BoW projected wins results

Prior to the start of the season I’d listed expected wins for all 128 FBS teams. Now that the season is over it is time to take a look at how those projections fared (all win totals referring to regular season only; excludes conference championship games):

Correct win total: 22

Off by 1 game: 33

Off by 2 games: 39

Off by 3 games: 15

Off by 4 games: 8

Off by 5 games: 6

Off by 6 games: 5

Over/Under correct picks: 61/128

Essentially, these picks are distributed close to normal:

2016-expected-wins-results

Though I would’ve liked to see a higher number in the (-1,1) range, I am pleased that the distribution errs on the narrower side of the distribution, which implies the results are better than a normal distribution would expect to show. I’ll spend the off-season investigating why there is a spike in differences of +/- 2 games.

The most interesting aspect of large deviations from expected wins is the impact it has on head coaches. Here are the head coaching changes made so far this year, compared to where their teams fell related to expectations:

Fired coaches

Cincinnati: 3 wins below expectation (expected 7; actual 4)

Florida Atlantic: 2 wins below (5; 3)

Florida International: As expected (4; 4)

Fresno State: 3 wins below (4; 1)

Georgia State: 2 wins below (5; 3)

Indiana: As expected (6; 6) *Fired due to off-field situation

LSU: 2 wins below (9; 7)

Nevada: 1 win below (6; 5)

Oregon: 5 wins below (9; 4)

Purdue: 1 win below (4; 3)

San Jose State: 2 wins below (6; 4)

Texas: 1 win below (6; 5)

The only fired coaches who met on-field expectations were Florida International (whose low expectations are an indictment on the coach’s lack of acquisition/development of talent) and Indiana (who fired their coach for reasons independent of wins and losses). Even though some coaches were barely below expectations this year, they have been falling short for several years prior to this season as well (e.g. Purdue and Texas).

On the other end, these head coaches were hired-up due to exceeding expectations:

Tom Herman, Houston: 1 win above (8; 9)

Willie Taggart, South Florida: 3 wins above (7; 10)

Matt Rhule, Temple: 2 wins above (7; 9)

Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky: As expected (9; 9)

It should be noted that Tom Herman was 4 wins above expected in 2015, Matt Rhule was 3 above in 2015, and Jeff Brohm was 4 above in 2015. These all contributed to elevated expectations that each coach was still able to meet or exceed in 2016.

How can this be used going forward?

The data from 2016 can be used to project who will be hot commodities and who will be on the hot seat in 2017. Coaches who found themselves on the extreme ends of this curve who remain with their 2016 teams are as follows:

Way Below Expectations (4 or more games; excluding first year coaches)

UCLA (-6) Jim Mora

Michigan State (-6) Mark Dantonio

Northern Illinois (-5) Rod Carey

Notre Dame (-5) Brian Kelly

Rice (-4) David Bailiff

Arizona (-4) Rich Rodriguez

Buffalo (-4) Lance Leipold

 

Way Above Expectations (4 or more games)

