CFP vs BoW Poll 12/1/2015

12/1/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -2 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Oklahoma
3 Oklahoma 1 Clemson
4 Iowa -3 Michigan State
5 Michigan State 1 Stanford
6 Ohio State 0 Ohio State
7 Stanford 2 Iowa
8 Notre Dame -6 Northwestern
9 Florida State -2 Oregon
10 North Carolina 0 North Carolina
11 Texas Christian -2 Florida State
12 Baylor -5 Mississippi
13 Mississippi 1 Texas Christian
14 Northwestern 6 Notre Dame
15 Michigan -4 Oklahoma State
16 Oregon 7 Southern California
17 Oklahoma State 2 Baylor
18 Florida 0 Florida
19 Houston -6 Michigan
20 Southern California 4 Utah
21 Louisiana State 0 Louisiana State
22 Temple -18 Miami (FL)
23 Navy -10 UCLA
24 Utah 4 Arkansas
25 Tennessee -2 Houston

The discrepancies between my formula and the committee are dwindling as more data becomes available, except when it comes to the Group of 5 teams. The committee seems to be going out of their way to throw these teams a bone, though I’m not sure why. Houston will likely be their representative, so long as they can get past Temple at home this week.

The playoff picture was made a lot clearer with the losses of Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State.

Paths of Least Resistance

Clemson: Win the ACC CG and they’re in the playoff. Lose close, and they’d need some help but may still be able to sneak in at the 4 spot.

Alabama: Win the SEC CG, otherwise they’re out.

Oklahoma: This is the only team that is definitely in the playoff. Regular season is over.

Iowa: Win Big Ten CG and they’re in, lose and they’re out.

Michigan St: Notre Dame’s lost cleared the path for Michigan State to win the Big Ten and get in.

Ohio St: Needs one of Alabama or Clemson to lose. An Alabama loss would almost certainly put them in (barring a Stanford blowout win this week), a Clemson loss would be a toss-up.

Stanford: Win the PAC12 CG by a wide margin AND at least one of Clemson and Alabama lose. Running up the score is in the Cardinal’s best interest this week.

Notre Dame: Out.

Florida State: Out.

North Carolina: Needs to beat Clemson by a lot, and maybe the committee will look past those two FCS teams on the schedule. Everyone who enjoys good non-conference games should not want UNC to get into the playoff; it sets a terrible precedent for scheduling going forward.

 

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