BoW 2015 College Football Ranking Index Week 13

Rankings updated thru Week 13 (11/28/2015): (Full 128 FBS Rankings Week 13)

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Oklahoma XII
3 Clemson ACC
4 Michigan State B1G
5 Stanford PAC12
6 Ohio State B1G
7 Iowa B1G
8 Northwestern B1G
9 Oregon PAC12
10 North Carolina ACC
11 Florida State ACC
12 Mississippi SEC
13 Texas Christian XII
14 Notre Dame Ind
15 Oklahoma State XII
16 Southern California PAC12
17 Baylor XII
18 Florida SEC
19 Michigan B1G
20 Utah PAC12
21 Louisiana State SEC
22 Miami (FL) ACC
23 UCLA PAC12
24 Arkansas SEC
25 Houston Amer

 

Highlights from Week 13: Despite no changes in my top 5, the playoff picture became much clearer. Upsets in the ACC or SEC championship games this week could untidy the bracket, but for now it is simple: Oklahoma is in, Alabama and Clemson win and they’re in, and the Big Ten champion is in.

ACC: Clemson hangs on to beat in-state rival South Carolina and will retain their playoff seeding with a win over North Carolina this week.

B1G: Ohio State finally woke up after sleepwalking through their regular season to earn their first win over a ranked opponent. Too little, too late, as Iowa will face Michigan State in Indianapolis this week for a spot in the CFP.

Big XII: Oklahoma makes a statement that they belong in the CFP after blasting Oklahoma State on the road.

PAC12: Stanford ended Notre Dame’s playoff hopes on a last second field goal and now get a rematch with USC to keep their ultra-slim playoff hopes alive. The Cardinal won the first round with the Trojans back in September.

SEC: Florida gets clobbered at home, but can still play spoiler to Alabama this week in Atlanta.

Prediction for CFP top 4: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa. Stanford should move up to the top 7, along with Michigan State and Ohio State. The committee would have a tough decision to make if one of Alabama/Clemson lose; setting up well for the Big Ten to get two bids. A Stanford win would make for a tough decision between the 1-loss Buckeyes and 2-loss PAC12 champ.

Ticket watch Week 13

Week Home Rank Home team Opp Opp Rank Entry price Notes
13 12 Florida Florida St 13 207
13 Auburn Alabama 2 161
13 11 Oklahoma St Oklahoma 3 154
13 10 Michigan Ohio St 8 148
13 Nebraska Iowa 4 142 Friday game
13 Southern Cal UCLA 22 139
13 Washington Washington St 20 119 Friday game
13 21 Mississippi St Ole Miss 18 113
13 NC State North Carolina 14 101
13 South Carolina Clemson 1 78
13 9 Stanford Notre Dame 6 72
13 19 TCU Baylor 7 49 Friday game
13 17 Oregon Oregon St 44 Friday game
13 16 Northwestern Illinois 39 at Soldier Field
13 23 Utah Colorado 34
13 24 Toledo Western Michigan 22 Friday game
13 25 Temple UConn 17
13 Houston Navy 15 9 Friday game
13 5 Michigan St Penn St 0

MSU Ticket PricesMichigan State! What is going on here?? This is a game where they can clinch the division, and students are giving away tickets on StubHub. Meanwhile, their athletic department is getting desperate too:MSU ticket promo

This can be looked at in a couple ways. First, if you’re a Michigan State fan, this is an absolute steal of a price to go see your playoff-contending team in their home finale. On the other hand, why in the world is Michigan State struggling to fill their stadium when the team is ranked #5 and coming off an enormous win? This is not a new phenomenon, as just two weeks ago Michigan State struggled to sell tickets for the Maryland game. I do have a hypothesis, and would love to be proven wrong because it is just a sad indictment of their inferiority complex and/or obsession with the University of Michigan: Michigan State fans do not want to attend their team’s home games because doing so would prevent them from watching Michigan play.

I say this because I know a lot of Spartan fans that love watching their team play. However, a startling number of them rarely attend games (the exception being when they play Michigan), but love watching them on TV. It’s not for a lack of interest in their team, or not wanting to be outside in the cold (they LOVE tailgating). Their game this week is far from the least appealing match-up on this list. It is indisputably more appealing than Toledo/Western Michigan, Temple/UConn, and Utah/Colorado. And while it is an artificial rivalry, it is still a more appealing match-up on the field than Northwestern/Illinois, Oregon/Oregon St, North Carolina/NC State, or Clemson/South Carolina, all of which are commanding more than the MSU ticket office promotion. In a vacuum their lack of attendance doesn’t seem too bad, but placed side by side with other ranked teams it is pretty damning.