Colorado (+6) Mike MacIntyre

Western Michigan (+6) P. J. Fleck

Tulsa (+5) Philip Montgomery

Troy (+5) Neal Brown

Wisconsin (+5) Paul Chryst

West Virginia (+4) Dana Holgorsen

Wyoming (+4) Craig Bohl

Army (+4) Jeff Monken

Eastern Michigan (+4) Chris Creighton

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Expected Wins after Week 12

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 12. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Alabama               10.725                   11.98 10
Western Michigan                 5.874                   11.64 8.5
Clemson               10.696                   10.98 10.5
Ohio State               10.024                   10.77 9.5
Boise State                 8.774                   10.70 10.5
Washington                 7.982                   10.66 9
Michigan                 9.863                   10.23 10
Penn State                 7.519                     9.92 6.5
Louisville                 5.782                     9.87 9
San Diego State                 9.509                     9.87 8.5
Wisconsin                 5.417                     9.83 7
South Florida                 7.160                     9.78 8.5
Oklahoma               10.304                     9.78 10
Houston                 8.424                     9.68 9.5
Nebraska                 6.880                     9.54 8.5
Navy                 6.785                     9.53 6.5
West Virginia                 5.815                     9.37 6.5
Troy                 4.259                     9.36 6
Toledo                 7.343                     9.36 6.5
Colorado                 3.725                     9.33 4.5
Oklahoma State                 9.048                     9.22 8.5
Stanford                 6.800                     8.99 8.5
Virginia Tech                 6.840                     8.97 6.5
USC                 8.496                     8.91 7.5
Temple                 6.917                     8.88 8.5
Old Dominion                 6.902                     8.86 5
Appalachian State                 8.491                     8.85 8.5
North Carolina                 7.459                     8.84 8.5
Tennessee                 9.526                     8.84 9.5
Western Kentucky                 8.507                     8.83 8.5
Florida State               10.608                     8.81 9.5
Tulsa                 4.464                     8.72 6.5
Utah                 6.851                     8.67 7.5
Louisiana Tech                 7.551                     8.61 7.5
Texas A&M                 7.188                     8.49 6
Wyoming                 3.721                     8.44 3.5
Washington State                 6.104                     8.34 7.5
Air Force                 6.941                     8.30 8
Florida                 7.848                     8.19 7.5
Minnesota                 4.683                     8.17 6
Auburn                 7.131                     8.02 6.5
Pitt                 6.951                     7.93 7
Miami FL                 5.838                     7.92 6.5
BYU                 5.411                     7.91 8
Georgia                 9.526                     7.88 8.5
Middle Tennessee                 5.614                     7.83 7.5
Arkansas                 6.095                     7.79 7.5
Ohio                 6.502                     7.68 7.5
New Mexico                 5.260                     7.56 7
Arkansas State                 8.648                     7.54 7.5
Iowa                 8.103                     7.46 8.5
Memphis                 6.529                     7.32 6.5
Kansas State                 6.187                     7.30 5.5
Idaho                 4.598                     7.26 3.5
Georgia Tech                 5.768                     7.12 6.5
Baylor                 6.917                     7.11 9.5
Wake Forest                 4.248                     6.74 5.5
Central Michigan                 6.860                     6.59 7
LSU                 9.469                     6.51 10
Eastern Michigan                 3.359                     6.41 3
Central Florida                 6.794                     6.22 5
