2016 Expected wins

The expected wins reflects only the regular season (i.e. no potential bowl games or conference championship games are factored in to the projection or the over/under). The over/under total is from May, but is the only list I could find that had values for all 128 teams. It has undoubtedly changed a little bit since May for some teams. I will keep a running tally of current expected wins throughout the season and present it in a table alongside preseason expected wins and the over/under totals. Note that the changes from the preseason numbers to current numbers reflect injuries/suspensions that were discovered in fall camp. Additionally, the result of the Hawaii/California game is reflected in the current values.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Alabama                 10.72                   10.74 10
Clemson                 10.70                   10.70 10.5
Florida State                 10.61                   10.63 9.5
Oklahoma                 10.30                   10.31 10
Ohio State                 10.02                   10.03 9.5
Michigan                   9.86                     9.87 10
UCLA                   9.70                     9.72 8.5
Northern Illinois                   9.76                     9.72 8.5
Tennessee                   9.53                     9.55 9.5
Georgia                   9.53                     9.53 8.5
San Diego State                   9.51                     9.52 8.5
LSU                   9.47                     9.49 10
Notre Dame                   9.29                     9.31 9.5
Michigan State                   9.07                     9.07 7.5
Oklahoma State                   9.05                     9.05 8.5
Boise State                   8.77                     8.81 10.5
Oregon                   8.92                     8.77 8
Arkansas State                   8.65                     8.66 7.5
Appalachian State                   8.49                     8.52 8.5
USC                   8.50                     8.52 7.5
Western Kentucky                   8.51                     8.48 8.5
Virginia                   8.40                     8.45 4.5
Houston                   8.42                     8.43 9.5
TCU                   8.11                     8.11 8
Iowa                   8.10                     8.10 8.5
Washington                   7.98                     7.94 9
Florida                   7.85                     7.85 7.5
Tulane                   7.60                     7.62 3.5
Louisiana Tech                   7.55                     7.56 7.5
Penn State                   7.52                     7.52 6.5
North Carolina                   7.46                     7.51 8.5
Cincinnati                   7.47                     7.48 6.5
Toledo                   7.34                     7.35 6.5
Southern Miss                   7.32                     7.32 8
Northwestern                   7.29                     7.31 6.5
Arizona State                   7.18                     7.20 5
South Florida                   7.16                     7.17 8.5
Auburn                   7.13                     7.16 6.5
Pitt                   6.95                     7.00 7
Texas A&M                   7.19                     6.98 6
Old Dominion                   6.90                     6.97 5
Air Force                   6.94                     6.97 8
Georgia Southern                   6.96                     6.96 8
Temple                   6.92                     6.92 8.5
Baylor                   6.92                     6.92 9.5
Nebraska                   6.88                     6.90 8.5
Virginia Tech                   6.84                     6.88 6.5
Central Michigan                   6.86                     6.87 7
Utah                   6.85                     6.86 7.5
Mississippi State                   6.82                     6.85 6.5
Stanford                   6.80                     6.81 8.5
Central Florida                   6.79                     6.80 5
Navy                   6.78                     6.79 6.5
Rice                   6.58                     6.63 6
Arizona                   6.53                     6.55 6
Memphis                   6.53                     6.54 6.5
Nevada                   6.49                     6.51 6.5
Ohio                   6.50                     6.51 7.5
Colorado State                   6.50                     6.50 5.5
San Jose State                   6.34                     6.37 5
Ole Miss                   6.36                     6.36 8.5
Texas                   6.31                     6.31 6.5
Kansas State                   6.19                     6.21 5.5
Marshall                   6.15                     6.20 8.5
Missouri                   6.20                     6.20 5.5
Akron                   6.18                     6.19 5
Buffalo                   6.12                     6.13 5.5
Maryland                   6.13                     6.13 4.5
Washington State                   6.10                     6.12 7.5
Arkansas                   6.09                     6.12 7.5
Hawaii                   6.36                     6.11 2.5
Bowling Green                   6.06                     6.06 6.5
North Carolina State                   5.94                     5.95 6
Western Michigan                   5.87                     5.88 8.5
Louisiana-Lafayette                   5.88                     5.82 6.5
West Virginia                   5.81                     5.81 6.5
Louisville                   5.78                     5.80 9
Georgia Tech                   5.77                     5.80 6.5
Middle Tennessee                   5.61                     5.67 7.5
Miami FL                   5.84                     5.64 6.5
UTEP                   5.56                     5.61 5
Indiana                   5.58                     5.58 4.5
Iowa State                   5.56                     5.57 3.5
Utah State                   5.52                     5.52 6.5
Wisconsin                   5.42                     5.42 7
BYU                   5.41                     5.41 8
Duke                   5.50                     5.38 5.5
South Alabama                   5.33                     5.34 3
Ball State                   5.27                     5.33 4.5
East Carolina                   5.33                     5.32 5.5
New Mexico                   5.26                     5.28 7
Charlotte                   5.23                     5.28 2.5
Rutgers                   5.20                     5.20 4.5
Boston College                   5.17                     5.17 6.5
South Carolina                   4.96                     4.99 5
Florida Atlantic                   5.46                     4.97 4.5
Georgia State                   4.94                     4.94 4.5
Kentucky                   4.94                     4.94 5
Minnesota                   4.68                     4.68 6
Illinois                   4.65                     4.65 4.5
Texas Tech                   4.61                     4.62 7
Idaho                   4.60                     4.61 3.5
Kent State                   4.58                     4.60 4.5
Texas State                   4.52                     4.53 3
UTSA                   4.50                     4.50 4
UNLV                   4.47                     4.50 5.5
Oregon State                   4.47                     4.47 3.5
Vanderbilt                   4.45                     4.46 5
Tulsa                   4.46                     4.39 6.5
Florida International                   4.27                     4.33 6.5
Wake Forest                   4.25                     4.26 5.5
Troy                   4.26                     4.26 6
Syracuse                   4.21                     4.21 4
Fresno State                   4.03                     4.03 3.5
North Texas                   3.73                     3.73 2
Colorado                   3.72                     3.73 4.5
Wyoming                   3.72                     3.72 3.5
New Mexico State                   3.67                     3.68 3
Louisiana-Monroe                   3.65                     3.66 3.5
Connecticut                   3.58                     3.58 5
Purdue                   3.57                     3.57 4.5
Miami OH                   3.51                     3.43 3.5
Eastern Michigan                   3.36                     3.37 3
SMU                   3.34                     3.36 3.5
California                   3.01                     3.11 4
Massachusetts                   3.01                     3.03 2.5
Army West Point                   3.01                     3.02 4.5
Kansas                   2.33                     2.33 1.5
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