BoW projected wins results

Prior to the start of the season I’d listed expected wins for all 128 FBS teams. Now that the season is over it is time to take a look at how those projections fared (all win totals referring to regular season only; excludes conference championship games):

Correct win total: 22

Off by 1 game: 33

Off by 2 games: 39

Off by 3 games: 15

Off by 4 games: 8

Off by 5 games: 6

Off by 6 games: 5

Over/Under correct picks: 61/128

Essentially, these picks are distributed close to normal:

2016-expected-wins-results

Though I would’ve liked to see a higher number in the (-1,1) range, I am pleased that the distribution errs on the narrower side of the distribution, which implies the results are better than a normal distribution would expect to show. I’ll spend the off-season investigating why there is a spike in differences of +/- 2 games.

The most interesting aspect of large deviations from expected wins is the impact it has on head coaches. Here are the head coaching changes made so far this year, compared to where their teams fell related to expectations:

Fired coaches

Cincinnati: 3 wins below expectation (expected 7; actual 4)

Florida Atlantic: 2 wins below (5; 3)

Florida International: As expected (4; 4)

Fresno State: 3 wins below (4; 1)

Georgia State: 2 wins below (5; 3)

Indiana: As expected (6; 6) *Fired due to off-field situation

LSU: 2 wins below (9; 7)

Nevada: 1 win below (6; 5)

Oregon: 5 wins below (9; 4)

Purdue: 1 win below (4; 3)

San Jose State: 2 wins below (6; 4)

Texas: 1 win below (6; 5)

The only fired coaches who met on-field expectations were Florida International (whose low expectations are an indictment on the coach’s lack of acquisition/development of talent) and Indiana (who fired their coach for reasons independent of wins and losses). Even though some coaches were barely below expectations this year, they have been falling short for several years prior to this season as well (e.g. Purdue and Texas).

On the other end, these head coaches were hired-up due to exceeding expectations:

Tom Herman, Houston: 1 win above (8; 9)

Willie Taggart, South Florida: 3 wins above (7; 10)

Matt Rhule, Temple: 2 wins above (7; 9)

Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky: As expected (9; 9)

It should be noted that Tom Herman was 4 wins above expected in 2015, Matt Rhule was 3 above in 2015, and Jeff Brohm was 4 above in 2015. These all contributed to elevated expectations that each coach was still able to meet or exceed in 2016.

How can this be used going forward?

The data from 2016 can be used to project who will be hot commodities and who will be on the hot seat in 2017. Coaches who found themselves on the extreme ends of this curve who remain with their 2016 teams are as follows:

Way Below Expectations (4 or more games; excluding first year coaches)

UCLA (-6) Jim Mora

Michigan State (-6) Mark Dantonio

Northern Illinois (-5) Rod Carey

Notre Dame (-5) Brian Kelly

Rice (-4) David Bailiff

Arizona (-4) Rich Rodriguez

Buffalo (-4) Lance Leipold

 

Way Above Expectations (4 or more games)

Colorado (+6) Mike MacIntyre

Western Michigan (+6) P. J. Fleck

Tulsa (+5) Philip Montgomery

Troy (+5) Neal Brown

Wisconsin (+5) Paul Chryst

West Virginia (+4) Dana Holgorsen

Wyoming (+4) Craig Bohl

Army (+4) Jeff Monken

Eastern Michigan (+4) Chris Creighton

 

 

 

 

 

 

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