Colorado State                 6.501                     6.13 5.5
Army West Point                 3.011                     6.13 4.5
Kentucky                 4.939                     6.13 5
TCU                 8.113                     6.04 8
South Carolina                 4.963                     6.02 5
Northwestern                 7.294                     5.89 6.5
Hawaii                 6.363                     5.86 2.5
Maryland                 6.131                     5.86 4.5
Indiana                 5.580                     5.79 4.5
Ole Miss                 6.363                     5.77 8.5
UTSA                 4.499                     5.74 4
Texas                 6.312                     5.62 6.5
Arizona State                 7.184                     5.62 5
Miami OH                 3.506                     5.59 3.5
North Texas                 3.728                     5.57 2
Southern Miss                 7.317                     5.39 8
SMU                 3.343                     5.33 3.5
Akron                 6.181                     5.32 5
Boston College                 5.171                     5.26 6.5
Vanderbilt                 4.449                     5.16 5
North Carolina State                 5.944                     5.16 6
South Alabama                 5.333                     5.07 3
Oregon                 8.917                     4.83 8
Louisiana-Lafayette                 5.884                     4.74 6.5
Northern Illinois                 9.760                     4.73 8.5
UCLA                 9.701                     4.67 8.5
Louisiana-Monroe                 3.652                     4.58 3.5
UNLV                 4.474                     4.56 5.5
Georgia Southern                 6.955                     4.45 8
Nevada                 6.487                     4.44 6.5
Ball State                 5.274                     4.41 4.5
California                 3.006                     4.33 4
Cincinnati                 7.467                     4.28 6.5
Texas Tech                 4.615                     4.28 7
Charlotte                 5.233                     4.26 2.5
Mississippi State                 6.823                     4.23 6.5
Florida International                 4.270                     4.14 6.5
Notre Dame                 9.288                     4.09 9.5
Duke                 5.502                     4.08 5.5
Syracuse                 4.208                     4.07 4
Bowling Green                 6.056                     3.77 6.5
Connecticut                 3.578                     3.64 5
San Jose State                 6.336                     3.56 5
UTEP                 5.562                     3.43 5
New Mexico State                 3.668                     3.41 3
Georgia State                 4.940                     3.40 4.5
Tulane                 7.604                     3.36 3.5
Kent State                 4.576                     3.27 4.5
Iowa State                 5.565                     3.24 3.5
Purdue                 3.569                     3.21 4.5
Missouri                 6.200                     3.21 5.5
Marshall                 6.147                     3.17 8.5
Florida Atlantic                 5.456                     3.17 4.5
Oregon State                 4.467                     3.17 3.5
East Carolina                 5.334                     3.12 5.5
Illinois                 4.648                     3.11 4.5
Utah State                 5.515                     3.09 6.5
Michigan State                 9.071                     3.08 7.5
Rice                 6.585                     3.01 6
Arizona                 6.528                     2.38 6
Texas State                 4.521                     2.33 3
Buffalo                 6.122                     2.23 5.5
Rutgers                 5.198                     2.14 4.5
Massachusetts                 3.011                     2.14 2.5
Kansas                 2.335                     2.04 1.5
Virginia                 8.399                     2.03 4.5
Fresno State                 4.029                     1.44 3.5

