BoW Merit Index: Week 6

A weekend filled with upsets caused a huge shakeup, as teams in slots 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 all lost. Strangely, UCLA was able to move up a spot despite losing due to increased value in prior victories, and TCU moves out of the top 10 despite a nice victory over Oklahoma (TCU has only played 4 games, so the smaller sample size is hurting them. They only fell to number 12, though). I have considered some formula changes to the margin of victory component of the index, but I don’t want to implement any change mid-season. I will re-evaluate at the end and apply revisions for 2015.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
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BoW Merit Index: Week 5

Texas A&M retains the top spot, followed by 3 more former Big Twelve schools. UCLA earned the most valuable win of the season to date when they won by 35 at Arizona State this week. BYU is running out of opportunities to score big points on the index this season, and will slowly fade from the top 10 even if they continue to win. Nebraska climbs all the way to #3 as they join A&M as the only 2 teams with 5 wins thus far. TCU is the lone team in the top 10 with less than 4 wins, but they’ve made each one count enough so far to warrant their high index placement.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian

BoW Merit Index: Week 4

The SEC is really starting to show their dominance over the rest of the country, as 6 (six!) SEC teams are now in the BoW top 10. Keep in mind this index has no bias; it is using a purely data-driven algorithm to determine which teams have had the most impressive results to this point in the season. Texas A&M remains in the top spot, and has widened their margin over 2nd place after a blowout win on the road against (albeit winless) mid-major SMU. Not reflected in the list below but still worth mentioning is the top-ranked mid-major (aside from Independent BYU) is Marshall, coming in at number 11 this week.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn

BoW Merit Index: Week 3

The noise in the merit index is starting to fade as more data comes in. Teams that are passing the eyeball test are rising to the top, and mid-majors are quickly fading as their schedules begin to shift towards conference play. The only non-Power 5 team remaining in the top 10 is BYU, who has had multiple impressive wins. Their merit index score will fall as their schedule strength fades, but perhaps keeping the winning streak alive will be enough to stay in the top 10 a few more weeks.

 

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State

New method: BoW Merit Index

After yesterday’s atrocious display across the entire Big Ten, it is obvious that a reverse preconception bias won’t be enough to convince anyone the Big Ten is the strongest conference. I’m scrapping that idea altogether and will henceforth publish my work-in-progress ranking system. I was really hoping to test this for a year before publishing anything, in case the results came out too ridiculous. However, I want to remain involved in the process, and I do like what I’m seeing with it so far. Therefore, I will publish the top 10 each week of my newly minted college football Merit Index. This method uses only results on the field this season, and rewards teams that have wins over successful teams. All losses are considered equal, but all wins are given a value that will grow as the season progresses. Some wins may start off as valuable, such as a blowout win at home over a mid-major program. Others may start small but will grow to have immense value, such as LSU’s win over Wisconsin. I won’t reveal my formula here; only the weekly results. I may from time to time mention a particular game’s value, and at the end of the season will list off the 10 most valuable wins of the year.

The top 10 in the BoW Merit Index will have a lot of noise early in the season, but this will quickly resolve itself as more games are played. Week 1 looks a bit ridiculous, but already in week 2 I am seeing signs that this will produce a legitimate measure of which teams have performed the best to that point. Here are the top 10 lists from week 1 and week 2:

 

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple

 

BoW Week 1 Poll

Carrying forward the Big Ten preconception bias, the BoW Top 25 for Week 1:

