Week 2 Win Probabilities

Win probabilities for Week 2

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Florida State Charleston Southern           0.9986
LSU Jacksonville State           0.9983
Clemson Troy           0.9980
Georgia Nicholls State           0.9968
Oklahoma Louisiana-Monroe           0.9928
Ohio State Tulsa           0.9917
Texas A&M Prairie View A&M           0.9911
Alabama Western Kentucky           0.9850
Ole Miss Wofford           0.9850
UCLA UNLV           0.9850
USC Utah State           0.9710
Houston Lamar           0.9695
Arizona Grambling State           0.9678
Washington Idaho           0.9641
Northwestern Illinois State           0.9612
Georgia Tech Mercer           0.9572
Michigan Central Florida           0.9491
Notre Dame Nevada           0.9422
Missouri Eastern Michigan           0.9379
Toledo Maine           0.9376
West Virginia Youngstown State           0.9356
Rutgers Howard           0.9321
Southern Miss Savannah State           0.9304
Louisiana Tech South Carolina State           0.9229
Tulane Southern           0.9120
Nebraska Wyoming           0.9034
Colorado Idaho State           0.9028
Oklahoma State Central Michigan           0.9002
Florida Kentucky           0.8971
Baylor SMU           0.8956
Texas UTEP           0.8936
Temple Stony Brook           0.8856
San Jose State Portland State           0.8821
Miami FL Florida Atlantic           0.8815
Western Michigan North Carolina Central           0.8781
Minnesota Indiana State           0.8755
Louisiana-Lafayette McNeese State           0.8706
Arizona State Texas Tech           0.8683
Hawaii Tennessee-Martin           0.8677
Bowling Green North Dakota           0.8637
Marshall Morgan State           0.8617
Auburn Arkansas State           0.8594
Tennessee Virginia Tech           0.8407
San Diego State California           0.8306
Navy Connecticut           0.8217
Iowa Iowa State           0.8022
Wisconsin Akron           0.8019
Charlotte Elon           0.7976
Kent State North Carolina A&T           0.7907
Indiana Ball State           0.7904
Duke Wake Forest           0.7872
Utah BYU           0.7872
Appalachian State Old Dominion           0.7849
Vanderbilt Middle Tennessee           0.7660
Maryland Florida International           0.7654
Fresno State Sacramento State           0.7596
Mississippi State South Carolina           0.7588
Air Force Georgia State           0.7527
Oregon Virginia           0.7438
Rice Army West Point           0.7358
North Carolina Illinois           0.7248
Colorado State UTSA           0.7102
Miami OH Eastern Illinois           0.6734
North Texas Bethune-Cookman           0.6613
Boise State Washington State           0.6527
Boston College Massachusetts           0.6443
Cincinnati Purdue           0.6038
North Carolina State East Carolina           0.5883
TCU Arkansas           0.5814
Pitt Penn State           0.5730
Ohio Kansas           0.5656
Georgia Southern South Alabama           0.5650
Northern Illinois South Florida           0.5633
Louisville Syracuse           0.5630
New Mexico State New Mexico           0.5089
Advertisements