Expected Wins after Week 11

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 11. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Alabama               10.725                   11.97 10
Western Michigan                 5.874                   11.63 8.5
Clemson               10.696                   10.94 10.5
Ohio State               10.024                   10.74 9.5
Boise State                 8.774                   10.69 10.5
San Diego State                 9.509                   10.65 8.5
Washington                 7.982                   10.53 9
Louisville                 5.782                   10.50 9
Michigan                 9.863                   10.21 10
Troy                 4.259                     9.99 6
Penn State                 7.519                     9.87 6.5
Wisconsin                 5.417                     9.68 7
West Virginia                 5.815                     9.66 6.5
Oklahoma               10.304                     9.54 10
Utah                 6.851                     9.47 7.5
South Florida                 7.160                     9.38 8.5
Nebraska                 6.880                     9.36 8.5
Toledo                 7.343                     9.30 6.5
Navy                 6.785                     9.28 6.5
Houston                 8.424                     9.00 9.5
Colorado                 3.725                     8.84 4.5
Washington State                 6.104                     8.84 7.5
Tennessee                 9.526                     8.83 9.5
North Carolina                 7.459                     8.81 8.5
Western Kentucky                 8.507                     8.80 8.5
Appalachian State                 8.491                     8.78 8.5
Oklahoma State                 9.048                     8.77 8.5
Stanford                 6.800                     8.76 8.5
Florida State               10.608                     8.70 9.5
Old Dominion                 6.902                     8.58 5
Louisiana Tech                 7.551                     8.56 7.5
Temple                 6.917                     8.54 8.5
Texas A&M                 7.188                     8.48 6
USC                 8.496                     8.48 7.5
Virginia Tech                 6.840                     8.35 6.5
Florida                 7.848                     8.24 7.5
Ohio                 6.502                     8.10 7.5
Auburn                 7.131                     8.03 6.5
New Mexico                 5.260                     7.98 7
Tulsa                 4.464                     7.89 6.5
BYU                 5.411                     7.87 8
Georgia                 9.526                     7.87 8.5
Pitt                 6.951                     7.78 7
Baylor                 6.917                     7.78 9.5
Minnesota                 4.683                     7.76 6
Air Force                 6.941                     7.75 8
Wyoming                 3.721                     7.62 3.5
LSU                 9.469                     7.50 10
Miami FL                 5.838                     7.46 6.5
Idaho                 4.598                     7.44 3.5
Arkansas                 6.095                     7.37 7.5
Middle Tennessee                 5.614                     7.32 7.5
Iowa                 8.103                     7.29 8.5
Central Florida                 6.794                     7.02 5
Georgia Tech                 5.768                     7.02 6.5
Arkansas State                 8.648                     6.89 7.5
Eastern Michigan                 3.359                     6.84 3
Wake Forest                 4.248                     6.76 5.5
Memphis                 6.529                     6.76 6.5
TCU                 8.113                     6.55 8
Texas                 6.312                     6.55 6.5
Kansas State                 6.187                     6.54 5.5
Ole Miss                 6.363                     6.47 8.5
Northwestern                 7.294                     6.29 6.5
Central Michigan                 6.860                     6.14 7
Kentucky                 4.939                     6.11 5
Southern Miss                 7.317                     6.05 8
Maryland                 6.131                     6.02 4.5
South Carolina                 4.963                     6.01 5
Army West Point                 3.011                     5.90 4.5
Indiana                 5.580                     5.80 4.5
Colorado State                 6.501                     5.74 5.5
UTSA                 4.499                     5.73 4
Arizona State                 7.184                     5.72 5
SMU                 3.343                     5.67 3.5
North Carolina State                 5.944                     5.61 6
Miami OH                 3.506                     5.58 3.5
Hawaii                 6.363                     5.39 2.5
Akron                 6.181                     5.30 5
South Alabama                 5.333                     5.08 3
Boston College                 5.171                     5.08 6.5
UCLA                 9.701                     5.06 8.5
Georgia Southern                 6.955                     5.04 8
Cincinnati                 7.467                     4.99 6.5
North Texas                 3.728                     4.88 2
Texas Tech                 4.615                     4.88 7
Louisiana-Lafayette                 5.884                     4.82 6.5
Charlotte                 5.233                     4.75 2.5
Notre Dame                 9.288                     4.74 9.5
Mississippi State                 6.823                     4.66 6.5
UNLV                 4.474                     4.65 5.5
Louisiana-Monroe                 3.652                     4.63 3.5
California                 3.006                     4.56 4
Ball State                 5.274                     4.47 4.5
Vanderbilt                 4.449                     4.44 5
Northern Illinois                 9.760                     4.35 8.5
Duke                 5.502                     4.23 5.5
Syracuse                 4.208                     4.15 4
San Jose State                 6.336                     4.07 5
Oregon                 8.917                     4.01 8
Nevada                 6.487                     4.00 6.5
UTEP                 5.562                     3.83 5
Connecticut                 3.578                     3.81 5
Florida International                 4.270                     3.72 6.5
Tulane                 7.604                     3.67 3.5
Kent State                 4.576                     3.66 4.5
Marshall                 6.147                     3.62 8.5
Utah State                 5.515                     3.50 6.5
Florida Atlantic                 5.456                     3.49 4.5
East Carolina                 5.334                     3.41 5.5
Purdue                 3.569                     3.37 4.5
Bowling Green                 6.056                     3.35 6.5
Illinois                 4.648                     3.31 4.5
Missouri                 6.200                     3.23 5.5
Michigan State                 9.071                     3.13 7.5
New Mexico State                 3.668                     3.12 3
Arizona                 6.528                     2.96 6
Rice                 6.585                     2.69 6
Iowa State                 5.565                     2.62 3.5
Texas State                 4.521                     2.62 3
Oregon State                 4.467                     2.62 3.5
Georgia State                 4.940                     2.62 4.5
Buffalo                 6.122                     2.28 5.5
Massachusetts                 3.011                     2.19 2.5
Rutgers                 5.198                     2.17 4.5
Virginia                 8.399                     2.14 4.5
Fresno State                 4.029                     1.89 3.5
Kansas                 2.335                     1.11 1.5

