Win Probabilities Week 14


Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Alabama Florida 97.41%
Clemson Virginia Tech 91.03%
Arkansas State Texas State 85.60%
Western Michigan Ohio 82.83%
Oklahoma Oklahoma State 79.04%
Washington Colorado 73.86%
South Alabama New Mexico State 73.49%
Navy Temple 72.37%
San Diego State Wyoming 71.19%
West Virginia Baylor 70.21%
Penn State Wisconsin 67.77%
TCU Kansas State 66.73%
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 66.16%
Idaho Georgia State 61.07%
Troy Georgia Southern 56.30%
Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Lafayette 56.27%

Comparing the CFP Contenders

I’ve put together a side-by-side comparison of all possible playoff teams in a Google spreadsheet. The color scale is to aid visually by column from best (green) to worst (red). I’ve excluded Western Michigan for now, but will add them as well as any other NY6 invitees after the regular season. I will also update final numbers to reflect the complete season.

Path to the Playoff, 11/27/2016

For the final time before the bowl selections on December 4th, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff.

Alabama: Playoff lock.

Ohio State: Playoff lock.

Clemson: Win ACC championship, otherwise out.

Washington: Win PAC12 CG, otherwise out.

Penn State: Win Big Ten CG AND either Clemson or Washington loses.

Wisconsin: Win Big Ten CG AND either Clemson or Washington loses.

Oklahoma: Beat Oklahoma State AND Clemson loses AND Washington loses.

Colorado: Win PAC12 CG AND Clemson loses AND Oklahoma loses.

Two spots are already clinched (barring a spectacular change of heart from the committee), and six teams are fighting over the final two spots. The Big Ten still has a shot at two teams in (and according to this guy, has a shot at three teams in), and the Big XII is once again on the outside looking in.

I am fascinated by Nick’s scenario for three Big Ten teams, and even though it absolutely makes sense on the surface it is extremely difficult to see two teams that didn’t win their division make the field of four over three conference champions. Ohio State is in a unique spot as one of four Power 5 teams with fewer than 2 losses; they also have wins over two teams vying for a playoff bid, a narrow loss to another contender, and a recent win over the next team outside the contenders listed above. Their resume is flat out better than everybody save Alabama, so the committee has no choice but to include them.

Even though Michigan has wins over three of the teams above, and a last-play-of-the-game loss on the road to a fourth, their two losses and lack of conference championship game appearance are just a bit too much to overlook. Had Michigan beaten Iowa their case would be every bit as strong as Ohio State’s, plus they’d be playing for a championship this week to solidify their spot in the playoff. Michigan is a lock for a NY6 bowl, but would need the committee to move really far from their stance that conference championships are a primary factor. Having fewer losses than a conference champion can justify a bid, but having the same number of losses very likely cannot.

College Football Rankings, Week 13

Updated rankings through Week 13. These ranking are used in Ken Massey’s composite ratings.

Rankings are representative of on-field results only; no preseason information or future projections are used.

The regular season is over for most teams, but that doesn’t mean teams without any games left have no opportunity to move up. My ratings system weighs recent games the most as they are the best indicator of how well a team is playing now. There are still plenty of scenarios left to play out which will shape the playoff field. An expanded playoff scenarios outlook will be included in a later post.

