College Basketball Bracket 3/12/16

Bracket for games through 3/11/16; bracket seeding for use in the Bracket Matrix.

It looks a little bit weird today because some teams that are unlikely to win their conference are coming off of big wins yesterday and their rating is slightly inflated since they haven’t lost yet. My data does not project forward at all; it gives results as if there are no more games remaining so teams like Georgia and Michigan appear a bit higher than their rating will reflect tomorrow if they don’t keep winning.

I’m going to have two more updates before the selection show: one Sunday morning and one right after the last game finishes on Sunday.

Once again I’ll give an overview of the race for the top seeds as well as the bubble watch.

Oklahoma, Miami FL,  and Xavier fell out of contention for a 1 seed. Kansas might already have theirs locked up, so long as they don’t lose big to West Virginia. The ACC champion will definitely earn a 1 seed. If Villanova wins today they’ll get a top seed. The 4th spot will either go to Michigan St if they win the Big Ten, or the PAC12 champion.

Bubble watch

American: UConn and Temple are still in the running for at-large bids if they don’t earn an autobid. Cincinnati is most likely out, though they could sneak into the First Four.

A10: St Bonaventure and George Washington didn’t do themselves any favors yesterday; both are barely clinging to bids today. VCU, St Joseph’s and Dayton are all safe.

ACC: Georgia Tech is the last team in for now. They’ll probably drop out before the selection show.

Big East: No teams on the bubble. Butler is safely in.

Big Ten: Michigan got a huge win yesterday over Big Ten champion Indiana, and have secured themselves a bid. A bad loss today could see them drop to the First Four, but their name will be called on Sunday.

Big12: Texas Tech is the first team out, though when it’s this close it could really go either way. I’d expect them to be in the field on Sunday, even if my data says otherwise.

PAC12: USC is in a similar situation to Texas Tech, except without as many strong wins on their resume. If only one of these teams gets in, it’ll be Texas Tech over USC.

SEC: I’m still not confident that I’ll get this conference pegged down before the selection show. Georgia looks wildly overseeded at the moment, but if they keep winning they’ll earn themselves a bid. Florida is barely in, and could very likely fall out today or tomorrow. Despite the loss, South Carolina is safely in. Vanderbilt should still make the field as well, though may end up in the First Four.

St Mary’s is getting closer to an at-large bid, though they still need quite a bit to happen over the next two days to move up enough. The Missouri Valley will get two bids, but no other lower-tier conference has a team in the running for an at-large selection.

Seed Team Conference
1 Kansas Big 12
1 Villanova Big East
1 Virginia Atlantic Coast
1 North Carolina Atlantic Coast
2 Xavier Big East
2 Oregon Pacific-12
2 Miami FL Atlantic Coast
2 Michigan St Big Ten
3 Oklahoma Big 12
3 Utah Pacific-12
3 West Virginia Big 12
3 Kentucky Southeastern
4 Texas A&M Southeastern
4 Purdue Big Ten
4 Indiana Big Ten
4 Arizona Pacific-12
5 Duke Atlantic Coast
5 Seton Hall Big East
5 Maryland Big Ten
5 Dayton Atlantic 10
6 California Pacific-12
6 Iowa Big Ten
6 Texas Big 12
6 Iowa St Big 12
7 South Carolina Southeastern
7 St Joseph’s PA Atlantic 10
7 Wisconsin Big Ten
7 Providence Big East
8 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast
8 Baylor Big 12
8 Butler Big East
8 Colorado Pacific-12
9 Wichita St Missouri Valley
9 Michigan Big Ten
9 Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast
9 Georgia Southeastern
10 VA Commonwealth Atlantic 10
10 San Diego St Mountain West
10 Connecticut American
10 Oregon St Pacific-12
11 Vanderbilt Southeastern
11 St Bonaventure Atlantic 10
11 G Washington Atlantic 10
11 Florida Southeastern
11 Georgia Tech Atlantic Coast
12 Gonzaga West Coast
12 Akron Mid-American
12 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
12 S Dakota St Summit
12 Hawaii Big West
13 Chattanooga Southern
13 Ark Little Rock Sun Belt
13 UNC Wilmington Colonial
13 Yale Ivy
14 WI Green Bay Horizon
14 SF Austin Southland
14 MTSU Conference USA
14 New Mexico St WAC
15 Stony Brook America East
15 Weber St Big Sky
15 Iona MAAC
15 UNC Asheville Big South
16 Hampton MEAC
16 FL Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun
16 TX Southern SWAC
16 Austin Peay Ohio Valley
16 F Dickinson Northeast
16 Holy Cross Patriot
Last Four In
St Bonaventure Atlantic 10
G Washington Atlantic 10
Florida Southeastern
Georgia Tech Atlantic Coast
First Four Out
Texas Tech Big 12
USC Pacific-12
Cincinnati American
Ohio St Big Ten
Next Four Out
Florida St Atlantic Coast
Syracuse Atlantic Coast
Temple American
Alabama Southeastern

 

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