Expected Wins after Week 10

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 10. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Alabama               10.725                   11.95 10
Clemson               10.696                   11.94 10.5
Western Michigan                 5.874                   11.54 8.5
Washington                 7.982                   11.29 9
Michigan                 9.863                   11.22 10
Ohio State               10.024                   10.64 9.5
Boise State                 8.774                   10.53 10.5
San Diego State                 9.509                   10.43 8.5
Louisville                 5.782                   10.41 9
Penn State                 7.519                     9.74 6.5
North Carolina                 7.459                     9.69 8.5
Wisconsin                 5.417                     9.59 7
Texas A&M                 7.188                     9.45 6
Appalachian State                 8.491                     9.43 8.5
Virginia Tech                 6.840                     9.33 6.5
Troy                 4.259                     9.23 6
Oklahoma               10.304                     9.20 10
Nebraska                 6.880                     9.14 8.5
South Florida                 7.160                     9.03 8.5
Navy                 6.785                     9.02 6.5
Utah                 6.851                     9.00 7.5
West Virginia                 5.815                     8.93 6.5
Houston                 8.424                     8.89 9.5
Oklahoma State                 9.048                     8.82 8.5
Toledo                 7.343                     8.81 6.5
Tennessee                 9.526                     8.72 9.5
Western Kentucky                 8.507                     8.71 8.5
Florida State               10.608                     8.66 9.5
Auburn                 7.131                     8.53 6.5
Colorado                 3.725                     8.50 4.5
Temple                 6.917                     8.49 8.5
Washington State                 6.104                     8.44 7.5
Louisiana Tech                 7.551                     8.33 7.5
Wyoming                 3.721                     8.29 3.5
Stanford                 6.800                     8.27 8.5
Tulsa                 4.464                     8.21 6.5
Baylor                 6.917                     8.20 9.5
Old Dominion                 6.902                     8.15 5
Florida                 7.848                     8.08 7.5
Minnesota                 4.683                     8.08 6
Ohio                 6.502                     8.05 7.5
Middle Tennessee                 5.614                     7.93 7.5
BYU                 5.411                     7.85 8
USC                 8.496                     7.75 7.5
Arkansas                 6.095                     7.75 7.5
Georgia                 9.526                     7.39 8.5
Miami FL                 5.838                     7.36 6.5
Air Force                 6.941                     7.33 8
New Mexico                 5.260                     7.31 7
Texas                 6.312                     7.27 6.5
Memphis                 6.529                     7.27 6.5
LSU                 9.469                     7.09 10
Idaho                 4.598                     6.97 3.5
Wake Forest                 4.248                     6.82 5.5
Arkansas State                 8.648                     6.75 7.5
Pitt                 6.951                     6.72 7
Central Florida                 6.794                     6.65 5
Southern Miss                 7.317                     6.56 8
TCU                 8.113                     6.52 8
Kansas State                 6.187                     6.41 5.5
Iowa                 8.103                     6.26 8.5
Kentucky                 4.939                     6.21 5
Colorado State                 6.501                     6.21 5.5
Akron                 6.181                     6.19 5
South Carolina                 4.963                     6.18 5
Central Michigan                 6.860                     6.18 7
Georgia Tech                 5.768                     6.14 6.5
Arizona State                 7.184                     6.14 5
Eastern Michigan                 3.359                     6.09 3
Maryland                 6.131                     6.07 4.5
Army West Point                 3.011                     6.00 4.5
Indiana                 5.580                     5.93 4.5
Georgia Southern                 6.955                     5.93 8
UTSA                 4.499                     5.86 4
Northwestern                 7.294                     5.85 6.5
Hawaii                 6.363                     5.61 2.5
Ole Miss                 6.363                     5.57 8.5
Charlotte                 5.233                     5.53 2.5
Ball State                 5.274                     5.28 4.5
Cincinnati                 7.467                     5.25 6.5
North Carolina State                 5.944                     5.14 6
Boston College                 5.171                     5.11 6.5
South Alabama                 5.333                     5.10 3
Vanderbilt                 4.449                     5.06 5
UCLA                 9.701                     4.97 8.5
Miami OH                 3.506                     4.96 3.5
Texas Tech                 4.615                     4.95 7
North Texas                 3.728                     4.94 2
SMU                 3.343                     4.94 3.5
California                 3.006                     4.90 4
Northern Illinois                 9.760                     4.77 8.5
Mississippi State                 6.823                     4.66 6.5
Syracuse                 4.208                     4.66 4
Notre Dame                 9.288                     4.57 9.5
Oregon                 8.917                     4.55 8
UTEP                 5.562                     4.30 5
Nevada                 6.487                     4.26 6.5
East Carolina                 5.334                     4.13 5.5
San Jose State                 6.336                     4.08 5
Utah State                 5.515                     4.07 6.5
Louisiana-Lafayette                 5.884                     4.06 6.5
Kent State                 4.576                     3.98 4.5
UNLV                 4.474                     3.97 5.5
Louisiana-Monroe                 3.652                     3.92 3.5
Connecticut                 3.578                     3.81 5
Florida International                 4.270                     3.76 6.5
Purdue                 3.569                     3.75 4.5
Tulane                 7.604                     3.73 3.5
Illinois                 4.648                     3.43 4.5
Duke                 5.502                     3.39 5.5
Arizona                 6.528                     3.38 6
Georgia State                 4.940                     3.29 4.5
New Mexico State                 3.668                     3.19 3
Texas State                 4.521                     3.14 3
Michigan State                 9.071                     3.05 7.5
Florida Atlantic                 5.456                     3.04 4.5
Marshall                 6.147                     2.98 8.5
Buffalo                 6.122                     2.94 5.5
Oregon State                 4.467                     2.63 3.5
Missouri                 6.200                     2.60 5.5
Virginia                 8.399                     2.27 4.5
Rutgers                 5.198                     2.25 4.5
Bowling Green                 6.056                     2.23 6.5
Massachusetts                 3.011                     2.17 2.5
Iowa State                 5.565                     2.03 3.5
Rice                 6.585                     1.92 6
Fresno State                 4.029                     1.86 3.5
Kansas                 2.335                     1.65 1.5

