College Basketball Rankings & Bracket 12/19/15

Bracket and Full 351 Team Rankings for games through 12/18/15. Full rankings for use in the composite Massey Ratings, and bracket seeding for use in the Bracket Matrix.

Seed Team Conference
1 Xavier Big East
1 Villanova Big East
1 Michigan St Big Ten
1 Oklahoma Big 12
2 Purdue Big Ten
2 Iowa St Big 12
2 North Carolina Atlantic Coast
2 Duke Atlantic Coast
3 Kentucky Southeastern
3 G Washington Atlantic 10
3 Miami FL Atlantic Coast
3 Iowa Big Ten
4 Arizona Pacific-12
4 South Carolina Southeastern
4 Dayton Atlantic 10
4 Kansas Big 12
5 Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast
5 West Virginia Big 12
5 Texas Big 12
5 Maryland Big Ten
6 Virginia Atlantic Coast
6 Vanderbilt Southeastern
6 Louisville Atlantic Coast
6 Texas A&M Southeastern
7 Butler Big East
7 Colorado Pacific-12
7 USC Pacific-12
7 Ark Little Rock Sun Belt
8 Providence Big East
8 Arizona St Pacific-12
8 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast
8 Texas Tech Big 12
9 Oregon Pacific-12
9 St Mary’s CA West Coast
9 UCLA Pacific-12
9 Monmouth NJ MAAC
10 Cincinnati American
10 UT Arlington Sun Belt
10 Indiana Big Ten
10 Alabama Southeastern
11 Michigan Big Ten
11 Marquette Big East
11 Utah Pacific-12
11 Washington Pacific-12
11 Florida Southeastern
12 Richmond Atlantic 10
12 Northwestern Big Ten
12 New Mexico Mountain West
12 Valparaiso Horizon
12 S Dakota St Summit
13 MTSU Conference USA
13 Hawaii Big West
13 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley
13 Chattanooga Southern
14 Col Charleston Colonial
14 Kent Mid-American
14 Army Patriot
14 Belmont Ohio Valley
15 High Point Big South
15 TAM C. Christi Southland
15 Princeton Ivy
15 North Florida Atlantic Sun
16 Albany NY America East
16 CS Sacramento Big Sky
16 Missouri KC WAC
16 Southern Univ SWAC
16 Wagner Northeast
16 Howard MEAC
Last Four In
Washington
Florida
Richmond
Northwestern
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College Basketball Rankings & Bracket 12/14/15

Bracket and Full 351 Team Rankings for games through 12/13/15. Full rankings for use in the composite Massey Ratings, and bracket seeding for use in the Bracket Matrix.

Seed Team Conference
1 Xavier Big East
1 Michigan St Big Ten
1 Oklahoma Big 12
1 Villanova Big East
2 Iowa St Big 12
2 Duke Atlantic Coast
2 North Carolina Atlantic Coast
2 Purdue Big Ten
3 Miami FL Atlantic Coast
3 G Washington Atlantic 10
3 Kentucky Southeastern
3 Iowa Big Ten
4 Arizona Pacific-12
4 Kansas Big 12
4 Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast
4 Vanderbilt Southeastern
5 Texas Big 12
5 Dayton Atlantic 10
5 West Virginia Big 12
5 Ark Little Rock Sun Belt
6 South Carolina Southeastern
6 Texas A&M Southeastern
6 Virginia Atlantic Coast
6 Maryland Big Ten
7 Louisville Atlantic Coast
7 Colorado Pacific-12
7 Providence Big East
7 Butler Big East
8 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast
8 Indiana Big Ten
8 UCLA Pacific-12
8 Arizona St Pacific-12
9 UT Arlington Sun Belt
9 USC Pacific-12
9 Oregon Pacific-12
9 Cincinnati American
10 Marquette Big East
10 Florida Southeastern
10 Northwestern Big Ten
10 Baylor Big 12
11 New Mexico Mountain West
11 Davidson Atlantic 10
11 Washington Pacific-12
11 UNLV Mountain West
11 Alabama Southeastern
12 Michigan Big Ten
12 Valparaiso Horizon
12 St Mary’s CA West Coast
12 S Dakota St Summit
12 Louisiana Tech Conference USA
13 Hawaii Big West
13 Monmouth NJ MAAC
13 Col Charleston Colonial
13 Mercer Southern
14 Evansville Missouri Valley
14 Belmont Ohio Valley
14 Army Patriot
14 High Point Big South
15 TAM C. Christi Southland
15 Kent Mid-American
15 Southern Univ SWAC
15 Princeton Ivy
16 CS Sacramento Big Sky
16 CS Bakersfield WAC
16 Albany NY America East
16 FL Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun
16 Wagner Northeast
16 Hampton MEAC

