Remaining Unbeaten Teams, Week 9

Week 8 knocked out several unbeaten teams, so we are down to just 5. The table below illustrates probabilities of maintaining the unbeaten records listed in the column headers.

Games involving an unbeaten team in Week 10:

Western Michigan at Ball State, Tuesday(!) 8PM ET

Maryland at Michigan, Saturday 3:30PM ET

Alabama at LSU, Saturday 8PM ET

Syracuse at Clemson, Saturday 3:30PM ET

Washington at California, Saturday 10:30PM ET

Team 9-0 10-0 11-0  12-0
Clemson 99.7% 97.5% 95.8% 94.3%
Alabama 75.6% 75.3% 75.3% 72.2%
Western Michigan 81.4% 71.5% 70.0% 51.0%
Washington 78.5% 52.8% 45.0% 31.1%
Michigan 98.6% 91.4% 90.4% 26.0%
Advertisements

Expected Wins after Week 9

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 9. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson               10.696                   11.94 10.5
Alabama               10.725                   11.71 10
Western Michigan                 5.874                   11.40 8.5
Michigan                 9.863                   11.19 10
Washington                 7.982                   11.00 9
Ohio State               10.024                   10.61 9.5
Boise State                 8.774                   10.52 10.5
Texas A&M                 7.188                   10.38 6
San Diego State                 9.509                   10.34 8.5
Louisville                 5.782                   10.11 9
Penn State                 7.519                     9.62 6.5
North Carolina                 7.459                     9.47 8.5
Appalachian State                 8.491                     9.42 8.5
Oklahoma               10.304                     9.34 10
Baylor                 6.917                     9.22 9.5
Troy                 4.259                     9.21 6
Wisconsin                 5.417                     9.18 7
Nebraska                 6.880                     9.18 8.5
South Florida                 7.160                     9.09 8.5
Virginia Tech                 6.840                     9.08 6.5
Utah                 6.851                     9.01 7.5
Houston                 8.424                     9.00 9.5
Middle Tennessee                 5.614                     8.88 7.5
West Virginia                 5.815                     8.81 6.5
Tennessee                 9.526                     8.76 9.5
Florida                 7.848                     8.70 7.5
Western Kentucky                 8.507                     8.56 8.5
Auburn                 7.131                     8.47 6.5
Florida State               10.608                     8.42 9.5
Oklahoma State                 9.048                     8.42 8.5
Toledo                 7.343                     8.35 6.5
Washington State                 6.104                     8.29 7.5
Stanford                 6.800                     8.22 8.5
Temple                 6.917                     8.14 8.5
Navy                 6.785                     8.13 6.5
Wyoming                 3.721                     7.99 3.5
Louisiana Tech                 7.551                     7.95 7.5
Old Dominion                 6.902                     7.90 5
Tulsa                 4.464                     7.87 6.5
Colorado                 3.725                     7.86 4.5
Minnesota                 4.683                     7.82 6
Ohio                 6.502                     7.81 7.5
Southern Miss                 7.317                     7.70 8
USC                 8.496                     7.41 7.5
LSU                 9.469                     7.38 10
BYU                 5.411                     7.35 8
Arkansas                 6.095                     7.12 7.5
Pitt                 6.951                     7.11 7
Central Michigan                 6.860                     6.96 7
Georgia                 9.526                     6.96 8.5
Miami FL                 5.838                     6.89 6.5
New Mexico                 5.260                     6.86 7
Air Force                 6.941                     6.85 8
Kansas State                 6.187                     6.77 5.5
Texas                 6.312                     6.75 6.5
Akron                 6.181                     6.64 5
Wake Forest                 4.248                     6.62 5.5
Kentucky                 4.939                     6.61 5
Memphis                 6.529                     6.54 6.5
Army West Point                 3.011                     6.49 4.5
Iowa                 8.103                     6.44 8.5
Northwestern                 7.294                     6.38 6.5
Georgia Tech                 5.768                     6.37 6.5
Arkansas State                 8.648                     6.30 7.5
Idaho                 4.598                     6.23 3.5
Arizona State                 7.184                     6.17 5
Maryland                 6.131                     6.07 4.5
Colorado State                 6.501                     6.05 5.5
Eastern Michigan                 3.359                     6.01 3
South Carolina                 4.963                     5.99 5
Georgia Southern                 6.955                     5.96 8
Cincinnati                 7.467                     5.96 6.5
South Alabama                 5.333                     5.80 3
Hawaii                 6.363                     5.70 2.5
TCU                 8.113                     5.67 8
UCLA                 9.701                     5.65 8.5
Ball State                 5.274                     5.63 4.5
SMU                 3.343                     5.62 3.5
Indiana                 5.580                     5.58 4.5
Central Florida                 6.794                     5.50 5
Ole Miss                 6.363                     5.47 8.5
Notre Dame                 9.288                     5.35 9.5
North Texas                 3.728                     5.33 2
Boston College                 5.171                     5.33 6.5
Texas Tech                 4.615                     5.28 7
North Carolina State                 5.944                     5.28 6
California                 3.006                     5.14 4
Vanderbilt                 4.449                     5.14 5
UTSA                 4.499                     5.07 4
Louisiana-Lafayette                 5.884                     4.87 6.5
Oregon                 8.917                     4.81 8
Syracuse                 4.208                     4.73 4
Nevada                 6.487                     4.71 6.5
Northern Illinois                 9.760                     4.70 8.5
Utah State                 5.515                     4.42 6.5
East Carolina                 5.334                     4.41 5.5
Charlotte                 5.233                     4.39 2.5
San Jose State                 6.336                     4.19 5
Connecticut                 3.578                     4.16 5
Miami OH                 3.506                     4.12 3.5
Kent State                 4.576                     4.00 4.5
UNLV                 4.474                     3.94 5.5
Purdue                 3.569                     3.93 4.5
UTEP                 5.562                     3.92 5
Michigan State                 9.071                     3.91 7.5
Florida International                 4.270                     3.79 6.5
Georgia State                 4.940                     3.77 4.5
Mississippi State                 6.823                     3.73 6.5
Tulane                 7.604                     3.72 3.5
Duke                 5.502                     3.67 5.5
Arizona                 6.528                     3.55 6
Marshall                 6.147                     3.26 8.5
Texas State                 4.521                     3.22 3
New Mexico State                 3.668                     3.16 3
Buffalo                 6.122                     3.15 5.5
Louisiana-Monroe                 3.652                     3.10 3.5
Rice                 6.585                     2.90 6
Missouri                 6.200                     2.79 5.5
Oregon State                 4.467                     2.68 3.5
Rutgers                 5.198                     2.62 4.5
Virginia                 8.399                     2.51 4.5
Illinois                 4.648                     2.47 4.5
Massachusetts                 3.011                     2.24 2.5
Bowling Green                 6.056                     2.23 6.5
Florida Atlantic                 5.456                     2.12 4.5
Iowa State                 5.565                     2.03 3.5
Fresno State                 4.029                     2.02 3.5
Kansas                 2.335                     1.70 1.5

NCAA 6th Year Database

I have assembled a collection of cases where college football and men’s basketball student athletes have sought a 6th year of eligibility. The database contains summaries of each of those cases, outlining which years a student athlete was active, years they were inactive and reasons for inactivity, and whether they were granted or denied a 6th year. Additionally, I have linked to each student-athlete’s university bio page (when available) as well as a published article related to the ruling. The database can be accessed through the link below as a Google spreadsheet.

If you have any additional cases you would like added to the database, please reference them in the comments section by including student-athlete name, school, and sport.

NCAA 6th Year Database

 

College Football Rankings, Week 9

Updated rankings through Week 9. These ranking are used in Ken Massey’s composite ratings.

Rankings are representative of on-field results only; no preseason information or future projections are used. As a result teams may move a lot week to week, especially early in the season.

Early Playoff Outlook

The first CFP Top 25 for 2016 will be revealed on Tuesday. Now that there are only 4 undefeated teams from Power 5 conferences (Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Washington), it is extremely likely that these 4 will be in the first edition of the playoff field. Western Michigan is the only other undefeated FBS team, and should be featured in the first CFP poll, but history has shown that the playoff committee does not look too kindly upon G5 teams. Expect the Broncos to be in the poll, but don’t be surprised to see them ranked lower here than in the AP or coaches (or BoW) poll. It is possible that the current 4 undefeated Power 5 teams remain undefeated, as none of them will play each other in the regular season or conference championship games. However, it is very unlikely that all 4 run the table. Clemson has the clearest path after getting past their biggest hurdle on Saturday, but Alabama, Michigan, and Washington each have at least one game remaining which could trip them up.

Right now, it looks like the playoff field will be comprised of Alabama, Clemson, the winner of Michigan/Ohio State, and Washington. The Big XII likely played themselves out of a bid with losses by Baylor and West Virginia on Saturday, and the only G5 with even a sliver of a chance is Western Michigan and they’ll need a lot of outside help and favorable view from the committee to be in the conversation at the end of November.

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Clemson ACC
3 Michigan B1G
4 Ohio State B1G
5 Washington PAC12
6 Penn State B1G
7 Texas A&M SEC
8 Wisconsin B1G
9 Colorado PAC12
10 Virginia Tech ACC
11 Louisville ACC
12 Nebraska B1G
13 Auburn SEC
14 USC PAC12
15 Western Michigan MAC
16 Boise State MtnW
17 Florida SEC
18 West Virginia XII
19 Oklahoma XII
20 Tennessee SEC
21 Washington State PAC12
22 Stanford PAC12
23 North Carolina ACC
24 Oklahoma State XII
25 Utah PAC12
26 Florida State ACC
27 Troy SunBelt
28 Houston Amer
29 Baylor XII
30 LSU SEC
31 Minnesota B1G
32 Pitt ACC
33 South Florida Amer
34 Appalachian State SunBelt
35 San Diego State MtnW
36 Kentucky SEC
37 Tulsa Amer
38 Wyoming MtnW
39 Arkansas SEC
40 Kansas State XII
41 California PAC12
42 Western Kentucky CUSA
43 Arizona State PAC12
44 Temple Amer
45 Georgia Tech ACC
46 Texas XII
47 Northwestern B1G
48 Middle Tennessee CUSA
49 Syracuse ACC
50 Navy Amer
51 Wake Forest ACC
52 Vanderbilt SEC
53 Louisiana Tech CUSA
54 Maryland B1G
55 Miami FL ACC
56 Georgia SEC
57 BYU Ind
58 Oregon PAC12
59 Texas Tech XII
60 North Carolina State ACC
61 Iowa B1G
62 Indiana B1G
63 Southern Miss CUSA
64 South Carolina SEC
65 Toledo MAC
66 Ole Miss SEC
67 Boston College ACC
68 UCLA PAC12
69 Old Dominion CUSA
70 Colorado State MtnW
71 Central Florida Amer
72 SMU Amer
73 Idaho SunBelt
74 Oregon State PAC12
75 Memphis Amer
76 Army West Point Ind
77 TCU XII
78 Air Force MtnW
79 New Mexico MtnW
80 Akron MAC
81 Central Michigan MAC
82 Ohio MAC
83 South Alabama SunBelt
84 North Texas CUSA
85 Duke ACC
86 Georgia Southern SunBelt
87 Notre Dame Ind
88 Mississippi State SEC
89 Cincinnati Amer
90 East Carolina Amer
91 Eastern Michigan MAC
92 Rutgers B1G
93 Utah State MtnW
94 Illinois B1G
95 Purdue B1G
96 Michigan State B1G
97 Missouri SEC
98 UTSA CUSA
99 Arizona PAC12
100 Arkansas State SunBelt
101 Louisiana-Lafayette SunBelt
102 Hawaii MtnW
103 Connecticut Amer
104 Georgia State SunBelt
105 Tulane Amer
106 San Jose State MtnW
107 Ball State MAC
108 New Mexico State SunBelt
109 Virginia ACC
110 Louisiana-Monroe SunBelt
111 Kent State MAC
112 Northern Illinois MAC
113 Kansas XII
114 Nevada MtnW
115 Iowa State XII
116 Miami OH MAC
117 UNLV MtnW
118 Rice CUSA
119 Texas State SunBelt
120 Charlotte CUSA
121 Marshall CUSA
122 Florida International CUSA
123 UTEP CUSA
124 Massachusetts Ind
125 Fresno State MtnW
126 Bowling Green MAC
127 Buffalo MAC
128 Florida Atlantic CUSA

