BoW 2015 College Football Ranking Index Week 13

Rankings updated thru Week 13 (11/28/2015): (Full 128 FBS Rankings Week 13)

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Oklahoma XII
3 Clemson ACC
4 Michigan State B1G
5 Stanford PAC12
6 Ohio State B1G
7 Iowa B1G
8 Northwestern B1G
9 Oregon PAC12
10 North Carolina ACC
11 Florida State ACC
12 Mississippi SEC
13 Texas Christian XII
14 Notre Dame Ind
15 Oklahoma State XII
16 Southern California PAC12
17 Baylor XII
18 Florida SEC
19 Michigan B1G
20 Utah PAC12
21 Louisiana State SEC
22 Miami (FL) ACC
23 UCLA PAC12
24 Arkansas SEC
25 Houston Amer

 

Highlights from Week 13: Despite no changes in my top 5, the playoff picture became much clearer. Upsets in the ACC or SEC championship games this week could untidy the bracket, but for now it is simple: Oklahoma is in, Alabama and Clemson win and they’re in, and the Big Ten champion is in.

ACC: Clemson hangs on to beat in-state rival South Carolina and will retain their playoff seeding with a win over North Carolina this week.

B1G: Ohio State finally woke up after sleepwalking through their regular season to earn their first win over a ranked opponent. Too little, too late, as Iowa will face Michigan State in Indianapolis this week for a spot in the CFP.

Big XII: Oklahoma makes a statement that they belong in the CFP after blasting Oklahoma State on the road.

PAC12: Stanford ended Notre Dame’s playoff hopes on a last second field goal and now get a rematch with USC to keep their ultra-slim playoff hopes alive. The Cardinal won the first round with the Trojans back in September.

SEC: Florida gets clobbered at home, but can still play spoiler to Alabama this week in Atlanta.

Prediction for CFP top 4: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa. Stanford should move up to the top 7, along with Michigan State and Ohio State. The committee would have a tough decision to make if one of Alabama/Clemson lose; setting up well for the Big Ten to get two bids. A Stanford win would make for a tough decision between the 1-loss Buckeyes and 2-loss PAC12 champ.

Advertisements

Ticket watch Week 13

Week Home Rank Home team Opp Opp Rank Entry price Notes
13 12 Florida Florida St 13 207
13 Auburn Alabama 2 161
13 11 Oklahoma St Oklahoma 3 154
13 10 Michigan Ohio St 8 148
13 Nebraska Iowa 4 142 Friday game
13 Southern Cal UCLA 22 139
13 Washington Washington St 20 119 Friday game
13 21 Mississippi St Ole Miss 18 113
13 NC State North Carolina 14 101
13 South Carolina Clemson 1 78
13 9 Stanford Notre Dame 6 72
13 19 TCU Baylor 7 49 Friday game
13 17 Oregon Oregon St 44 Friday game
13 16 Northwestern Illinois 39 at Soldier Field
13 23 Utah Colorado 34
13 24 Toledo Western Michigan 22 Friday game
13 25 Temple UConn 17
13 Houston Navy 15 9 Friday game
13 5 Michigan St Penn St 0

MSU Ticket PricesMichigan State! What is going on here?? This is a game where they can clinch the division, and students are giving away tickets on StubHub. Meanwhile, their athletic department is getting desperate too:MSU ticket promo

This can be looked at in a couple ways. First, if you’re a Michigan State fan, this is an absolute steal of a price to go see your playoff-contending team in their home finale. On the other hand, why in the world is Michigan State struggling to fill their stadium when the team is ranked #5 and coming off an enormous win? This is not a new phenomenon, as just two weeks ago Michigan State struggled to sell tickets for the Maryland game. I do have a hypothesis, and would love to be proven wrong because it is just a sad indictment of their inferiority complex and/or obsession with the University of Michigan: Michigan State fans do not want to attend their team’s home games because doing so would prevent them from watching Michigan play.

I say this because I know a lot of Spartan fans that love watching their team play. However, a startling number of them rarely attend games (the exception being when they play Michigan), but love watching them on TV. It’s not for a lack of interest in their team, or not wanting to be outside in the cold (they LOVE tailgating). Their game this week is far from the least appealing match-up on this list. It is indisputably more appealing than Toledo/Western Michigan, Temple/UConn, and Utah/Colorado. And while it is an artificial rivalry, it is still a more appealing match-up on the field than Northwestern/Illinois, Oregon/Oregon St, North Carolina/NC State, or Clemson/South Carolina, all of which are commanding more than the MSU ticket office promotion. In a vacuum their lack of attendance doesn’t seem too bad, but placed side by side with other ranked teams it is pretty damning.

Anyway, great value in the Stanford/Notre Dame and TCU/Baylor games this week. The top ten most expensive are all rivalry games, with ranking seeming to correlate well to price.

 

CFP vs BoW Poll 11/24/2015

2015 BoW vs CFP Rankings Week 12, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names.

Baylor, Florida St, Navy, and Temple(?) are all overvalued by the committee. Florida St and Baylor can validate their rankings with wins over ranked opponents this week. Oregon is playing much better than their ranking, as is North Carolina (watch out, Clemson).

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.

Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.

Oklahoma: Beat Oklahoma St, and may still need help from Stanford beating Notre Dame or Big Ten chaos.

Iowa: Win out, probably can’t lose to Nebraska this week.

Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame. Small chance they could be selected over 1 loss Big XII (probably not Oklahoma), and a 1-loss Notre Dame probably jumps them.

Notre Dame: Beat Stanford and they’ll probably be in, but an Oklahoma loss would help.

Baylor: Win out, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St, AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Ohio St: Win out, Michigan St needs to lose to Penn St AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor.

Stanford: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Oklahoma, Baylor.

Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose AND 3 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St AND Stanford can’t win the PAC12.

Oklahoma St: Beat Oklahoma, need Stanford to beat Notre Dame then lose PAC12 CG, and need Baylor to lose a game.

Florida: Beating Florida St and Alabama might be enough to get back in, but still would need an exceptional amount of outside help.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

Florida St

North Carolina

Navy

Northwestern

Oregon

Mississippi

TCU

Washington St

Mississippi State

UCLA

Utah

Toledo

Temple

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, only the Oklahoma/Oklahoma St winner would have fewer than two losses. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII
Week 13 Baylor loses at TCU Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St
ACC/Independent
Week 13 Clemson loses at South Carolina UNC loses at NC St Notre Dame loses at Stanford
Week 14 Clemson loses ACC CG
Big Ten
Week 13 Ohio St loses at Michigan Iowa loses at Nebraska  Michigan St loses to Penn St
Week 14 Iowa loses Big Ten CG
PAC12
Entire conference has 2+ losses each
SEC
Week 13 Florida loses to Florida St  Alabama loses at Auburn
Week 14 If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important games in Week 13:

Iowa at Nebraska

Baylor at TCU

Ohio St at Michigan

Clemson at South Carolina

Penn St at Michigan St

Alabama at Auburn

North Carolina at NC State

Florida St at Florida

Notre Dame at Stanford

Oklahoma at Oklahoma St

Teams in bold still have playoff dreams, and a loss this late almost certainly knocks them out (Clemson being the lone possible exception).

Ticket watch will be a little earlier this week; tonight or tomorrow morning.

 

BoW 2015 College Football Ranking Index Week 12

Rankings updated thru Week 12 (11/21/2015): (Full 128 FBS Rankings)

*Note: WordPress discontinued their free table formatting, so now it looks like this. The linked spreadsheet is much easier to read.

Rank Team Conference
1 Alabama SEC
2 Oklahoma XII
3 Clemson ACC
4 Michigan State B1G
5 Stanford PAC12
6 Iowa B1G
7 Notre Dame Ind
8 Oregon PAC12
9 North Carolina ACC
10 Florida SEC
11 Northwestern B1G
12 Oklahoma State XII
13 Ohio State B1G
14 Michigan B1G
15 Baylor XII
16 Utah PAC12
17 Mississippi SEC
18 UCLA PAC12
19 Washington State PAC12
20 Southern California PAC12
21 Texas Christian XII
22 Mississippi State SEC
23 Florida State ACC
24 Pittsburgh ACC
25 Louisiana State SEC

Highlights from Week 12: Alabama remains atop the standings. Oklahoma and Clemson switch places. Michigan State jumps into the top 4.

ACC: North Carolina survives the Frank Beamer farewell. Boston College hangs with Notre Dame, costing the Irish some crucial style points late in the season.

B1G: Michigan State pulls off the win of the year (so far) at Ohio St, clearing their path to the playoff. Iowa remains unbeaten.

Big XII: Oklahoma State is unbeaten no more, as Baylor leaves Stillwater with a 10 point victory. Oklahoma barely hangs on against TCU, and now seems to be the conference’s best bet at a playoff bid.

PAC12: Does anybody in the PAC12 South want to win the conference? Utah loses again and finds itself in a 3 way tie in the south division with USC and UCLA. Stanford clinches the North.

SEC: LSU is in free-fall, dropping their 3rd straight with all 3 by double digits. Florida avoids national embarrassment by hanging on in overtime against a horrible Florida Atlantic team.

Elsewhere: Houston finally loses, and not to who you’d expect. UConn becomes bowl eligible with the win over the Cougars, and the Group of 5 is officially out of the running for a playoff berth.

Prediction for CFP top 4: Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, and…Iowa? Michigan State? Oklahoma? My formula says it’ll be Oklahoma, but Iowa wasn’t really unimpressive enough to get jumped by a team with a worse record. I’ll post the comparison of polls, scenarios going forward, and a week 13 preview next time.

