team by 30 now gets just as many MOV points as beating a team by 50, 70, whatever. Once a winning margin is above 30, it really doesn’t prove a team is marginally any better. I don’t think beating SMU by 56 is any more impressive than beating them by 42, for example. Having said that, here’s the newest top 10, with Week 7 reflecting the changes. The changes are applied to every game this season, but I’m not going to retroactively change the top 10 from previous weeks. It has helped some teams, but didn’t really hurt anyone that much. Marshall is interesting; I think they will slip down as other teams rack up more impressive wins (I do still account for the strength of the opponent, and beating a good Power 5 team is worth a lot more than beating a good mid-major).

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
Week7 Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Baylor Auburn Oklahoma Florida State Texas A&M Oregon Georgia

BoW Merit Index: Week 6

A weekend filled with upsets caused a huge shakeup, as teams in slots 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 all lost. Strangely, UCLA was able to move up a spot despite losing due to increased value in prior victories, and TCU moves out of the top 10 despite a nice victory over Oklahoma (TCU has only played 4 games, so the smaller sample size is hurting them. They only fell to number 12, though). I have considered some formula changes to the margin of victory component of the index, but I don’t want to implement any change mid-season. I will re-evaluate at the end and apply revisions for 2015.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State

BoW Merit Index: Week 5

Texas A&M retains the top spot, followed by 3 more former Big Twelve schools. UCLA earned the most valuable win of the season to date when they won by 35 at Arizona State this week. BYU is running out of opportunities to score big points on the index this season, and will slowly fade from the top 10 even if they continue to win. Nebraska climbs all the way to #3 as they join A&M as the only 2 teams with 5 wins thus far. TCU is the lone team in the top 10 with less than 4 wins, but they’ve made each one count enough so far to warrant their high index placement.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian

BoW Merit Index: Week 4

The SEC is really starting to show their dominance over the rest of the country, as 6 (six!) SEC teams are now in the BoW top 10. Keep in mind this index has no bias; it is using a purely data-driven algorithm to determine which teams have had the most impressive results to this point in the season. Texas A&M remains in the top spot, and has widened their margin over 2nd place after a blowout win on the road against (albeit winless) mid-major SMU. Not reflected in the list below but still worth mentioning is the top-ranked mid-major (aside from Independent BYU) is Marshall, coming in at number 11 this week.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn