Week 5 Win Probabilities

A few of the win probabilities this week are a bit confusing. Lamar Jackson is extremely difficult to quantify. He is the highest rated player in my model, yet it is not enough to boost Louisville beyond a long-shot for this week. I’ve thought about breaking the model’s rules for him, but I’d rather not go down the path of manually adjusting for extreme outliers. Besides, even if I were to double Jackson’s player value Louisville would still have a less than 10% win probability. That doesn’t mean they won’t win, as this game could very well fall in the small percentage that favors Louisville. This metric merely implies Clemson is significantly more likely to win, but nothing is guaranteed

My model doesn’t like Wisconsin; the preseason projection was that they would struggle to make a bowl game. Clearly that isn’t the case, as they’ve beaten two teams with considerably more talented rosters than the Badgers. Paul Chryst is currently rated as the 3rd most efficient coach in my model (behind Tom Herman and Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo), but their roster is ranked 43rd. Like Louisville, the small win probability is not a guarantee that they can’t win this week, it just implies that they are less likely to win than Michigan.

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Alabama Kentucky                 0.9876
Ohio State Rutgers                 0.9876
Arkansas Alcorn State                 0.9845
Auburn Louisiana-Monroe                 0.9807
LSU Missouri                 0.9546
Clemson Louisville                 0.9497
Western Kentucky Houston Baptist                 0.9336
Houston Connecticut                 0.9333
Maryland Purdue                 0.9238
Notre Dame Syracuse                 0.9206
Ole Miss Memphis                 0.8821
Appalachian State Georgia State                 0.8795
UCLA Arizona                 0.8790
Pitt Marshall                 0.8741
Michigan Wisconsin                 0.8706
Penn State Minnesota                 0.8706
Boise State Utah State                 0.8539
Texas Tech Kansas                 0.8499
Florida State North Carolina                 0.8424
Nebraska Illinois                 0.8396
Louisiana Tech UTEP                 0.8312
Temple SMU                 0.7956
Texas State Incarnate Word                 0.7921
Oklahoma State Texas                 0.7757
San Diego State South Alabama                 0.7706
Bowling Green Eastern Michigan                 0.7651
Southern Miss Rice                 0.7631
Baylor Iowa State                 0.7599
Texas A&M South Carolina                 0.7599
Colorado State Wyoming                 0.7522
Michigan State Indiana                 0.7499
Boston College Buffalo                 0.7473
Florida Vanderbilt                 0.7369
Colorado Oregon State                 0.7269
Iowa Northwestern                 0.7269
North Carolina State Wake Forest                 0.7208
USC Arizona State                 0.7133
Duke Virginia                 0.7096
Oregon Washington State                 0.6938
Utah California                 0.6780
Oklahoma TCU                 0.6722
Ohio Miami OH                 0.6512
UNLV Fresno State                 0.6507
Northern Illinois Ball State                 0.6495
Washington Stanford                 0.6435
Central Michigan Western Michigan                 0.6363
Hawaii Nevada                 0.5995
Old Dominion Charlotte                 0.5957
Cincinnati South Florida                 0.5923
West Virginia Kansas State                 0.5825
Florida International Florida Atlantic                 0.5805
Idaho Troy                 0.5776
North Texas Middle Tennessee                 0.5730
Georgia Tennessee                 0.5713
Akron Kent State                 0.5656
Miami FL Georgia Tech                 0.5569
Navy Air Force                 0.5469
Louisiana-Lafayette New Mexico State                 0.5446
Central Florida East Carolina                 0.5339
Tulane Massachusetts                 0.5339
San Jose State New Mexico                 0.5081
Toledo BYU                 0.5060

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