Expected Wins after Week 1

Expected wins have been updated for Week 1 results. Note that some teams may have a decreased expected win total despite a win in Week 1. This occurred because their future schedule is projected as more difficult after Week 1 than it was projected in the preseason. Additionally, the preseason expected wins remain in the table for comparison.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson                 10.70                   11.04 10.5
Alabama                 10.72                   10.95 10
Florida State                 10.61                   10.80 9.5
Ohio State                 10.02                     9.99 9.5
Georgia                   9.53                     9.94 8.5
Michigan                   9.86                     9.82 10
Tennessee                   9.53                     9.61 9.5
San Diego State                   9.51                     9.52 8.5
Houston                   8.42                     9.47 9.5
Oklahoma                 10.30                     9.37 10
Boise State                   8.77                     9.18 10.5
Michigan State                   9.07                     9.10 7.5
UCLA                   9.70                     9.09 8.5
Oklahoma State                   9.05                     9.07 8.5
Oregon                   8.92                     8.83 8
Western Kentucky                   8.51                     8.73 8.5
Northern Illinois                   9.76                     8.71 8.5
Notre Dame                   9.29                     8.56 9.5
LSU                   9.47                     8.49 10
Toledo                   7.34                     8.43 6.5
Appalachian State                   8.49                     8.39 8.5
Southern Miss                   7.32                     8.37 8
USC                   8.50                     8.28 7.5
Iowa                   8.10                     8.15 8.5
TCU                   8.11                     8.14 8
Washington                   7.98                     8.10 9
Florida                   7.85                     7.90 7.5
Arkansas State                   8.65                     7.75 7.5
Texas A&M                   7.19                     7.66 6
Penn State                   7.52                     7.59 6.5
Cincinnati                   7.47                     7.49 6.5
Louisiana Tech                   7.55                     7.33 7.5
Virginia                   8.40                     7.30 4.5
Arizona State                   7.18                     7.25 5
South Florida                   7.16                     7.23 8.5
North Carolina                   7.46                     7.22 8.5
Air Force                   6.94                     7.15 8
Stanford                   6.80                     7.10 8.5
Georgia Southern                   6.96                     7.10 8
Texas                   6.31                     7.09 6.5
Old Dominion                   6.90                     7.06 5
Pitt                   6.95                     7.03 7
Nebraska                   6.88                     6.96 8.5
Virginia Tech                   6.84                     6.95 6.5
Utah                   6.85                     6.95 7.5
Central Michigan                   6.86                     6.91 7
Central Florida                   6.79                     6.90 5
Tulane                   7.60                     6.89 3.5
Baylor                   6.92                     6.86 9.5
Navy                   6.78                     6.78 6.5
Auburn                   7.13                     6.78 6.5
Western Michigan                   5.87                     6.78 8.5
Nevada                   6.49                     6.67 6.5
Memphis                   6.53                     6.58 6.5
Wisconsin                   5.42                     6.46 7
South Alabama                   5.33                     6.39 3
Rice                   6.58                     6.36 6
Arkansas                   6.09                     6.36 7.5
West Virginia                   5.81                     6.35 6.5
BYU                   5.41                     6.35 8
Ball State                   5.27                     6.35 4.5
