CFP vs BoW Poll 11/17/2015

CFP and BoW rankings, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names:

11/17/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -1 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Clemson
3 Ohio State -5 Oklahoma
4 Notre Dame -2 Iowa
5 Iowa 1 Oklahoma State
6 Oklahoma State 1 Notre Dame
7 Oklahoma 4 Stanford
8 Florida -1 Ohio State
9 Michigan State -1 Florida
10 Baylor -14 Michigan State
11 Stanford 4 Utah
12 Michigan -5 North Carolina
13 Utah 2 Southern California
14 Florida State -6 Northwestern
15 Louisiana State -4 Oregon
16 Navy -9 Texas Christian
17 North Carolina 5 Michigan
18 Texas Christian 2 Houston
19 Houston 1 Louisiana State
20 Northwestern 6 Florida State
21 Memphis -6 Arkansas
22 Mississippi 0 Mississippi
23 Oregon 8 Washington State
24 Southern California 11 Baylor
25 Wisconsin -1 Navy

My formula likes both USC and Oregon more than the committee does, and continues to look down upon Baylor. It sees Oklahoma as the class of the Big XII.

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.

Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.

Ohio St: Win out, including Big Ten CG. Can they lose? Probably not. November losses have shown to be judged harshly by the committee.

Notre Dame: The Big 12 champ needs to lose a game. Oklahoma St would jump them if they win out.

Iowa: Win out, would replace Ohio State.

Oklahoma St: Win out, would replace Notre Dame.

Oklahoma: Need two of top 5 to lose.

Florida: Win out, would replace Alabama.

Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Baylor: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Stanford: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, PAC 12 champ (can’t be Utah).

Utah: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

Florida St

LSU

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Houston

Northwestern

Memphis

Mississippi

Oregon

Southern California

Wisconsin

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, there would be zero Power 5 teams with fewer than 2 losses. Some hypothetical game results may seem unlikely, but none would be close to the biggest upset of the season. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII
Week 12 Oklahoma St loses to Baylor Oklahoma loses to TCU
Week 13 TCU loses to Baylor Oklahoma St loses to Oklahoma
Week 14  Baylor loses to Texas
ACC/Independent
Week 13 Clemson loses at South Carolina UNC loses at NC St Notre Dame loses at Stanford
Week 14 Clemson loses ACC CG
Big Ten
Week 12 Ohio St loses to Michigan St
Week 13 Ohio St loses at Michigan Iowa loses at Nebraska  Michigan St loses to Penn St
Week 14 Iowa loses Big Ten CG
PAC12
Entire conference has 2+ losses each
SEC
Week 13 Florida loses to Florida St  Alabama loses at Auburn
Week 14 If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important games in Week 12:

Michigan St at Ohio St

Baylor at Oklahoma St

TCU at Oklahoma

The winner of Michigan St/Ohio St maintains control of their own destiny. The Big 12 will remove at least 1 contender in the TCU/Oklahoma game, and Oklahoma St can end Baylor’s playoff dreams.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s