Week 1 Win Probabilities

After adjusting for attrition, these are the win probabilities for Week 1.

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Michigan State Furman           0.9957
Oregon California-Davis           0.9937
Oklahoma State Southeastern Louisiana           0.9899
Ohio State Bowling Green           0.9859
Florida Massachusetts           0.9853
Virginia Richmond           0.9842
Arizona State Northern Arizona           0.9807
Pitt Villanova           0.9779
TCU South Dakota State           0.9779
Utah Southern Utah           0.9756
Michigan Hawaii           0.9744
San Diego State New Hampshire           0.9724
Virginia Tech Liberty           0.9724
Iowa Miami OH           0.9615
Miami FL Florida A&M           0.9615
Baylor Northwestern State           0.9580
Washington State Eastern Washington           0.9580
Maryland Howard           0.9572
Penn State Kent State           0.9491
North Carolina State William & Mary           0.9434
South Florida Towson           0.9376
Duke North Carolina Central           0.9330
Central Florida South Carolina State           0.9270
Tennessee Appalachian State           0.9238
Iowa State Northern Iowa           0.9235
Georgia Southern Savannah State           0.9227
Cincinnati Tennessee-Martin           0.9189
LSU Wisconsin           0.9152
Mississippi State South Alabama           0.9080
Temple Army West Point           0.9063
Nebraska Fresno State           0.9057
Navy Fordham           0.9054
Central Michigan Presbyterian           0.9040
Memphis Southeast Missouri State           0.8974
Old Dominion Hampton           0.8928
Texas Tech Stephen F. Austin           0.8913
Illinois Murray State           0.8873
Nevada Cal Poly           0.8798
Utah State Weber State           0.8741
Syracuse Colgate           0.8712
Air Force Abilene Christian           0.8677
Akron Virginia Military Institute           0.8677
Oklahoma Houston           0.8603
East Carolina Western Carolina           0.8594
Northern Illinois Wyoming           0.8588
Middle Tennessee Alabama A&M           0.8499
Louisville Charlotte           0.8447
Buffalo Albany           0.8401
Washington Rutgers           0.8381
Arkansas Louisiana Tech           0.8350
Northwestern Western Michigan           0.8324
New Mexico South Dakota           0.8197
Alabama USC           0.8108
Florida State Ole Miss           0.8099
Purdue Eastern Kentucky           0.8076
Florida Atlantic Southern Illinois           0.8056
Western Kentucky Rice           0.8016
UTSA Alabama State           0.7913
Stanford Kansas State           0.7872
UNLV Jackson State           0.7844
Connecticut Maine           0.7654
Idaho Montana State           0.7522
Ohio Texas State           0.7389
Troy Austin Peay           0.7338
Georgia North Carolina           0.7335
Louisiana-Monroe Southern           0.7332
Georgia Tech Boston College           0.7177
Kansas Rhode Island           0.7151
Arkansas State Toledo           0.7119
Indiana Florida International           0.6972
Notre Dame Texas           0.6932
Clemson Auburn           0.6811
Arizona BYU           0.6783
Eastern Michigan Mississippi Valley State           0.6653
Kentucky Southern Miss           0.6512
UTEP New Mexico State           0.6466
Boise State Louisiana-Lafayette           0.6415
Vanderbilt South Carolina           0.5926
Colorado Colorado State           0.5748
UCLA Texas A&M           0.5687
Georgia State Ball State           0.5589
North Texas SMU           0.5555
Tulane Wake Forest           0.5543
San Jose State Tulsa           0.5541
Minnesota Oregon State           0.5440
West Virginia Missouri           0.5152
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