Northwestern                   7.29                     6.29 6.5
Akron                   6.18                     6.28 5
Maryland                   6.13                     6.19 4.5
Ole Miss                   6.36                     6.19 8.5
Marshall                   6.15                     6.14 8.5
Georgia Tech                   5.77                     6.14 6.5
Bowling Green                   6.06                     6.06 6.5
North Carolina State                   5.94                     6.03 6
Louisville                   5.78                     6.01 9
Kansas State                   6.19                     5.99 5.5
Indiana                   5.58                     5.92 4.5
Middle Tennessee                   5.61                     5.91 7.5
UTEP                   5.56                     5.87 5
Temple                   6.92                     5.84 8.5
Colorado State                   6.50                     5.84 5.5
Arizona                   6.53                     5.83 6
Mississippi State                   6.82                     5.74 6.5
South Carolina                   4.96                     5.72 5
Texas State                   4.52                     5.70 3
Miami FL                   5.84                     5.70 6.5
Utah State                   5.52                     5.66 6.5
Hawaii                   6.36                     5.66 2.5
Ohio                   6.50                     5.64 7.5
San Jose State                   6.34                     5.60 5
New Mexico                   5.26                     5.51 7
East Carolina                   5.33                     5.48 5.5
Duke                   5.50                     5.47 5.5
Missouri                   6.20                     5.47 5.5
Minnesota                   4.68                     5.43 6
Louisiana-Lafayette                   5.88                     5.36 6.5
Tulsa                   4.46                     5.13 6.5
Florida Atlantic                   5.46                     5.09 4.5
Washington State                   6.10                     5.05 7.5
Charlotte                   5.23                     5.03 2.5
Rutgers                   5.20                     4.94 4.5
Boston College                   5.17                     4.88 6.5
Wake Forest                   4.25                     4.85 5.5
UTSA                   4.50                     4.83 4
Buffalo                   6.12                     4.83 5.5
Idaho                   4.60                     4.82 3.5
UNLV                   4.47                     4.81 5.5
Illinois                   4.65                     4.78 4.5
Wyoming                   3.72                     4.77 3.5
Texas Tech                   4.61                     4.74 7
Kent State                   4.58                     4.57 4.5
Iowa State                   5.56                     4.50 3.5
Troy                   4.26                     4.49 6
Colorado                   3.72                     4.26 4.5
Kentucky                   4.94                     4.24 5
Syracuse                   4.21                     4.23 4
SMU                   3.34                     4.18 3.5
Georgia State                   4.94                     4.17 4.5
Army West Point                   3.01                     4.15 4.5
Louisiana-Monroe                   3.65                     4.03 3.5
Florida International                   4.27                     3.96 6.5
Fresno State                   4.03                     3.89 3.5
Connecticut                   3.58                     3.87 5
Oregon State                   4.47                     3.83 3.5
Vanderbilt                   4.45                     3.80 5
Purdue                   3.57                     3.71 4.5
Eastern Michigan                   3.36                     3.63 3
California                   3.01                     3.56 4
Miami OH                   3.51                     3.38 3.5
New Mexico State                   3.67                     3.21 3
Massachusetts                   3.01                     3.01 2.5
North Texas                   3.73                     2.95 2
Kansas                   2.33                     2.74 1.5