Anyway, great value in the Stanford/Notre Dame and TCU/Baylor games this week. The top ten most expensive are all rivalry games, with ranking seeming to correlate well to price.

 

CFP vs BoW Poll 11/24/2015

2015 BoW vs CFP Rankings Week 12, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names.

Baylor, Florida St, Navy, and Temple(?) are all overvalued by the committee. Florida St and Baylor can validate their rankings with wins over ranked opponents this week. Oregon is playing much better than their ranking, as is North Carolina (watch out, Clemson).

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.

Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.

Oklahoma: Beat Oklahoma St, and may still need help from Stanford beating Notre Dame or Big Ten chaos.

Iowa: Win out, probably can’t lose to Nebraska this week.

Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame. Small chance they could be selected over 1 loss Big XII (probably not Oklahoma), and a 1-loss Notre Dame probably jumps them.

Notre Dame: Beat Stanford and they’ll probably be in, but an Oklahoma loss would help.

Baylor: Win out, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St, AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Ohio St: Win out, Michigan St needs to lose to Penn St AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor.

Stanford: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Oklahoma, Baylor.

Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose AND 3 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St AND Stanford can’t win the PAC12.

Oklahoma St: Beat Oklahoma, need Stanford to beat Notre Dame then lose PAC12 CG, and need Baylor to lose a game.

Florida: Beating Florida St and Alabama might be enough to get back in, but still would need an exceptional amount of outside help.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

Florida St

North Carolina

Navy

Northwestern

Oregon

Mississippi

TCU

Washington St

Mississippi State

UCLA

Utah

Toledo

Temple

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, only the Oklahoma/Oklahoma St winner would have fewer than two losses. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII
Week 13 Baylor loses at TCU Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St
ACC/Independent
Week 13 Clemson loses at South Carolina UNC loses at NC St Notre Dame loses at Stanford
Week 14 Clemson loses ACC CG
Big Ten
Week 13 Ohio St loses at Michigan Iowa loses at Nebraska  Michigan St loses to Penn St
Week 14 Iowa loses Big Ten CG
PAC12
Entire conference has 2+ losses each
SEC
Week 13 Florida loses to Florida St  Alabama loses at Auburn
Week 14 If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important games in Week 13:

Iowa at Nebraska

Baylor at TCU

Ohio St at Michigan

Clemson at South Carolina

Penn St at Michigan St

Alabama at Auburn

North Carolina at NC State

Florida St at Florida

Notre Dame at Stanford

Oklahoma at Oklahoma St

Teams in bold still have playoff dreams, and a loss this late almost certainly knocks them out (Clemson being the lone possible exception).

Ticket watch will be a little earlier this week; tonight or tomorrow morning.

 

BoW 2015 College Football Ranking Index Week 12

Rankings updated thru Week 12 (11/21/2015): (Full 128 FBS Rankings)

*Note: WordPress discontinued their free table formatting, so now it looks like this. The linked spreadsheet is much easier to read.

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Oklahoma XII
3 Clemson ACC
4 Michigan State B1G
5 Stanford PAC12
6 Iowa B1G
7 Notre Dame Ind
8 Oregon PAC12
9 North Carolina ACC
10 Florida SEC
11 Northwestern B1G
12 Oklahoma State XII
13 Ohio State B1G
14 Michigan B1G
15 Baylor XII
16 Utah PAC12
17 Mississippi SEC
18 UCLA PAC12
19 Washington State PAC12
20 Southern California PAC12
21 Texas Christian XII
22 Mississippi State SEC
23 Florida State ACC
24 Pittsburgh ACC
25 Louisiana State SEC

Highlights from Week 12: Alabama remains atop the standings. Oklahoma and Clemson switch places. Michigan State jumps into the top 4.

ACC: North Carolina survives the Frank Beamer farewell. Boston College hangs with Notre Dame, costing the Irish some crucial style points late in the season.

B1G: Michigan State pulls off the win of the year (so far) at Ohio St, clearing their path to the playoff. Iowa remains unbeaten.

Big XII: Oklahoma State is unbeaten no more, as Baylor leaves Stillwater with a 10 point victory. Oklahoma barely hangs on against TCU, and now seems to be the conference’s best bet at a playoff bid.