Expected Wins after Week 9

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 9. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson               10.696                   11.94 10.5
Alabama               10.725                   11.71 10
Western Michigan                 5.874                   11.40 8.5
Michigan                 9.863                   11.19 10
Washington                 7.982                   11.00 9
Ohio State               10.024                   10.61 9.5
Boise State                 8.774                   10.52 10.5
Texas A&M                 7.188                   10.38 6
San Diego State                 9.509                   10.34 8.5
Louisville                 5.782                   10.11 9
Penn State                 7.519                     9.62 6.5
North Carolina                 7.459                     9.47 8.5
Appalachian State                 8.491                     9.42 8.5
Oklahoma               10.304                     9.34 10
Baylor                 6.917                     9.22 9.5
Troy                 4.259                     9.21 6
Wisconsin                 5.417                     9.18 7
Nebraska                 6.880                     9.18 8.5
South Florida                 7.160                     9.09 8.5
Virginia Tech                 6.840                     9.08 6.5
Utah                 6.851                     9.01 7.5
Houston                 8.424                     9.00 9.5
Middle Tennessee                 5.614                     8.88 7.5
West Virginia                 5.815                     8.81 6.5
Tennessee                 9.526                     8.76 9.5
Florida                 7.848                     8.70 7.5
Western Kentucky                 8.507                     8.56 8.5
Auburn                 7.131                     8.47 6.5
Florida State               10.608                     8.42 9.5
Oklahoma State                 9.048                     8.42 8.5
Toledo                 7.343                     8.35 6.5
Washington State                 6.104                     8.29 7.5
Stanford                 6.800                     8.22 8.5
Temple                 6.917                     8.14 8.5
Navy                 6.785                     8.13 6.5
Wyoming                 3.721                     7.99 3.5
Louisiana Tech                 7.551                     7.95 7.5
Old Dominion                 6.902                     7.90 5
Tulsa                 4.464                     7.87 6.5
Colorado                 3.725                     7.86 4.5
Minnesota                 4.683                     7.82 6
Ohio                 6.502                     7.81 7.5
Southern Miss                 7.317                     7.70 8
USC                 8.496                     7.41 7.5
LSU                 9.469                     7.38 10
BYU                 5.411                     7.35 8
Arkansas                 6.095                     7.12 7.5
Pitt                 6.951                     7.11 7
Central Michigan                 6.860                     6.96 7
Georgia                 9.526                     6.96 8.5
Miami FL                 5.838                     6.89 6.5
New Mexico                 5.260                     6.86 7
Air Force                 6.941                     6.85 8
Kansas State                 6.187                     6.77 5.5
Texas                 6.312                     6.75 6.5
Akron                 6.181                     6.64 5
Wake Forest                 4.248                     6.62 5.5
Kentucky                 4.939                     6.61 5
Memphis                 6.529                     6.54 6.5
Army West Point                 3.011                     6.49 4.5
Iowa                 8.103                     6.44 8.5
Northwestern                 7.294                     6.38 6.5
Georgia Tech                 5.768                     6.37 6.5
Arkansas State                 8.648                     6.30 7.5
Idaho                 4.598                     6.23 3.5
Arizona State                 7.184                     6.17 5
Maryland                 6.131                     6.07 4.5
Colorado State                 6.501                     6.05 5.5
Eastern Michigan                 3.359                     6.01 3
South Carolina                 4.963                     5.99 5
Georgia Southern                 6.955                     5.96 8
Cincinnati                 7.467                     5.96 6.5
South Alabama                 5.333                     5.80 3
Hawaii                 6.363                     5.70 2.5
TCU                 8.113                     5.67 8
UCLA                 9.701                     5.65 8.5
Ball State                 5.274                     5.63 4.5
SMU                 3.343                     5.62 3.5
Indiana                 5.580                     5.58 4.5
Central Florida                 6.794                     5.50 5
Ole Miss                 6.363                     5.47 8.5
Notre Dame                 9.288                     5.35 9.5
North Texas                 3.728                     5.33 2
Boston College                 5.171                     5.33 6.5
Texas Tech                 4.615                     5.28 7
North Carolina State                 5.944                     5.28 6
California                 3.006                     5.14 4
Vanderbilt                 4.449                     5.14 5
UTSA                 4.499                     5.07 4
Louisiana-Lafayette                 5.884                     4.87 6.5
Oregon                 8.917                     4.81 8
Syracuse                 4.208                     4.73 4
Nevada                 6.487                     4.71 6.5
Northern Illinois                 9.760                     4.70 8.5
Utah State                 5.515                     4.42 6.5
East Carolina                 5.334                     4.41 5.5
Charlotte                 5.233                     4.39 2.5
San Jose State                 6.336                     4.19 5
Connecticut                 3.578                     4.16 5
Miami OH                 3.506                     4.12 3.5
Kent State                 4.576                     4.00 4.5
UNLV                 4.474                     3.94 5.5
Purdue                 3.569                     3.93 4.5
UTEP                 5.562                     3.92 5
Michigan State                 9.071                     3.91 7.5
Florida International                 4.270                     3.79 6.5
Georgia State                 4.940                     3.77 4.5
Mississippi State                 6.823                     3.73 6.5
Tulane                 7.604                     3.72 3.5
Duke                 5.502                     3.67 5.5
Arizona                 6.528                     3.55 6
Marshall                 6.147                     3.26 8.5
Texas State                 4.521                     3.22 3
New Mexico State                 3.668                     3.16 3
Buffalo                 6.122                     3.15 5.5
Louisiana-Monroe                 3.652                     3.10 3.5
Rice                 6.585                     2.90 6
Missouri                 6.200                     2.79 5.5
Oregon State                 4.467                     2.68 3.5
Rutgers                 5.198                     2.62 4.5
Virginia                 8.399                     2.51 4.5
Illinois                 4.648                     2.47 4.5
Massachusetts                 3.011                     2.24 2.5
Bowling Green                 6.056                     2.23 6.5
Florida Atlantic                 5.456                     2.12 4.5
Iowa State                 5.565                     2.03 3.5
Fresno State                 4.029                     2.02 3.5
Kansas                 2.335                     1.70 1.5

