|6||Ohio State||0||Ohio State|
|10||North Carolina||0||North Carolina|
|11||Texas Christian||-2||Florida State|
|21||Louisiana State||0||Louisiana State|
The discrepancies between my formula and the committee are dwindling as more data becomes available, except when it comes to the Group of 5 teams. The committee seems to be going out of their way to throw these teams a bone, though I’m not sure why. Houston will likely be their representative, so long as they can get past Temple at home this week.
The playoff picture was made a lot clearer with the losses of Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State.
Paths of Least Resistance
Clemson: Win the ACC CG and they’re in the playoff. Lose close, and they’d need some help but may still be able to sneak in at the 4 spot.
Alabama: Win the SEC CG, otherwise they’re out.
Oklahoma: This is the only team that is definitely in the playoff. Regular season is over.
Iowa: Win Big Ten CG and they’re in, lose and they’re out.
Michigan St: Notre Dame’s lost cleared the path for Michigan State to win the Big Ten and get in.
Ohio St: Needs one of Alabama or Clemson to lose. An Alabama loss would almost certainly put them in (barring a Stanford blowout win this week), a Clemson loss would be a toss-up.
Stanford: Win the PAC12 CG by a wide margin AND at least one of Clemson and Alabama lose. Running up the score is in the Cardinal’s best interest this week.
Notre Dame: Out.
Florida State: Out.
North Carolina: Needs to beat Clemson by a lot, and maybe the committee will look past those two FCS teams on the schedule. Everyone who enjoys good non-conference games should not want UNC to get into the playoff; it sets a terrible precedent for scheduling going forward.