PAC12: Does anybody in the PAC12 South want to win the conference? Utah loses again and finds itself in a 3 way tie in the south division with USC and UCLA. Stanford clinches the North.

SEC: LSU is in free-fall, dropping their 3rd straight with all 3 by double digits. Florida avoids national embarrassment by hanging on in overtime against a horrible Florida Atlantic team.

Elsewhere: Houston finally loses, and not to who you’d expect. UConn becomes bowl eligible with the win over the Cougars, and the Group of 5 is officially out of the running for a playoff berth.

Prediction for CFP top 4: Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, and…Iowa? Michigan State? Oklahoma? My formula says it’ll be Oklahoma, but Iowa wasn’t really unimpressive enough to get jumped by a team with a worse record. I’ll post the comparison of polls, scenarios going forward, and a week 13 preview next time.

Ticket watch Week 12

Ticket prices for games with ranked teams. The drop in price for Iowa’s game from last week is surprising. There’s great value in games with two top 25 teams in games at Wisconsin and Oklahoma St. Notre Dame tickets are again among the most expensive, though the venue (Fenway Park) likely plays a role. Michigan St goes from least expensive ticket at home last week to most expensive on the road this week. They may return to the bottom again next week, but could avoid it with a win in Columbus.

CFP vs BoW Poll 11/17/2015

CFP and BoW rankings, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names:

11/17/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -1 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Clemson
3 Ohio State -5 Oklahoma
4 Notre Dame -2 Iowa
5 Iowa 1 Oklahoma State
6 Oklahoma State 1 Notre Dame
7 Oklahoma 4 Stanford
8 Florida -1 Ohio State
9 Michigan State -1 Florida
10 Baylor -14 Michigan State
11 Stanford 4 Utah
12 Michigan -5 North Carolina
13 Utah 2 Southern California
14 Florida State -6 Northwestern
15 Louisiana State -4 Oregon
16 Navy -9 Texas Christian
17 North Carolina 5 Michigan
18 Texas Christian 2 Houston
19 Houston 1 Louisiana State
20 Northwestern 6 Florida State
21 Memphis -6 Arkansas
22 Mississippi 0 Mississippi
23 Oregon 8 Washington State
24 Southern California 11 Baylor
25 Wisconsin -1 Navy

My formula likes both USC and Oregon more than the committee does, and continues to look down upon Baylor. It sees Oklahoma as the class of the Big XII.

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.

Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.

Ohio St: Win out, including Big Ten CG. Can they lose? Probably not. November losses have shown to be judged harshly by the committee.

Notre Dame: The Big 12 champ needs to lose a game. Oklahoma St would jump them if they win out.

Iowa: Win out, would replace Ohio State.

Oklahoma St: Win out, would replace Notre Dame.

Oklahoma: Need two of top 5 to lose.

Florida: Win out, would replace Alabama.

Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Baylor: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Stanford: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, PAC 12 champ (can’t be Utah).

Utah: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

Florida St

LSU

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Houston

Northwestern

Memphis

Mississippi

Oregon

Southern California

Wisconsin

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, there would be zero Power 5 teams with fewer than 2 losses. Some hypothetical game results may seem unlikely, but none would be close to the biggest upset of the season. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII
Week 12 Oklahoma St loses to Baylor Oklahoma loses to TCU
Week 13 TCU loses to Baylor Oklahoma St loses to Oklahoma
Week 14  Baylor loses to Texas
ACC/Independent
Week 13 Clemson loses at South Carolina UNC loses at NC St Notre Dame loses at Stanford
Week 14 Clemson loses ACC CG
Big Ten
Week 12 Ohio St loses to Michigan St
Week 13 Ohio St loses at Michigan Iowa loses at Nebraska  Michigan St loses to Penn St
Week 14 Iowa loses Big Ten CG
PAC12
Entire conference has 2+ losses each
SEC
Week 13 Florida loses to Florida St  Alabama loses at Auburn
Week 14 If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important games in Week 12:

Michigan St at Ohio St

Baylor at Oklahoma St

TCU at Oklahoma

The winner of Michigan St/Ohio St maintains control of their own destiny. The Big 12 will remove at least 1 contender in the TCU/Oklahoma game, and Oklahoma St can end Baylor’s playoff dreams.