Expected Wins after Week 8

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 8. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Alabama               10.725                   11.79 10
Clemson               10.696                   11.59 10.5
Boise State                 8.774                   11.41 10.5
Western Michigan                 5.874                   11.28 8.5
Michigan                 9.863                   11.13 10
Ohio State               10.024                   10.52 9.5
Washington                 7.982                   10.44 9
Texas A&M                 7.188                   10.41 6
Baylor                 6.917                   10.20 9.5
San Diego State                 9.509                   10.15 8.5
Louisville                 5.782                     9.95 9
Tennessee                 9.526                     9.69 9.5
Toledo                 7.343                     9.63 6.5
North Carolina                 7.459                     9.55 8.5
Nebraska                 6.880                     9.55 8.5
Penn State                 7.519                     9.32 6.5
Troy                 4.259                     9.22 6
Utah                 6.851                     9.20 7.5
West Virginia                 5.815                     9.18 6.5
Oklahoma               10.304                     9.07 10
Appalachian State                 8.491                     8.91 8.5
Wisconsin                 5.417                     8.83 7
Florida State               10.608                     8.83 9.5
Navy                 6.785                     8.69 6.5
Houston                 8.424                     8.64 9.5
South Florida                 7.160                     8.63 8.5
Middle Tennessee                 5.614                     8.48 7.5
Virginia Tech                 6.840                     8.38 6.5
Western Kentucky                 8.507                     8.36 8.5
Oklahoma State                 9.048                     8.14 8.5
Central Michigan                 6.860                     8.03 7
Florida                 7.848                     8.01 7.5
Washington State                 6.104                     7.96 7.5
Colorado                 3.725                     7.89 4.5
Auburn                 7.131                     7.89 6.5
Memphis                 6.529                     7.87 6.5
Stanford                 6.800                     7.80 8.5
Louisiana Tech                 7.551                     7.80 7.5
Georgia                 9.526                     7.78 8.5
Pitt                 6.951                     7.75 7
Wake Forest                 4.248                     7.70 5.5
Temple                 6.917                     7.64 8.5
Old Dominion                 6.902                     7.53 5
Southern Miss                 7.317                     7.46 8
Akron                 6.181                     7.45 5
BYU                 5.411                     7.43 8
Miami FL                 5.838                     7.35 6.5
USC                 8.496                     7.31 7.5
Minnesota                 4.683                     7.31 6
LSU                 9.469                     7.23 10
Arkansas                 6.095                     7.19 7.5
Tulsa                 4.464                     7.03 6.5
Wyoming                 3.721                     6.98 3.5
Eastern Michigan                 3.359                     6.93 3
Ohio                 6.502                     6.77 7.5
TCU                 8.113                     6.75 8
Arizona State                 7.184                     6.67 5
Hawaii                 6.363                     6.66 2.5
Maryland                 6.131                     6.64 4.5
Air Force                 6.941                     6.59 8
Georgia Southern                 6.955                     6.58 8
Northwestern                 7.294                     6.46 6.5
Iowa                 8.103                     6.43 8.5
Kansas State                 6.187                     6.43 5.5
Idaho                 4.598                     6.27 3.5
North Carolina State                 5.944                     6.16 6
Arkansas State                 8.648                     6.15 7.5
Colorado State                 6.501                     6.12 5.5
Georgia Tech                 5.768                     6.07 6.5
Ole Miss                 6.363                     6.06 8.5
North Texas                 3.728                     6.01 2
New Mexico                 5.260                     5.98 7
Central Florida                 6.794                     5.98 5
Cincinnati                 7.467                     5.96 6.5
Kentucky                 4.939                     5.95 5
Texas                 6.312                     5.82 6.5
UCLA                 9.701                     5.66 8.5
Ball State                 5.274                     5.59 4.5
California                 3.006                     5.46 4
South Alabama                 5.333                     5.44 3
Army West Point                 3.011                     5.41 4.5
Indiana                 5.580                     5.09 4.5
Vanderbilt                 4.449                     4.98 5
South Carolina                 4.963                     4.94 5
Notre Dame                 9.288                     4.86 9.5
Louisiana-Lafayette                 5.884                     4.84 6.5
Utah State                 5.515                     4.76 6.5
SMU                 3.343                     4.73 3.5
Nevada                 6.487                     4.69 6.5
Syracuse                 4.208                     4.68 4
Connecticut                 3.578                     4.62 5
Northern Illinois                 9.760                     4.57 8.5
Charlotte                 5.233                     4.50 2.5
UTSA                 4.499                     4.48 4
Oregon                 8.917                     4.44 8
Tulane                 7.604                     4.41 3.5
UNLV                 4.474                     4.37 5.5
Texas Tech                 4.615                     4.35 7
Boston College                 5.171                     4.31 6.5
Florida International                 4.270                     4.22 6.5
UTEP                 5.562                     4.19 5
Purdue                 3.569                     4.14 4.5
Michigan State                 9.071                     4.02 7.5
East Carolina                 5.334                     4.02 5.5
Arizona                 6.528                     3.96 6
Duke                 5.502                     3.91 5.5
Georgia State                 4.940                     3.87 4.5
San Jose State                 6.336                     3.86 5
Mississippi State                 6.823                     3.65 6.5
Missouri                 6.200                     3.53 5.5
Marshall                 6.147                     3.44 8.5
Louisiana-Monroe                 3.652                     3.33 3.5
Texas State                 4.521                     3.23 3
New Mexico State                 3.668                     3.22 3
Miami OH                 3.506                     3.20 3.5
Kent State                 4.576                     3.01 4.5
Oregon State                 4.467                     3.01 3.5
Rice                 6.585                     2.96 6
Illinois                 4.648                     2.90 4.5
Rutgers                 5.198                     2.65 4.5
Virginia                 8.399                     2.64 4.5
Iowa State                 5.565                     2.39 3.5
Bowling Green                 6.056                     2.38 6.5
Florida Atlantic                 5.456                     2.36 4.5
Buffalo                 6.122                     2.17 5.5
Fresno State                 4.029                     2.14 3.5
Massachusetts                 3.011                     1.82 2.5
Kansas                 2.335                     1.67 1.5

