Bracket Assessment: 20 Days left

The bracket is starting to settle into form this late in the season, with minimal day-to-day fluctuation. We can start to draw conclusions on which teams are already in, which are still in contention, and how many bid-stealing conferences are out there. The field is comprised of 32 automatic bids (from conference tournament champions) and 36 at-large bids.

Tournament Locks

The following 25 teams have already done enough to warrant an at-large bid. Even if each of them were to not win again in the regular season, they would still be selected into the field:

1 Villanova Big East
2 Gonzaga West Coast
3 Kansas Big 12
4 Baylor Big 12
5 Oregon Pacific-12
6 Arizona Pacific-12
7 Kentucky Southeastern
8 Louisville Atlantic Coast
9 Florida Southeastern
10 Duke Atlantic Coast
11 Butler Big East
12 North Carolina Atlantic Coast
13 Florida St Atlantic Coast
14 Purdue Big Ten
15 Cincinnati American
16 UCLA Pacific-12
17 Maryland Big Ten
18 Creighton Big East
19 SMU American
20 Wisconsin Big Ten
21 St Mary’s CA West Coast
22 West Virginia Big 12
23 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast
24 Minnesota Big Ten
25 Wichita St Missouri Valley

1 or 2 wins Away

This next group of 8 will be in the field, barring a monumental collapse down the stretch:

26 Virginia Atlantic Coast
27 MTSU Conference USA
28 VA Commonwealth Atlantic 10
29 Xavier Big East
30 South Carolina Southeastern
31 USC Pacific-12
32 Dayton Atlantic 10
33 Northwestern Big Ten

Remaining contenders

This next group is fighting for the few remaining at-large bids and hoping that the teams in the two groups above them grab all 11 auto-bids in their respective conference tournaments. Some of these teams may be able to sneak in with as few as two more wins, but would be well-served to rack up as many as possible down the stretch to avoid reliance on winning the conference tournament:

34 Illinois St Missouri Valley
35 Oklahoma St Big 12
36 Arkansas Southeastern
37 Iowa St Big 12
38 Nevada Mountain West
39 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast
40 Valparaiso Horizon
41 Michigan Big Ten
42 California Pacific-12
43 Miami FL Atlantic Coast
44 Michigan St Big Ten
45 Akron Mid-American
46 Marquette Big East
47 Kansas St Big 12
48 Houston American
49 Seton Hall Big East
50 UNC Wilmington Colonial
51 Georgetown Big East
52 Tennessee Southeastern
53 Providence Big East
54 Rhode Island Atlantic 10
55 Boise St Mountain West
56 New Mexico St WAC
57 Vanderbilt Southeastern
58 Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast
59 TCU Big 12
60 Clemson Atlantic Coast
61 Illinois Big Ten
62 Georgia Southeastern

Any team not listed as one of the 62 above will need to win their conference tournament in order to make the field.

Bid-Stealers

Some conferences have teams that would qualify for an at-large if they were to miss out on an auto-bid. This includes the following:

1 Big East
2 West Coast
3 Big 12
4 Pacific-12
5 Southeastern
6 Atlantic Coast
7 Big Ten
8 American
9 Missouri Valley
10 Conference USA
11 Atlantic 10

The top 36 teams above should feel pretty safe even if they don’t win their conference tournament, but outside the top 36 and bid-stealing starts to play a factor. The most important conference tournaments to pay attention to are:

West Coast: Gonzaga or St. Mary’s needs to win this auto-bid to avoid a certain stolen bid.

Conference USA: Middle Tennessee must earn the auto-bid; nobody else in the conference is remotely close to an at-large and the Blue Raiders have all but locked up their at-large.

American: It would be helpful for all if SMU or Cincinnati earns this auto-bid. Houston wouldn’t be bad necessarily, but anyone else would be a disaster for bubble teams.

Missouri Valley: Wichita St is definitely in and Illinois St is very likely in; you want one of these two to get the auto-bid if your team is on the bubble.

Atlantic 10: VCU and Dayton are near-locks for an at-large, so it’d be easiest if one of them earns the A10 auto-bid. Rhode Island is close, so it wouldn’t be that bad if they earned it, but nobody else is in contention for an at-large.

The 6 major conference tournaments are important to keep an eye on, but with so many at-large contenders it is much less likely that a bid is stolen from those.

 

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