Bracket for games through 3/11/16; bracket seeding for use in the Bracket Matrix.
It looks a little bit weird today because some teams that are unlikely to win their conference are coming off of big wins yesterday and their rating is slightly inflated since they haven’t lost yet. My data does not project forward at all; it gives results as if there are no more games remaining so teams like Georgia and Michigan appear a bit higher than their rating will reflect tomorrow if they don’t keep winning.
I’m going to have two more updates before the selection show: one Sunday morning and one right after the last game finishes on Sunday.
Once again I’ll give an overview of the race for the top seeds as well as the bubble watch.
Oklahoma, Miami FL, and Xavier fell out of contention for a 1 seed. Kansas might already have theirs locked up, so long as they don’t lose big to West Virginia. The ACC champion will definitely earn a 1 seed. If Villanova wins today they’ll get a top seed. The 4th spot will either go to Michigan St if they win the Big Ten, or the PAC12 champion.
American: UConn and Temple are still in the running for at-large bids if they don’t earn an autobid. Cincinnati is most likely out, though they could sneak into the First Four.
A10: St Bonaventure and George Washington didn’t do themselves any favors yesterday; both are barely clinging to bids today. VCU, St Joseph’s and Dayton are all safe.
ACC: Georgia Tech is the last team in for now. They’ll probably drop out before the selection show.
Big East: No teams on the bubble. Butler is safely in.
Big Ten: Michigan got a huge win yesterday over Big Ten champion Indiana, and have secured themselves a bid. A bad loss today could see them drop to the First Four, but their name will be called on Sunday.
Big12: Texas Tech is the first team out, though when it’s this close it could really go either way. I’d expect them to be in the field on Sunday, even if my data says otherwise.
PAC12: USC is in a similar situation to Texas Tech, except without as many strong wins on their resume. If only one of these teams gets in, it’ll be Texas Tech over USC.
SEC: I’m still not confident that I’ll get this conference pegged down before the selection show. Georgia looks wildly overseeded at the moment, but if they keep winning they’ll earn themselves a bid. Florida is barely in, and could very likely fall out today or tomorrow. Despite the loss, South Carolina is safely in. Vanderbilt should still make the field as well, though may end up in the First Four.
St Mary’s is getting closer to an at-large bid, though they still need quite a bit to happen over the next two days to move up enough. The Missouri Valley will get two bids, but no other lower-tier conference has a team in the running for an at-large selection.
|1||North Carolina||Atlantic Coast|
|2||Miami FL||Atlantic Coast|
|2||Michigan St||Big Ten|
|3||West Virginia||Big 12|
|5||Seton Hall||Big East|
|6||Iowa St||Big 12|
|7||St Joseph’s PA||Atlantic 10|
|8||Notre Dame||Atlantic Coast|
|9||Wichita St||Missouri Valley|
|10||VA Commonwealth||Atlantic 10|
|10||San Diego St||Mountain West|
|11||St Bonaventure||Atlantic 10|
|11||G Washington||Atlantic 10|
|11||Georgia Tech||Atlantic Coast|
|12||Northern Iowa||Missouri Valley|
|12||S Dakota St||Summit|
|13||Ark Little Rock||Sun Belt|
|14||WI Green Bay||Horizon|
|14||New Mexico St||WAC|
|15||Stony Brook||America East|
|15||Weber St||Big Sky|
|15||UNC Asheville||Big South|
|16||FL Gulf Coast||Atlantic Sun|
|16||Austin Peay||Ohio Valley|
|Last Four In|
|St Bonaventure||Atlantic 10|
|G Washington||Atlantic 10|
|Georgia Tech||Atlantic Coast|
|First Four Out|
|Texas Tech||Big 12|
|Ohio St||Big Ten|
|Next Four Out|
|Florida St||Atlantic Coast|