Bracket for games through 3/10/16; bracket seeding for use in the Bracket Matrix.
Some shifting in seeds is due to an imbalance in scheduling i.e. a team that won moved up and a team that didn’t play moved down. This will correct itself over the next 3 days.
The battle for 1 seeds is unchanged; still looks like Big 12, ACC, Big East, and Michigan St or a 2nd bid to one of the first three or an outside chance for the PAC12.
The bubble is changing daily. I’ll try to address all relevant situations.
American: The UConn/Cincinnati game this afternoon is a de facto play-in game; the loser is very likely to be left out of the field. Right now I only have 1 team in from the AAC, but it’ll likely end up with two bids as Temple, Tulsa, and Houston are all still playing and barely below the Next Four Out.
A10: St Bonaventure, George Washington and VCU are all in must-win games today to lock up their bids. Dayton and St Joe’s should be safely in regardless of today’s outcomes.
ACC: Georgia Tech is barely clinging to a bid today, but will likely be passed over by Sunday. All other teams who are in will stay in, and teams who are out will stay out.
Big East: No teams on the bubble. Butler might be close, but should still avoid the First Four.
Big Ten: Michigan is the last team in for the moment, but will absolutely need a win today to stay in. Ohio St can play their way in, but may need to reach the finals to secure an at-large bid. Wisconsin’s loss to Nebraska dropped them a bit, but they’re safely in the field.
Big12: Texas Tech might just hang on to their spot, though they really need all of the favorites to keep winning this weekend to stay in the field.
PAC12: I have USC barely out, and with no games left to move up they must rely on others falling behind them. My data seems to be a pessimistic outlier on the Trojans, but looking at their resume it’s hard to justify that they definitely should be in.
SEC: This is a tough conference to figure out. I think Vanderbilt and South Carolina are safely in. Florida really needs to win today to feel safe. Georgia and Alabama are close, but each probably needs to get to the finals to earn an at-large bid, and even then it’s not a certainty. LSU needs the autobid to get in.
|2||Miami FL||Atlantic Coast|
|2||North Carolina||Atlantic Coast|
|3||Michigan St||Big Ten|
|3||West Virginia||Big 12|
|6||Iowa St||Big 12|
|6||Seton Hall||Big East|
|7||Notre Dame||Atlantic Coast|
|8||St Joseph’s PA||Atlantic 10|
|8||Wichita St||Missouri Valley|
|9||St Bonaventure||Atlantic 10|
|10||G Washington||Atlantic 10|
|10||San Diego St||Mountain West|
|11||VA Commonwealth||Atlantic 10|
|11||Georgia Tech||Atlantic Coast|
|11||Texas Tech||Big 12|
|12||Northern Iowa||Missouri Valley|
|12||S Dakota St||Summit|
|13||Ark Little Rock||Sun Belt|
|14||WI Green Bay||Horizon|
|14||New Mexico St||WAC|
|15||Stony Brook||America East|
|15||Weber St||Big Sky|
|15||UNC Asheville||Big South|
|16||FL Gulf Coast||Atlantic Sun|
|16||Austin Peay||Ohio Valley|
|Last Four In|
|VA Commonwealth||Atlantic 10|
|Georgia Tech||Atlantic Coast|
|Texas Tech||Big 12|
|First Four Out|
|Ohio St||Big Ten|
|Next Four Out|
|St Mary’s CA||West Coast|
|Florida St||Atlantic Coast|