Ticket Watch Week 2

Week 2 does not feature any games with two top 25 teams, but does feature one unique venue: Tennessee will host Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway, which can seat approximately 150,000 and is expected to set the record for largest crowd ever at a college football game. Despite the awful sight-lines for attending this game, the novelty of being part of the largest crowd ever commands a decent price; enough for the most expensive entry-price this week.

All top 25 games and their entry prices can be viewed in the table below.

2016wk2ticketwatch

National Championship Coaches

The following table lists coaches who have already won a national championship by year. Championships recognized in this table are the AP Poll and Coaches Poll for the years prior to the College Football Playoff, and only the CFP champion starting at its inauguration in 2014. A coach’s name is added to the list only in the years after which they earn a national championship. For example, Jimbo Fisher won his first national championship in the 2013 season so his first appearance on this list is in 2014.

5 7 7 7
2016 2015 2014 2013
Nick Saban Nick Saban Nick Saban Nick Saban
Jimbo Fisher Jimbo Fisher Jimbo Fisher Les Miles
Les Miles Les Miles Les Miles Urban Meyer
Urban Meyer Urban Meyer Urban Meyer Bob Stoops
Bob Stoops Bob Stoops Bob Stoops Steve Spurrier
Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier Mack Brown
Larry Coker Larry Coker Larry Coker
8 10 10 12
2012 2011 2010 2009
Nick Saban Nick Saban Nick Saban Nick Saban
Gene Chizik Dennis Erickson Dennis Erickson Dennis Erickson
Les Miles Gene Chizik Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger
Urban Meyer Howard Schnellenberger Urban Meyer Urban Meyer
Bob Stoops Les Miles Les Miles Bobby Bowden
Steve Spurrier Bob Stoops Jim Tressel Les Miles
Mack Brown Joe Paterno Bob Stoops Jim Tressel
Larry Coker Steve Spurrier Joe Paterno Bob Stoops
Mack Brown Steve Spurrier Joe Paterno
Larry Coker Mack Brown Steve Spurrier
Mack Brown
Pete Carroll
13 13 12 10
2008 2007 2006 2005
Nick Saban Nick Saban Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger
Dennis Erickson Dennis Erickson Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden
Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger Dennis Erickson Larry Coker
Urban Meyer Urban Meyer Larry Coker Lloyd Carr
Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden Lloyd Carr Jim Tressel
Les Miles Lloyd Carr Jim Tressel Bob Stoops
Jim Tressel Jim Tressel Bob Stoops Joe Paterno
Bob Stoops Bob Stoops Joe Paterno Steve Spurrier
Joe Paterno Joe Paterno Steve Spurrier Phil Fulmer
Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier Phil Fulmer Pete Carroll
Phil Fulmer Phil Fulmer Mack Brown
Mack Brown Mack Brown Pete Carroll
Pete Carroll Pete Carroll
11 9 9 9
2004 2003 2002 2001
Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger
Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden Steve Spurrier
Nick Saban Larry Coker Larry Coker Bobby Bowden
Larry Coker Lloyd Carr Lloyd Carr Lloyd Carr
Lloyd Carr Jim Tressel Bob Stoops Bob Stoops
Jim Tressel Bob Stoops Dennis Erickson Dennis Erickson
Bob Stoops Joe Paterno Joe Paterno Joe Paterno
Joe Paterno Lou Holtz Lou Holtz Lou Holtz
Lou Holtz Phil Fulmer Phil Fulmer Phil Fulmer
Phil Fulmer
Pete Carroll
8 8 5 6 8
2000 1999 1998 1997 1996
LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards Danny Ford Gene Stallings
Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier Steve Spurrier LaVell Edwards Danny Ford
Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden Steve Spurrier LaVell Edwards
Lloyd Carr Lloyd Carr Lloyd Carr Bobby Bowden Bobby Bowden
Dennis Erickson Dennis Erickson Joe Paterno Tom Osborne Tom Osborne
Joe Paterno Joe Paterno Joe Paterno Lou Holtz
Lou Holtz Lou Holtz Joe Paterno
Phil Fulmer Phil Fulmer Johnny Majors
9 10 9 8
1995 1994 1993 1992
Gene Stallings Gene Stallings Gene Stallings LaVell Edwards
Danny Ford Danny Ford Danny Ford Bill McCartney
LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards Howard Schnellenberger
Bobby Bowden Bill McCartney Bill McCartney Dennis Erickson
Tom Osborne Bobby Bowden Howard Schnellenberger Lou Holtz
Lou Holtz Howard Schnellenberger Dennis Erickson Joe Paterno
Howard Schnellenberger Dennis Erickson Lou Holtz Johnny Majors
Joe Paterno Lou Holtz Joe Paterno Don James
Johnny Majors Joe Paterno Johnny Majors
Johnny Majors
7 6 6
1991 1990 1989
LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards
Bill McCartney Howard Schnellenberger Danny Ford
Howard Schnellenberger Dennis Erickson Howard Schnellenberger
Dennis Erickson Lou Holtz Lou Holtz
Lou Holtz Joe Paterno Joe Paterno
Joe Paterno Johnny Majors Johnny Majors
Johnny Majors
8 7
1988 1987
LaVell Edwards LaVell Edwards
Danny Ford Danny Ford
Vince Dooley Vince Dooley
Howard Schnellenberger Howard Schnellenberger
Jimmy Johnson Barry Switzer
Barry Switzer Joe Paterno
Joe Paterno Johnny Majors
Johnny Majors

The 2007 and 2008 seasons saw the most active national championship coaches, with 13. That number has been declining in the years since for a few reasons. First, coaching careers are now much shorter than in previous decades. Gene Chizik was fired two year after adding his name to this list; that wouldn’t have happened 20 years ago. Next, only 1 team per year has been recognized as a champion in recent years whereas it used to be common to see a split champion in the two major polls. Finally, the best coaches tend to continue to win. Urban Meyer and Nick Saban have won 6 of the last 8 championships.