College Football Preview 2017 Part 2: Rosters

*Note: Most teams have not posted their Fall rosters yet, so this preview is looking at Spring 2017 rosters. Values will change slightly as Fall rosters become available; freshmen who didn’t enroll early, off-season attrition, and injuries/suspensions have not yet been factored into my roster values.

 

I evaluate rosters by looking at a few components: returning all-conference/all-American team members, recruiting rankings, and class standing for every player on every roster. After assigning each player a score, I add up the scores for the top-70 rated players on each roster to determine the overall roster value. I’ve settled on 70 instead of the 85 full-scholarship number because players beyond the 70th man on the roster are rarely seeing any game action. I also adjust for injuries/suspensions such that if a player in the top 70 will be out for a game, his player score will temporarily be set to zero and everyone beneath him moves up a slot, so the 71st player on the roster would then move into the top 70 and their score would count towards the roster value. Roster values are used in combination with coach win/expectation rate and game venue to compare teams and determine the likelihood of winning a given game.

 

Once again, Alabama and Ohio State are in a class by themselves when it comes to talent on the roster. Newcomers to FBS for 2017, UAB and Coastal Carolina, may be facing a bit of an acclimation period until they can assemble a more complete roster, though UAB compares rather favorably to their Conference USA brethren.

It’s a bit jarring to see Illinois and Syracuse so low on this list. South Florida should be a serious contender for a NY6 bowl in year 1 under Charlie Strong.

 

School

Top 70

Conference

Alabama

106.25

SEC

Ohio State

106.25

B1G

Washington

92

P12

Florida State

89.5

ACC

Clemson

86.25

ACC

LSU

83.25

SEC

Oklahoma

80.25

XII

Georgia

79.5

SEC

Texas

77.25

XII

Auburn

76.25

SEC

Penn State

74.5

B1G

USC

72.5

P12

Oregon

71

P12

TCU

71

XII

UCLA

69.25

P12

Michigan

67.75

B1G

Florida

66

SEC

Notre Dame

65.75

Ind

South Florida

64.25

Amer

Ole Miss

64

SEC

Oklahoma State

63.25

XII

Texas A&M

62.25

SEC

Arizona State

58.25

P12

Tennessee

57.25

SEC

Kansas State

54.75

XII

Miami FL

54.5

ACC

Nebraska

54.25

B1G

Washington State

53

P12

Arkansas State

52.5

SunBelt

Michigan State

52.5

B1G

Utah

52.5

P12

Western Kentucky

52.25

CUSA

Louisville

52.25

ACC

Toledo

52

MAC

Arkansas

51.25

SEC

Troy

50

SunBelt

Central Michigan

49.25

MAC

BYU

48

Ind

Stanford

48

P12

Colorado

47.75

P12

North Carolina State

47.25

ACC

New Mexico State

46.75

SunBelt

Northern Illinois

46.5

MAC

Kentucky

46.25

SEC

Colorado State

46.25

MtnW

Iowa State

46

XII

Appalachian State

46

SunBelt

Baylor

45.25

XII

Memphis

45

Amer

Pitt

45

ACC

Central Florida

44.75

Amer

Maryland

44.75

B1G

Northwestern

44.25

B1G

Western Michigan

44

MAC

Ohio

43.75

MAC

San Diego State

43.75

MtnW

Nevada

43.25

MtnW

Boise State

43.25

MtnW

Mississippi State

43

SEC

Akron

42.75

MAC

Houston

42.75

Amer

California

42.75

P12

North Carolina

42.75

ACC

South Carolina

42

SEC

Tulsa

41.5

Amer

Temple

40.5

Amer

Missouri

40.25

SEC

Arizona

40

P12

Hawaii

39.75

MtnW

Virginia

39.75

ACC

Virginia Tech

39.5

ACC

Iowa

39.5

B1G

Wisconsin

39.5

B1G

Middle Tennessee

39.25

CUSA

Indiana

38.75

B1G

Southern Miss

38

CUSA

Georgia State

37.25

SunBelt

Vanderbilt

37.25

SEC

San Jose State

37.25

MtnW

Bowling Green

36.75

MAC

Oregon State

36.5

P12

UAB

36.5

CUSA

UTSA

36.25

CUSA

North Texas

36

CUSA

Eastern Michigan

35.25

MAC

West Virginia

35

XII

Louisiana-Lafayette

34.75

SunBelt

Florida Atlantic

34.5

CUSA

UTEP

34.5

CUSA

New Mexico

34.25

MtnW

Rice

34.25

CUSA

Minnesota

33.75

B1G

Old Dominion

33.5

CUSA

Georgia Tech

33

ACC

Purdue

32.75

B1G

Rutgers

32.25

B1G

Kent State

32

MAC

Cincinnati

32

Amer

Duke

31.75

ACC

East Carolina

31.5

Amer

Buffalo

31.5

MAC

Boston College

31

ACC

Idaho

30.5

SunBelt

Navy

30.5

Amer

Wyoming

30.5

MtnW

Texas Tech

30.5

XII

SMU

30.25

Amer

Connecticut

29.75

Amer

Wake Forest

29.75

ACC

Florida International

28.75

CUSA

Louisiana Tech

28.75

CUSA

Marshall

28.5

CUSA

Coastal Carolina

28.5

SunBelt

UNLV

27.5

MtnW

Fresno State

27.25

MtnW

Utah State

27

MtnW

Miami OH

26.5

MAC

Massachusetts

26.25

MAC

Tulane

26.25

Amer

Kansas

26

XII

Charlotte

26

CUSA

Georgia Southern

25.25

SunBelt

Ball State

24.75

MAC

Air Force

24.75

MtnW

Syracuse

24.25

ACC

Illinois

23

B1G

South Alabama

22.5

SunBelt

Louisiana-Monroe

22

SunBelt

Army

21.5

Ind

Texas State

18

SunBelt

Short preview this week, but the next two weeks previewing schedules and season projections, respectively, will feature much more content.

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