Expected Wins after Week 3

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 2. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

*Note: I adjusted the formula for experienced coaches in their first year with a team so that their prior experience is no longer included in their coaching efficiency rating. I had to do this because Virginia’s projected wins were way overvalued due to Mendenhall’s track record, but it is now clear he will not meet his previous levels of efficiency. This also had a big impact on South Carolina, Iowa State, and Tulane; their new expected win totals more accurately reflect their teams’ outlook.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson                 10.70                   11.08 10.5
Alabama                 10.72                   10.97 10
Ohio State                 10.02                   10.68 9.5
San Diego State                   9.51                   10.36 8.5
Georgia                   9.53                   10.11 8.5
Michigan                   9.86                   10.05 10
Houston                   8.42                   10.04 9.5
Tennessee                   9.53                     9.75 9.5
Boise State                   8.77                     9.54 10.5
Florida State                 10.61                     9.46 9.5
Michigan State                   9.07                     9.40 7.5
UCLA                   9.70                     9.16 8.5
Western Kentucky                   8.51                     8.82 8.5
Oklahoma                 10.30                     8.78 10
Toledo                   7.34                     8.78 6.5
Texas A&M                   7.19                     8.57 6
Central Michigan                   6.86                     8.54 7
Oregon                   8.92                     8.44 8
LSU                   9.47                     8.41 10
Florida                   7.85                     8.32 7.5
South Florida                   7.16                     8.30 8.5
Baylor                   6.92                     8.25 9.5
Utah                   6.85                     8.22 7.5
Louisville                   5.78                     8.22 9
Oklahoma State                   9.05                     8.17 8.5
Washington                   7.98                     7.98 9
Stanford                   6.80                     7.96 8.5
Georgia Southern                   6.96                     7.96 8
TCU                   8.11                     7.89 8
Appalachian State                   8.49                     7.81 8.5
North Carolina                   7.46                     7.80 8.5
Notre Dame                   9.29                     7.78 9.5
Cincinnati                   7.47                     7.78 6.5
Maryland                   6.13                     7.70 4.5
Arizona State                   7.18                     7.67 5
Navy                   6.78                     7.65 6.5
Miami FL                   5.84                     7.64 6.5
Western Michigan                   5.87                     7.56 8.5
Nebraska                   6.88                     7.55 8.5
Air Force                   6.94                     7.49 8
Pitt                   6.95                     7.48 7
Iowa                   8.10                     7.45 8.5
Wisconsin                   5.42                     7.40 7
Northern Illinois                   9.76                     7.35 8.5
Arkansas                   6.09                     7.19 7.5
USC                   8.50                     7.15 7.5
Southern Miss                   7.32                     7.13 8
Akron                   6.18                     7.05 5
Memphis                   6.53                     6.93 6.5
Penn State                   7.52                     6.91 6.5
Louisiana Tech                   7.55                     6.86 7.5
Nevada                   6.49                     6.85 6.5
Georgia Tech                   5.77                     6.81 6.5
Arkansas State                   8.65                     6.79 7.5
Virginia Tech                   6.84                     6.75 6.5
Old Dominion                   6.90                     6.60 5
Texas                   6.31                     6.53 6.5
West Virginia                   5.81                     6.52 6.5
Wake Forest                   4.25                     6.36 5.5
Colorado State                   6.50                     6.33 5.5
Utah State                   5.52                     6.32 6.5
South Carolina                   4.96                     6.30 5
Ball State                   5.27                     6.28 4.5
Kansas State                   6.19                     6.26 5.5
Louisiana-Lafayette                   5.88                     6.17 6.5
Auburn                   7.13                     6.15 6.5
Central Florida                   6.79                     6.15 5
East Carolina                   5.33                     6.14 5.5
Middle Tennessee                   5.61                     6.13 7.5
Ohio                   6.50                     6.13 7.5
Minnesota                   4.68                     5.98 6
Indiana                   5.58                     5.94 4.5
Temple                   6.92                     5.92 8.5
Arizona                   6.53                     5.87 6
Mississippi State                   6.82                     5.84 6.5
Ole Miss                   6.36                     5.83 8.5
Troy                   4.26                     5.77 6
Army West Point                   3.01                     5.72 4.5
BYU                   5.41                     5.70 8
Texas State                   4.52                     5.63 3
Hawaii                   6.36                     5.58 2.5
North Carolina State                   5.94                     5.56 6
Marshall                   6.15                     5.52 8.5
Tulsa                   4.46                     5.51 6.5
San Jose State                   6.34                     5.46 5
South Alabama                   5.33                     5.39 3
Northwestern                   7.29                     5.35 6.5
Boston College                   5.17                     5.32 6.5
Bowling Green                   6.06                     5.27 6.5
Missouri                   6.20                     5.25 5.5
Texas Tech                   4.61                     5.18 7
Rutgers                   5.20                     5.08 4.5
Rice                   6.58                     5.06 6
Connecticut                   3.58                     4.88 5
Wyoming                   3.72                     4.87 3.5
Florida Atlantic                   5.46                     4.87 4.5
UTEP                   5.56                     4.86 5
New Mexico                   5.26                     4.73 7
Washington State                   6.10                     4.70 7.5
Idaho                   4.60                     4.67 3.5
North Texas                   3.73                     4.62 2
Tulane                   7.60                     4.56 3.5
UNLV                   4.47                     4.53 5.5
SMU                   3.34                     4.48 3.5
Eastern Michigan                   3.36                     4.46 3
Duke                   5.50                     4.44 5.5
Charlotte                   5.23                     4.43 2.5
Buffalo                   6.12                     4.41 5.5
Colorado                   3.72                     4.23 4.5
UTSA                   4.50                     4.19 4
California                   3.01                     4.16 4
Kentucky                   4.94                     4.02 5
Fresno State                   4.03                     4.01 3.5
Louisiana-Monroe                   3.65                     3.91 3.5
Kent State                   4.58                     3.84 4.5
Oregon State                   4.47                     3.84 3.5
Georgia State                   4.94                     3.66 4.5
Vanderbilt                   4.45                     3.64 5
New Mexico State                   3.67                     3.57 3
Virginia                   8.40                     3.36 4.5
Massachusetts                   3.01                     3.34 2.5
Illinois                   4.65                     3.25 4.5
Florida International                   4.27                     3.21 6.5
Iowa State                   5.56                     3.11 3.5
Purdue                   3.57                     3.10 4.5
Syracuse                   4.21                     2.91 4
Miami OH                   3.51                     2.31 3.5
Kansas                   2.33                     2.13 1.5
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