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Ohio State B1G
3 Clemson ACC
4 Washington PAC12
5 Wisconsin B1G
7 Penn State B1G
8 Colorado PAC12
9 Oklahoma XII
10 Michigan B1G
11 Florida State ACC
12 Oklahoma State XII
13 Stanford PAC12
14 West Virginia XII
15 Florida SEC
16 Pitt ACC
17 Virginia Tech ACC
18 Nebraska B1G
19 Louisville ACC
20 Tennessee SEC
21 Miami FL ACC
23 Georgia Tech ACC
24 Western Michigan MAC
25 Auburn SEC
26 Iowa B1G
27 Washington State PAC12
28 North Carolina ACC
29 Boise State MtnW
30 Utah PAC12
31 Minnesota B1G
32 Houston Amer
33 South Florida Amer
34 Navy Amer
35 Kansas State XII
36 Kentucky SEC
37 Texas A&M SEC
38 Georgia SEC
39 Arkansas SEC
40 Appalachian State SunBelt
41 Western Kentucky CUSA
42 Vanderbilt SEC
43 Tulsa Amer
44 Northwestern B1G
46 Troy SunBelt
47 BYU Ind
48 Temple Amer
49 North Carolina State ACC
50 Memphis Amer
51 Air Force MtnW
52 Toledo MAC
53 Old Dominion CUSA
54 Wyoming MtnW
55 California PAC12
56 Colorado State MtnW
57 South Carolina SEC
58 Boston College ACC
59 Idaho SunBelt
60 Louisiana Tech CUSA
61 San Diego State MtnW
62 Ole Miss SEC
63 Baylor XII
64 Mississippi State SEC
65 Oregon PAC12
66 Texas Tech XII
67 Indiana B1G
68 Maryland B1G
69 Oregon State PAC12
70 Texas XII
71 New Mexico MtnW
72 Arizona State PAC12
73 Wake Forest ACC
74 Missouri SEC
75 Middle Tennessee CUSA
77 Syracuse ACC
78 Notre Dame Ind
79 Central Florida Amer
80 Duke ACC
81 Ohio MAC
82 Arkansas State SunBelt
83 Eastern Michigan MAC
84 Arizona PAC12
85 Central Michigan MAC
86 Southern Miss CUSA
88 SMU Amer
89 Army West Point Ind
90 Michigan State B1G
91 Iowa State XII
92 Louisiana-Lafayette SunBelt
93 Louisiana-Monroe SunBelt
94 South Alabama SunBelt
95 Illinois B1G
96 Miami OH MAC
97 Northern Illinois MAC
98 Hawaii MtnW
99 Kansas XII
100 North Texas CUSA
101 Georgia Southern SunBelt
102 Purdue B1G
103 Utah State MtnW
104 San Jose State MtnW
105 Rutgers B1G
106 Akron MAC
107 Tulane Amer
108 Bowling Green MAC
109 Cincinnati Amer
110 Nevada MtnW
111 New Mexico State SunBelt
112 Virginia ACC
113 East Carolina Amer
114 UNLV MtnW
115 Florida International CUSA
116 Georgia State SunBelt
117 Massachusetts Ind
118 Ball State MAC
120 Charlotte CUSA
121 Kent State MAC
122 Rice CUSA
123 Marshall CUSA
124 Connecticut Amer
125 Texas State SunBelt
126 Florida Atlantic CUSA
127 Buffalo MAC
128 Fresno State MtnW

Win Probabilities Week 13

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Stanford Rice 99.37%
Alabama Auburn 97.81%
Clemson South Carolina 97.79%
Virginia Tech Virginia 97.10%
Kansas State Kansas 95.72%
Pitt Syracuse 93.36%
Penn State Michigan State 91.95%
Miami FL Duke 91.75%
BYU Utah State 91.26%
USC Notre Dame 90.68%
Northwestern Illinois 89.19%
Georgia Georgia Tech 88.67%
Temple East Carolina 87.18%
Louisville Kentucky 86.95%
San Diego State Colorado State 86.66%
Appalachian State New Mexico State 86.06%
Tennessee Vanderbilt 86.03%
Hawaii Massachusetts 86.00%
Old Dominion Florida International 86.00%
Maryland Rutgers 85.94%
North Carolina North Carolina State 84.39%
Wisconsin Minnesota 83.24%
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 82.89%
Western Kentucky Marshall 82.55%
Oregon Oregon State 82.52%
Troy Texas State 81.08%
Ole Miss Mississippi State 79.24%
Arkansas Missouri 79.21%
Ohio State Michigan 79.21%
Florida State Florida 79.10%
Indiana Purdue 78.87%
South Florida Central Florida 77.92%
Bowling Green Buffalo 76.85%
West Virginia Iowa State 75.65%
Tulsa Cincinnati 75.47%
Wake Forest Boston College 73.89%
Houston Memphis 73.35%
UTSA Charlotte 73.26%
Baylor Texas Tech 72.77%
Boise State Air Force 68.57%
UCLA California 67.57%
Arkansas State Louisiana-Lafayette 67.57%
Ohio Akron 67.51%
Northern Illinois Kent State 67.14%
Idaho South Alabama 65.87%
Washington Washington State 65.78%
Western Michigan Toledo 64.15%
Utah Colorado 63.71%
Connecticut Tulane 63.54%
Navy SMU 62.48%
Texas TCU 62.13%
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss 60.81%
Arizona State Arizona 60.64%
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan 59.46%
Miami OH Ball State 58.97%
UNLV Nevada 58.57%
North Texas UTEP 57.33%
Texas A&M LSU 56.56%
San Jose State Fresno State 56.38%
New Mexico Wyoming 56.38%
Nebraska Iowa 53.68%