Ticket watch Week 12

Ticket prices for games with ranked teams. The drop in price for Iowa’s game from last week is surprising. There’s great value in games with two top 25 teams in games at Wisconsin and Oklahoma St. Notre Dame tickets are again among the most expensive, though the venue (Fenway Park) likely plays a role. Michigan St goes from least expensive ticket at home last week to most expensive on the road this week. They may return to the bottom again next week, but could avoid it with a win in Columbus.

2015 BoW Full Rankings thru Week 11

The complete BoW rankings of all FBS teams updated with results through Week 11 can be found here.

CFP vs BoW Poll 11/17/2015

CFP and BoW rankings, with difference in ranking between outlets listed in between team names:

11/17/15 poll CFP Diff BoW
1 Clemson -1 Alabama
2 Alabama 1 Clemson
3 Ohio State -5 Oklahoma
4 Notre Dame -2 Iowa
5 Iowa 1 Oklahoma State
6 Oklahoma State 1 Notre Dame
7 Oklahoma 4 Stanford
8 Florida -1 Ohio State
9 Michigan State -1 Florida
10 Baylor -14 Michigan State
11 Stanford 4 Utah
12 Michigan -5 North Carolina
13 Utah 2 Southern California
14 Florida State -6 Northwestern
15 Louisiana State -4 Oregon
16 Navy -9 Texas Christian
17 North Carolina 5 Michigan
18 Texas Christian 2 Houston
19 Houston 1 Louisiana State
20 Northwestern 6 Florida State
21 Memphis -6 Arkansas
22 Mississippi 0 Mississippi
23 Oregon 8 Washington State
24 Southern California 11 Baylor
25 Wisconsin -1 Navy

My formula likes both USC and Oregon more than the committee does, and continues to look down upon Baylor. It sees Oklahoma as the class of the Big XII.

Paths of Least Resistance

Each week, I will highlight the least convoluted path a team can take to get into the playoff. Granted, many alternate scenarios could result in the same outcome for a given team. In the interest of keeping this concise and easy-ish to follow, I’ll only give the clearest scenario and whether or not the team can afford a loss and still make the field of 4.

Clemson: Win out, including ACC CG. Can they lose? Maybe, but they need to win the ACC.

Alabama: Win out, cannot afford a loss.

Ohio St: Win out, including Big Ten CG. Can they lose? Probably not. November losses have shown to be judged harshly by the committee.

Notre Dame: The Big 12 champ needs to lose a game. Oklahoma St would jump them if they win out.

Iowa: Win out, would replace Ohio State.

Oklahoma St: Win out, would replace Notre Dame.

Oklahoma: Need two of top 5 to lose.

Florida: Win out, would replace Alabama.

Michigan St: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Baylor: Win out AND 1 of the following needs to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Stanford: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

Michigan: Michigan State needs to lose AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame, PAC 12 champ (can’t be Utah).

Utah: Win out, including PAC12 CG, AND 2 of the following need to have 2 losses: SEC champ, Big Ten champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Notre Dame.

All of the teams below cannot get to the top 4 (without Mass Chaos, see below), either due to too many losses, too weak a schedule, no chance to win their division, or a combination of any/all of these.

Florida St

LSU

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Houston

Northwestern

Memphis

Mississippi

Oregon

Southern California

Wisconsin

Mass Chaos

If your team is currently below the threshold to get in the playoff without mass chaos, here is a chart of the most probable game results needed to create the amount of chaos necessary to completely blow up the paths outlined above. If all of the following happened, there would be zero Power 5 teams with fewer than 2 losses. Some hypothetical game results may seem unlikely, but none would be close to the biggest upset of the season. Bold lettered games indicate a loss to a team not in the current CFP Top 25.

Big XII
Week 12 Oklahoma St loses to Baylor Oklahoma loses to TCU
Week 13 TCU loses to Baylor Oklahoma St loses to Oklahoma
Week 14  Baylor loses to Texas
ACC/Independent
Week 13 Clemson loses at South Carolina UNC loses at NC St Notre Dame loses at Stanford
Week 14 Clemson loses ACC CG
Big Ten
Week 12 Ohio St loses to Michigan St
Week 13 Ohio St loses at Michigan Iowa loses at Nebraska  Michigan St loses to Penn St
Week 14 Iowa loses Big Ten CG
PAC12
Entire conference has 2+ losses each
SEC
Week 13 Florida loses to Florida St  Alabama loses at Auburn
Week 14 If Alabama or Florida win their week 13 game, then that team loses the SEC CG

Important games in Week 12:

Michigan St at Ohio St

Baylor at Oklahoma St

TCU at Oklahoma

The winner of Michigan St/Ohio St maintains control of their own destiny. The Big 12 will remove at least 1 contender in the TCU/Oklahoma game, and Oklahoma St can end Baylor’s playoff dreams.