BoW 2015 College Football Ranking Index Week 11

Rankings updated thru Week 11 (11/14/2015):

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Clemson ACC
3 Oklahoma XII
4 Iowa B1G
5 Oklahoma State XII
6 Notre Dame Ind
7 Stanford PAC12
8 Ohio State B1G
9 Florida SEC
10 Michigan State B1G
11 Utah PAC12
12 North Carolina ACC
13 Southern California PAC12
14 Northwestern B1G
15 Oregon PAC12
16 Texas Christian XII
17 Michigan B1G
18 Houston Amer
19 Louisiana State SEC
20 Florida State ACC
21 Arkansas SEC
22 Mississippi SEC
23 Washington State PAC12
24 Baylor XII
25 Navy Amer

Alabama and Clemson remain atop the standings. Oklahoma replaces Stanford. Iowa remain in the top 4.

Highlights from Week 11:

ACC: North Carolina blows out Miami, making a strong statement that they should be considered a contender. All ranked teams hold serve for the week.

B1G: Iowa narrowly escapes Minnesota at home; Michigan has an even narrower escape at Indiana. No upsets this week.

Big XII: Oklahoma pulls a huge win at Baylor, essentially knocking the Bears and their weak schedule out of playoff contention. Oklahoma St hangs on to win in Ames, TCU barely avoids an embarrassing loss to winless Kansas.

PAC12: Upsets galore! Oregon takes out Stanford on the road, Washington St beats UCLA at the Rose Bowl, and Arizona hangs on in double OT to beat Utah. The Pac12 is now on the outside looking in at the playoff.

SEC: Alabama crushes Mississippi St and establishes their dominance in the SEC West. LSU takes itself out of the running with a terrible home loss to Arkansas.

Elsewhere: Houston mounts a huge comeback to stay unbeaten. Temple is blown out at South Florida.

Prediction for CFP top 4: Unchanged; Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St, Notre Dame. Oklahoma should make a big jump. I’ll post a comparison of polls, updated playoff scenarios, and a Week 12 preview after the new rankings are released Tuesday.

Ticket prices for games with ranked teams, Week 11

For a long time I’ve wondered how ticket prices and a team’s ranking are correlated. The prices are no doubt impacted by quality of opponent, but is there a baseline entry price dependent on the ranking, regardless of opponent? I’ll chart this the rest of the season and have aggregate results, but for now let’s look at ticket prices for games involving top 25 teams. Note the entry price is the minimum price for tickets on Stubhub as of 8:30AM ET the day before the Week 11 games.

Week Home Rank Home team Opp Opp Rank Entry price
11 5 Iowa Minnesota 218
11 17 Mississippi St Alabama 2 205
11 6 Baylor Oklahoma 12 153
11 4 Notre Dame Wake Forest 107
11 South Carolina Florida 11 78
11 9 LSU Arkansas 57
11 7 Stanford Oregon 55
11 Illinois Ohio St 3 55
11 19 UCLA Washington St 49
11 20 Navy SMU 48
11 Indiana Michigan 14 44
11 Iowa St Oklahoma St 8 41
11 Syracuse Clemson 1 39
11 24 Houston Memphis 21 38
11 South Florida Temple 22 35
11 16 Florida St North Carolina St 31
11 23 North Carolina Miami 27
11 Arizona Utah 10 24
11 18 Northwestern Purdue 22
11 15 TCU Kansas 17
11 13 Michigan St Maryland 9

A few things caught my attention right away. Iowa fans are very excited about their team and this week’s night game. I would’ve guessed the Miss St/Alabama and Baylor/Oklahoma games would rank ahead of this one. Notre Dame home games are an expensive ticket and the opponent does not matter.

The most interesting observation, however, is Michigan St commanding just $9 the day before the game. Michigan St is one bad call away from being undefeated and likely a top 8ish team, yet it costs more to see any other game involving a ranked team, and in many cases it costs more to see two unranked teams play. Granted, Maryland isn’t very good, but $9 to see the 13th ranked team in the country play seems out of whack. High schools charge that much for football games. Perhaps Maryland is really bringing the price down, so let’s look at their home finale with a team on the fringe of the top 25, Penn St. As of this writing, those tickets start at just $10. Why does nobody care about going to see Michigan St play at home? It is a much tougher ticket to see the Spartans play on the road, as the tickets to see Michigan St play in Columbus are currently going for $135 and up, so it seems like a bargain to catch them at home twice for a fraction of the cost.

I’ll keep an eye on this the rest of the season as the market continues to change.

