Expected Wins after Week 4

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 4. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Overachieving

Wisconsin (+3.09 from preseason)

Wake Forest (+2.85)

Louisville (+2.83)

Western Michigan & Army West Point (+2.48)

Underachieving*

Northern Illinois (-3.61)

Arkansas State (-2.86)

Northwestern (-2.77)

Notre Dame (-2.50)

*Omitting teams where the 1st year coaching adjustment accounts for the change in expectations.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson                 10.70                   11.20 10.5
Alabama                 10.72                   10.97 10
Ohio State                 10.02                   10.92 9.5
San Diego State                   9.51                   10.44 8.5
Houston                   8.42                   10.24 9.5
Michigan                   9.86                   10.16 10
Boise State                   8.77                   10.01 10.5
Florida State                 10.61                     9.62 9.5
Tennessee                   9.53                     9.59 9.5
Texas A&M                   7.19                     9.50 6
Georgia                   9.53                     9.48 8.5
Stanford                   6.80                     8.89 8.5
Baylor                   6.92                     8.89 9.5
Utah                   6.85                     8.86 7.5
Toledo                   7.34                     8.77 6.5
Oklahoma                 10.30                     8.68 10
Louisville                   5.78                     8.61 9
Washington                   7.98                     8.57 9
Wisconsin                   5.42                     8.51 7
Michigan State                   9.07                     8.50 7.5
Western Michigan                   5.87                     8.35 8.5
Appalachian State                   8.49                     8.33 8.5
UCLA                   9.70                     8.30 8.5
Air Force                   6.94                     8.20 8
Miami FL                   5.84                     8.10 6.5
South Florida                   7.16                     8.08 8.5
Nebraska                   6.88                     8.04 8.5
North Carolina                   7.46                     8.02 8.5
Central Michigan                   6.86                     7.94 7
Arizona State                   7.18                     7.92 5
Cincinnati                   7.47                     7.85 6.5
LSU                   9.47                     7.83 10
Iowa                   8.10                     7.80 8.5
TCU                   8.11                     7.76 8
Maryland                   6.13                     7.75 4.5
Florida                   7.85                     7.75 7.5
Western Kentucky                   8.51                     7.65 8.5
Southern Miss                   7.32                     7.64 8
Navy                   6.78                     7.60 6.5
Oklahoma State                   9.05                     7.57 8.5
Memphis                   6.53                     7.34 6.5
Oregon                   8.92                     7.29 8
Georgia Southern                   6.96                     7.23 8
Ball State                   5.27                     7.12 4.5
Wake Forest                   4.25                     7.10 5.5
West Virginia                   5.81                     7.01 6.5
Auburn                   7.13                     6.99 6.5
Virginia Tech                   6.84                     6.97 6.5
Arkansas                   6.09                     6.90 7.5
Old Dominion                   6.90                     6.89 5
Pitt                   6.95                     6.86 7
Middle Tennessee                   5.61                     6.83 7.5
Notre Dame                   9.29                     6.79 9.5
Texas                   6.31                     6.78 6.5
Penn State                   7.52                     6.69 6.5
Central Florida                   6.79                     6.64 5
Georgia Tech                   5.77                     6.62 6.5
Akron                   6.18                     6.49 5
Minnesota                   4.68                     6.45 6
Ole Miss                   6.36                     6.40 8.5
Nevada                   6.49                     6.32 6.5
Ohio                   6.50                     6.32 7.5
Troy                   4.26                     6.29 6
Louisiana Tech                   7.55                     6.27 7.5
Kansas State                   6.19                     6.23 5.5
USC                   8.50                     6.23 7.5
Temple                   6.92                     6.15 8.5
Northern Illinois                   9.76                     6.15 8.5
Tulsa                   4.46                     6.14 6.5
Colorado State                   6.50                     5.98 5.5
Mississippi State                   6.82                     5.82 6.5
East Carolina                   5.33                     5.81 5.5
Arkansas State                   8.65                     5.79 7.5
North Texas                   3.73                     5.71 2
Utah State                   5.52                     5.66 6.5
Hawaii                   6.36                     5.62 2.5
South Alabama                   5.33                     5.56 3
Arizona                   6.53                     5.50 6
Army West Point                   3.01                     5.49 4.5
Idaho                   4.60                     5.48 3.5
North Carolina State                   5.94                     5.48 6
South Carolina                   4.96                     5.45 5
Duke                   5.50                     5.43 5.5
Texas Tech                   4.61                     5.40 7
Boston College                   5.17                     5.39 6.5
Louisiana-Lafayette                   5.88                     5.37 6.5
Colorado                   3.72                     5.36 4.5
Missouri                   6.20                     5.33 5.5
Texas State                   4.52                     5.28 3
Tulane                   7.60                     5.22 3.5
Marshall                   6.15                     5.15 8.5
Indiana                   5.58                     5.08 4.5
San Jose State                   6.34                     5.02 5
Eastern Michigan                   3.36                     5.01 3
BYU                   5.41                     4.88 8
Kentucky                   4.94                     4.83 5
Bowling Green                   6.06                     4.81 6.5
Washington State                   6.10                     4.81 7.5
New Mexico                   5.26                     4.72 7
Buffalo                   6.12                     4.69 5.5
Northwestern                   7.29                     4.53 6.5
UTEP                   5.56                     4.48 5
Rutgers                   5.20                     4.45 4.5
Wyoming                   3.72                     4.40 3.5
California                   3.01                     4.39 4
Vanderbilt                   4.45                     4.37 5
Florida Atlantic                   5.46                     4.33 4.5
SMU                   3.34                     4.26 3.5
Rice                   6.58                     4.25 6
Connecticut                   3.58                     4.24 5
Charlotte                   5.23                     4.24 2.5
Louisiana-Monroe                   3.65                     3.98 3.5
Purdue                   3.57                     3.90 4.5
Kent State                   4.58                     3.89 4.5
UTSA                   4.50                     3.80 4
Virginia                   8.40                     3.79 4.5
UNLV                   4.47                     3.76 5.5
Georgia State                   4.94                     3.71 4.5
Syracuse                   4.21                     3.60 4
Iowa State                   5.56                     3.59 3.5
Fresno State                   4.03                     3.49 3.5
New Mexico State                   3.67                     3.26 3
Massachusetts                   3.01                     3.24 2.5
Illinois                   4.65                     3.17 4.5
Florida International                   4.27                     2.92 6.5
Oregon State                   4.47                     2.85 3.5
Miami OH                   3.51                     2.22 3.5
Kansas                   2.33                     2.10 1.5
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