 

Week 9 Win Probabilities

Win probabilities for Week 9

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Texas A&M New Mexico State                 0.9986
Oklahoma Kansas                 0.9980
Ohio State Northwestern                 0.9859
Mississippi State Samford                 0.9787
Wake Forest Army West Point                 0.9264
Penn State Purdue                 0.9209
Michigan Michigan State                 0.9068
Toledo Ohio                 0.9060
Louisville Virginia                 0.8867
Arkansas State Louisiana-Monroe                 0.8847
Louisiana Tech Rice                 0.8838
Central Michigan Kent State                 0.8761
Tennessee South Carolina                 0.8709
TCU Texas Tech                 0.8695
Southern Miss Marshall                 0.8623
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic                 0.8603
USC California                 0.8594
Boise State Wyoming                 0.8430
North Carolina State Boston College                 0.8401
Akron Buffalo                 0.8140
Eastern Michigan Miami OH                 0.8036
San Diego State Utah State                 0.7844
Stanford Arizona                 0.7818
Oklahoma State West Virginia                 0.7622
Kansas State Iowa State                 0.7576
Georgia Tech Duke                 0.7550
Memphis Tulsa                 0.7490
Houston Central Florida                 0.7421
Washington State Oregon State                 0.7407
Hawaii New Mexico                 0.7237
Baylor Texas                 0.7085
Old Dominion UTEP                 0.6987
Minnesota Illinois                 0.6935
San Jose State UNLV                 0.6806
South Alabama Georgia State                 0.6806
Clemson Florida State                 0.6673
East Carolina Connecticut                 0.6573
Massachusetts Wagner                 0.6429
Oregon Arizona State                 0.6363
Middle Tennessee Florida International                 0.6208
Georgia Florida                 0.6193
Utah Washington                 0.6182
South Florida Navy                 0.6153
Appalachian State Georgia Southern                 0.6110
Pitt Virginia Tech                 0.6029
Air Force Fresno State                 0.6024
Temple Cincinnati                 0.5699
Wisconsin Nebraska                 0.5670
Kentucky Missouri                 0.5604
Notre Dame Miami FL                 0.5454
Tulane SMU                 0.5408
Auburn Ole Miss                 0.5158
Indiana Maryland                 0.5141
UTSA North Texas                 0.5089

Ticket Watch Week 9

Games between ranked teams lead this week’s slate of highest entry prices. Worst deal of the week is clearly Texas A&M -43.5 hosting New Mexico State for $74. Best deal looks like Pitt +4.5 hosting #25 Virginia Tech for only $9.

2016wk9ticketwatch

Remaining Unbeaten Teams, Week 8

There are 9 unbeaten teams this week. The table below illustrates probabilities of maintaining the unbeaten records listed in the column headers (note that teams who are already 7-0 or 8-0 show a 100% probability in the 7-0  and 8-0 columns).

Games involving an unbeaten team in Week 9 (all road games!):

Michigan at Michigan State, Noon ET Saturday

West Virginia at Oklahoma State, Noon ET Saturday

Baylor at Texas, 3:30PM ET Saturday

Washington at Utah, 3:30PM ET Saturday

Nebraska at Wisconsin, 7PM ET Saturday

Boise State at Wyoming, 7PM ET Saturday

Clemson at Florida State, 8PM ET Saturday

Bye Week: Alabama, Western Michigan

Team 7-0 8-0 9-0 10-0 11-0  12-0
Alabama 100% 100% 82.4% 82.3% 82.2% 79.9%
Clemson 100% 66.7% 66.4% 64.3% 62.5% 61.9%
Boise State 100% 84.4% 80.6% 65.5% 63.5% 52.5%
Western Michigan 100% 100% 80.2% 71.5% 70.5% 42.4%
Michigan 100% 91.0% 89.4% 82.8% 82.0% 26.5%
Washington 100% 54.8% 40.5% 26.4% 21.7% 14.6%
Baylor 70.6% 56.8% 18.3% 16.1% 13.8% 8.7%
West Virginia 23.9% 23.2% 10.6% 3.3% 2.7% 1.0%
Nebraska 100% 35.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4%