Rank Team Record Result
1 Florida State 1-0 Beat unranked Oklahoma St
2 Ohio State 1-0 Beat unranked Navy
3 Oregon 1-0 Beat unranked South Dakota
4 Oklahoma 1-0 Beat unranked La Tech
5 Alabama 1-0 Beat unranked West Virginia
6 Michigan State 1-0 Beat unranked Jacksonville St
7 UCLA 1-0 Beat unranked Virginia
8 Auburn 1-0 Beat unranked Arkansas
9 Baylor 1-0 Beat unranked SMU
10 Stanford 1-0 Beat unranked UC Davis
11 Nebraska 1-0 Beat unranked Florida Atlantic
12 Iowa 1-0 Beat unranked N Iowa
13 USC 1-0 Beat unranked Fresno St
14 LSU 1-0 Beat previously 9 Wisconsin
15 Georgia 1-0 Beat previously 16 Clemson
16 Notre Dame 1-0 Beat unranked Rice
17 Michigan 1-0 Beat unranked App St
18 Arizona State 1-0 Beat unranked Weber St
19 Kansas State 1-0 Beat unranked SF Austin
20 North Carolina 1-0 Beat unranked Liberty
21 Penn State 1-0 Beat unranked UCF
21 Minnesota 1-0 Beat unranked E Illinois
23 Texas 1-0 Beat unranked N Texas
24 Duke 1-0 Beat unranked Elon
25 Louisville 1-0 Beat unranked Miami FL

The Consequences of Preconception

Our initial thoughts about anything we say, do, or experience will impact the end result. This concept was observed by French philosopher René Descartes when he proclaimed “I think, therefore I am.” It was also applied in my favorite television show, Seinfeld, when George Costanza claimed, “It’s not a lie if you believe it.” I want to apply this concept to college football, to illustrate a glaring bias that has a substantial impact on the post-season.

Today marks the first day of the college football season and is kicked off by a game between two top 25 teams, Texas A&M and South Carolina, both from the SEC. This game has significant post-season implications because both are ranked, so the winner will be able to point to this contest as a marquee win when it comes time to compare résumés for choosing the 4 teams to participate in the inaugural College Football Playoff. Teams from the SEC hold a huge advantage before play even begins this year due to their overwhelming representation in the Associated Press preseason top 25 (8 of the 25 ranked teams hail from the SEC). The breakdown for the rest of the Power 5 conferences in the poll is as follows: ACC (3 + Notre Dame), Big Ten (4), Big XII (3), Pac12 (6). These rankings give the preconception that the SEC is the strongest conference (which may or may not be true this year), and in doing so, inflate the résumés of every team in that conference due to a stronger strength of schedule and more opportunities for marquee wins. The preseason rankings have such influence that college football analysts are already claiming that it will be difficult for a Big Ten team to qualify for the playoff at all, even if one of them goes undefeated. To illustrate how absurd it is to let preconceptions influence consequences, I am going to create and update a poll of my own that flips the bias from the SEC to the Big Ten. This poll will begin with 8 Big Ten teams and only 4 SEC teams in the top 25, and I will update it as results come in. My hypothesis is that at the end of the year, the Big Ten will appear to be the strongest conference, solely due to their favorable starting point. I will also compare my poll against the AP poll each week.

Preseason Polls

AP Team Conference BoW Team Conference
1 Florida State ACC 1 Florida State ACC
2 Alabama SEC 2 Ohio State B1G
3 Oregon PAC12 3 Oregon PAC12
4 Oklahoma XII 4 Oklahoma XII
5 Ohio State B1G 5 Alabama SEC
6 Auburn SEC 6 Michigan State B1G
7 UCLA PAC12 7 UCLA PAC12
8 Michigan State B1G 8 Auburn SEC
9 South Carolina SEC 9 Wisconsin B1G
10 Baylor XII 10 Baylor XII
11 Stanford PAC12 11 Stanford PAC12
12 Georgia SEC 12 Nebraska B1G
13 LSU SEC 13 Iowa B1G
14 Wisconsin B1G 14 South Carolina SEC
15 USC PAC12 15 USC PAC12
16 Clemson ACC 16 Clemson ACC
17 Notre Dame Ind 17 Notre Dame Ind
18 Ole Miss SEC 18 Michigan B1G
19 Arizona State PAC12 19 Arizona State PAC12
20 Kansas State XII 20 Kansas State XII
21 Texas A&M SEC 21 Northwestern B1G
22 Nebraska B1G 22 Georgia SEC
23 North Carolina ACC 23 North Carolina ACC
24 Missouri SEC 24 Penn State B1G
25 Washington PAC12 25 Washington PAC12