CFP vs BoW Poll 11/10/2015

CFP and BoW rankings, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names:

11/10/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -1 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Clemson
3 Ohio State -3 Stanford
4 Notre Dame -1 Iowa
5 Iowa 1 Notre Dame
6 Baylor -12 Ohio State
7 Stanford 4 Utah
8 Oklahoma State 0 Oklahoma State
9 Louisiana State 0 Louisiana State
10 Utah 3 Michigan State
11 Florida 0 Florida
12 Oklahoma 0 Oklahoma
13 Michigan State 3 Texas Christian
14 Michigan -1 Northwestern
15 Texas Christian 2 Michigan
16 Florida State -10 Southern California
17 Mississippi State -2 North Carolina
18 Northwestern 4 Baylor
19 UCLA -6 Mississippi State
20 Navy -1 Mississippi
21 Memphis -1 Navy
22 Temple -12 Memphis
23 North Carolina 6 Houston
24 Houston 1 Wisconsin
25 Wisconsin 1 UCLA

My formula likes both Stanford and Northwestern more than the committee does (Northwestern’s rank no doubt helped by Stanford’s high mark), and my formula does not take into account head to head results (hence Northwestern is ahead of Michigan, but the margin is extremely small). My formula can see right through the weak strength of schedules of Baylor, Florida State, and Temple, and gives respect to the Ole Miss and USC schedules, despite each having 3 losses. Nice to see North Carolina make an appearance this week, though they have a long way to go to reach the playoff, and even winning out (and beating #1 Clemson) may not be enough.

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but definitely not to Florida St since the loser of that game is likely out of the ACC CG. Clemson’s win over Florida State provided some breathing room so a loss wouldn’t be a certain death knell.

Alabama: Ole Miss needs to lose 1 more SEC game. Ole Miss lost, so it’s a clear path to the playoff if Alabama wins out. Still cannot afford a loss.

Ohio St: Win out, including Big Ten CG. Can they lose? Yes, but not to Michigan St.

Notre Dame: Either 1 of the top 3 OR The Big 12 champ needs to lose a game. The LSU/Alabama loser will open a spot for them, but Baylor would jump them if they win out.

Iowa: Win out, would replace Ohio State.

Baylor: Win out, would jump ND and the LSU/Alabama loser.

Stanford: Need Big 12 champion to lose a game. Same scenario as Notre Dame, except Big 12 already in front of them.

Oklahoma St: Win out, Baylor scenario applies.

LSU: Win out, including SEC CG. Can they lose? Yes, but not to Alabama or Ole Miss. Needs Alabama to lose.

Utah: Stanford needs to beat Notre Dame AND Big 12 champ needs to lose one.

Florida: Win out, would replace winner of LSU/Alabama.

Oklahoma: There can’t be 3 unbeaten Power 5 champions and a 1 loss Notre Dame.

Michigan St: Win out, would take Ohio State’s spot. AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, PAC 12 champ

Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose twice once AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, PAC 12 champ (can’t be Utah). AND Memphis needs a loss.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

TCU

Florida St

Mississippi St

Northwestern

UCLA

Navy

Memphis

Temple

North Carolina

Houston

Wisconsin

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, there would be zero Power 5 teams with fewer than 2 losses. Some hypothetical game results may seem unlikely, but none would be close to the biggest upset of the season. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII
Week 11 Oklahoma loses at Baylor Oklahoma St loses at Iowa St
Week 12 Baylor loses at Oklahoma St TCU loses at Oklahoma
Week 13 Baylor loses at TCU Oklahoma St loses to Oklahoma
ACC/Independent
Week 13 Clemson loses at South Carolina UNC loses at NC St Notre Dame loses at Stanford
Week 14 Clemson loses ACC CG
Big Ten
Week 11 Ohio St loses at Illinois  Iowa loses to Minnesota
Week 12 Michigan St loses at Ohio St
Week 13 Ohio St loses at Michigan Iowa loses at Nebraska
Week 14 If Ohio St or Iowa wins in Week 11 , that team loses Big Ten CG
PAC12
Week 12 Utah loses to UCLA
Week 14 Stanford loses PAC12 CG
SEC
Week 11 Alabama loses at Miss St
Week 12 LSU loses at Ole Miss
Week 13 Florida loses to Florida St
Week 14 If Alabama, LSU, or Florida win their week 11-13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important game in Week 11:

Oklahoma at Baylor

The loser is almost certainly out of the running for the playoffs. Chaos is calling for Oklahoma to lose since it gives them a 2nd loss and eliminates any chance that they can get to the top 4, and Baylor still has 2 road games against ranked teams.