Expected Wins after Week 7

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 7. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson                 10.70                   11.39 10.5
Alabama                 10.72                   11.36 10
Ohio State                 10.02                   11.16 9.5
Michigan                   9.86                   10.78 10
Boise State                   8.77                   10.57 10.5
Western Michigan                   5.87                   10.45 8.5
Texas A&M                   7.19                   10.28 6
Washington                   7.98                   10.15 9
Baylor                   6.92                     9.80 9.5
San Diego State                   9.51                     9.78 8.5
Tennessee                   9.53                     9.55 9.5
Houston                   8.42                     9.34 9.5
Oklahoma                 10.30                     9.20 10
North Carolina                   7.46                     9.15 8.5
Toledo                   7.34                     9.09 6.5
South Florida                   7.16                     9.04 8.5
Nebraska                   6.88                     8.93 8.5
Louisville                   5.78                     8.89 9
Florida State                 10.61                     8.83 9.5
Memphis                   6.53                     8.65 6.5
Utah                   6.85                     8.63 7.5
Appalachian State                   8.49                     8.53 8.5
Stanford                   6.80                     8.42 8.5
Central Michigan                   6.86                     8.08 7
Troy                   4.26                     8.04 6
West Virginia                   5.81                     8.02 6.5
Navy                   6.78                     7.94 6.5
Georgia                   9.53                     7.93 8.5
Oklahoma State                   9.05                     7.90 8.5
Penn State                   7.52                     7.89 6.5
Miami FL                   5.84                     7.88 6.5
Florida                   7.85                     7.83 7.5
Western Kentucky                   8.51                     7.71 8.5
BYU                   5.41                     7.69 8
Pitt                   6.95                     7.64 7
Wisconsin                   5.42                     7.64 7
Wake Forest                   4.25                     7.57 5.5
TCU                   8.11                     7.53 8
Iowa                   8.10                     7.46 8.5
Old Dominion                   6.90                     7.44 5
Auburn                   7.13                     7.40 6.5
Southern Miss                   7.32                     7.40 8
LSU                   9.47                     7.34 10
Arkansas                   6.09                     7.32 7.5
Virginia Tech                   6.84                     7.21 6.5
Arizona State                   7.18                     7.18 5
Air Force                   6.94                     7.17 8
Washington State                   6.10                     7.15 7.5
Louisiana Tech                   7.55                     7.12 7.5
Minnesota                   4.68                     7.02 6
Middle Tennessee                   5.61                     6.90 7.5
USC                   8.50                     6.87 7.5
Ball State                   5.27                     6.79 4.5
Eastern Michigan                   3.36                     6.78 3
Temple                   6.92                     6.77 8.5
UCLA                   9.70                     6.76 8.5
Akron                   6.18                     6.55 5
Texas                   6.31                     6.54 6.5
North Carolina State                   5.94                     6.53 6
Tulsa                   4.46                     6.44 6.5
Colorado                   3.72                     6.42 4.5
Arkansas State                   8.65                     6.33 7.5
Ole Miss                   6.36                     6.29 8.5
Ohio                   6.50                     6.29 7.5
Northwestern                   7.29                     6.25 6.5
Georgia Southern                   6.96                     6.22 8
Idaho                   4.60                     6.17 3.5
Maryland                   6.13                     6.16 4.5
Georgia Tech                   5.77                     6.09 6.5
South Alabama                   5.33                     6.02 3
Hawaii                   6.36                     5.98 2.5
Wyoming                   3.72                     5.96 3.5
Army West Point                   3.01                     5.94 4.5
New Mexico                   5.26                     5.91 7
Cincinnati                   7.47                     5.86 6.5
UTSA                   4.50                     5.78 4
Kansas State                   6.19                     5.77 5.5
Nevada                   6.49                     5.73 6.5
Indiana                   5.58                     5.54 4.5
Oregon                   8.92                     5.54 8
Central Florida                   6.79                     5.51 5
Kentucky                   4.94                     5.37 5
Notre Dame                   9.29                     5.36 9.5
North Texas                   3.73                     5.34 2
Colorado State                   6.50                     5.33 5.5
Boston College                   5.17                     5.27 6.5
UNLV                   4.47                     5.15 5.5
Michigan State                   9.07                     5.10 7.5
Connecticut                   3.58                     5.09 5
Tulane                   7.60                     5.02 3.5
South Carolina                   4.96                     4.94 5
Vanderbilt                   4.45                     4.91 5
Florida International                   4.27                     4.91 6.5
Purdue                   3.57                     4.88 4.5
California                   3.01                     4.87 4
Missouri                   6.20                     4.77 5.5
East Carolina                   5.33                     4.75 5.5
Northern Illinois                   9.76                     4.70 8.5
Marshall                   6.15                     4.61 8.5
Utah State                   5.52                     4.57 6.5
Arizona                   6.53                     4.54 6
Mississippi State                   6.82                     4.51 6.5
Texas Tech                   4.61                     4.44 7
Texas State                   4.52                     4.41 3
Duke                   5.50                     4.30 5.5
San Jose State                   6.34                     4.11 5
Louisiana-Lafayette                   5.88                     4.10 6.5
Syracuse                   4.21                     4.08 4
Charlotte                   5.23                     3.83 2.5
Louisiana-Monroe                   3.65                     3.82 3.5
SMU                   3.34                     3.80 3.5
Kent State                   4.58                     3.77 4.5
Georgia State                   4.94                     3.69 4.5
New Mexico State                   3.67                     3.67 3
UTEP                   5.56                     3.56 5
Virginia                   8.40                     3.42 4.5
Bowling Green                   6.06                     3.19 6.5
Rutgers                   5.20                     3.11 4.5
Oregon State                   4.47                     3.10 3.5
Illinois                   4.65                     3.08 4.5
Florida Atlantic                   5.46                     2.92 4.5
Rice                   6.58                     2.89 6
Iowa State                   5.56                     2.83 3.5
Buffalo                   6.12                     2.80 5.5
Fresno State                   4.03                     2.76 3.5
Miami OH                   3.51                     2.52 3.5
Massachusetts                   3.01                     2.10 2.5
Kansas                   2.33                     1.95 1.5