CFP vs BoW 2015 Final Poll

12/6/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -2 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Oklahoma
3 Michigan State -1 Clemson
4 Oklahoma 2 Michigan State
5 Iowa -2 Stanford
6 Stanford 1 Ohio State
7 Ohio State 1 Iowa
8 Notre Dame -5 Oregon
9 Florida State -3 Northwestern
10 North Carolina -4 Texas Christian
11 Texas Christian 1 Mississippi
12 Mississippi 1 Florida State
13 Northwestern 4 Notre Dame
14 Michigan -2 North Carolina
15 Oregon 7 Oklahoma State
16 Oklahoma State 1 Michigan
17 Baylor -4 Southern California
18 Houston -6 Utah
19 Florida 0 Florida
20 Louisiana State 0 Louisiana State
21 Navy -14 Baylor
22 Utah 4 Miami (FL)
23 Tennessee -5 UCLA
24 Temple -17 Houston
25 Southern California 8 Arkansas

My top 14 isn’t all that different from the committee, but is starts to vary wildly in the bottom half of the poll. This might be my last college football post for the year; I may have a bowl preview but haven’t decided on a format yet.

I will be posting college basketball full rankings (351 teams) as well as my submission for the Bracket Matrix starting in the next few weeks. The data looks a bit noisy early on, so once it starts taking shape (about 10 or so games into the season) I’ll feel comfortable posting results.

BoW 2015 College Football Ranking Index Week 14

Full 128 FBS Rankings Week 14

Final regular season top 25:

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Oklahoma XII
3 Clemson ACC
4 Michigan State B1G
5 Stanford PAC12
6 Ohio State B1G
7 Iowa B1G
8 Oregon PAC12
9 Northwestern B1G
10 Texas Christian XII
11 Mississippi SEC
12 Florida State ACC
13 Notre Dame Ind
14 North Carolina ACC
15 Oklahoma State XII
16 Michigan B1G
17 Southern California PAC12
18 Utah PAC12
19 Florida SEC
20 Louisiana State SEC
21 Baylor XII
22 Miami (FL) ACC
23 UCLA PAC12
24 Houston Amer
25 Arkansas SEC

I feel confident that my formula picked the CFP participants correctly, but the order by the committee will likely be different. Alabama maybe gets the top spot after Clemson struggled with UNC, but doubtful Clemson would drop two spots.

Other New Year’s Six participants would be the rest of the top 11 and Houston. My formula would have the following match-ups:

CFP Orange: Alabama vs Michigan St

CFP Cotton: Oklahoma vs Clemson

Rose: Stanford vs Ohio St

Fiesta: Iowa vs Houston

Sugar: Oregon vs Ole Miss

Peach: TCU vs Northwestern

I doubt any of these match-ups are picked, but would make for some great games.

CFP vs BoW Poll 12/1/2015

12/1/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -2 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Oklahoma
3 Oklahoma 1 Clemson
4 Iowa -3 Michigan State
5 Michigan State 1 Stanford
6 Ohio State 0 Ohio State
7 Stanford 2 Iowa
8 Notre Dame -6 Northwestern
9 Florida State -2 Oregon
10 North Carolina 0 North Carolina
11 Texas Christian -2 Florida State
12 Baylor -5 Mississippi
13 Mississippi 1 Texas Christian
14 Northwestern 6 Notre Dame
15 Michigan -4 Oklahoma State
16 Oregon 7 Southern California
17 Oklahoma State 2 Baylor
18 Florida 0 Florida
19 Houston -6 Michigan
20 Southern California 4 Utah
21 Louisiana State 0 Louisiana State
22 Temple -18 Miami (FL)
23 Navy -10 UCLA
24 Utah 4 Arkansas
25 Tennessee -2 Houston

The discrepancies between my formula and the committee are dwindling as more data becomes available, except when it comes to the Group of 5 teams. The committee seems to be going out of their way to throw these teams a bone, though I’m not sure why. Houston will likely be their representative, so long as they can get past Temple at home this week.

The playoff picture was made a lot clearer with the losses of Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State.

Paths of Least Resistance

Clemson: Win the ACC CG and they’re in the playoff. Lose close, and they’d need some help but may still be able to sneak in at the 4 spot.

Alabama: Win the SEC CG, otherwise they’re out.

Oklahoma: This is the only team that is definitely in the playoff. Regular season is over.

Iowa: Win Big Ten CG and they’re in, lose and they’re out.

Michigan St: Notre Dame’s lost cleared the path for Michigan State to win the Big Ten and get in.

Ohio St: Needs one of Alabama or Clemson to lose. An Alabama loss would almost certainly put them in (barring a Stanford blowout win this week), a Clemson loss would be a toss-up.

Stanford: Win the PAC12 CG by a wide margin AND at least one of Clemson and Alabama lose. Running up the score is in the Cardinal’s best interest this week.

Notre Dame: Out.

Florida State: Out.

North Carolina: Needs to beat Clemson by a lot, and maybe the committee will look past those two FCS teams on the schedule. Everyone who enjoys good non-conference games should not want UNC to get into the playoff; it sets a terrible precedent for scheduling going forward.