2015 BoW vs CFP Rankings Week 12, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names.
Baylor, Florida St, Navy, and Temple(?) are all overvalued by the committee. Florida St and Baylor can validate their rankings with wins over ranked opponents this week. Oregon is playing much better than their ranking, as is North Carolina (watch out, Clemson).
Paths of Least Resistance
Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.
Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.
Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.
Oklahoma: Beat Oklahoma St, and may still need help from Stanford beating Notre Dame or Big Ten chaos.
Iowa: Win out, probably can’t lose to Nebraska this week.
Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame. Small chance they could be selected over 1 loss Big XII (probably not Oklahoma), and a 1-loss Notre Dame probably jumps them.
Notre Dame: Beat Stanford and they’ll probably be in, but an Oklahoma loss would help.
Baylor: Win out, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St, AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.
Ohio St: Win out, Michigan St needs to lose to Penn St AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor.
Stanford: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Oklahoma, Baylor.
Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose AND 3 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St AND Stanford can’t win the PAC12.
Oklahoma St: Beat Oklahoma, need Stanford to beat Notre Dame then lose PAC12 CG, and need Baylor to lose a game.
Florida: Beating Florida St and Alabama might be enough to get back in, but still would need an exceptional amount of outside help.
All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.
If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, only the Oklahoma/Oklahoma St winner would have fewer than two losses. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.
|Week 13||Baylor loses at TCU||Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St|
|Week 13||Clemson loses at South Carolina||UNC loses at NC St||Notre Dame loses at Stanford|
|Week 14||Clemson loses ACC CG|
|Week 13||Ohio St loses at Michigan||Iowa loses at Nebraska||Michigan St loses to Penn St|
|Week 14||Iowa loses Big Ten CG|
|Entire conference has 2+ losses each|
|Week 13||Florida loses to Florida St||Alabama loses at Auburn|
|Week 14||If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG|
Important games in Week 13:
Iowa at Nebraska
Baylor at TCU
Ohio St at Michigan
Clemson at South Carolina
Penn St at Michigan St
Alabama at Auburn
North Carolina at NC State
Florida St at Florida
Notre Dame at Stanford
Oklahoma at Oklahoma St
Teams in bold still have playoff dreams, and a loss this late almost certainly knocks them out (Clemson being the lone possible exception).
Ticket watch will be a little earlier this week; tonight or tomorrow morning.