BoW Merit Index Final Standings 2014

I waited until after the Army/Navy game to post final standings, since that game impacted one team in particular that made the playoffs. Ohio State’s win over Navy gained in value ever so slightly with that last win, and it was enough to jump them into 3rd place. The final index is included below. I’m not sure how useful this will be as a predictor of bowl game winners, but I am tracking those results and will post my findings at the conclusion of bowl season. Note that the committee selected the same top 4 as my index (also note that I had the final top 4 selected in week 14), and my index had the all same teams in the top 6 as the committee (though a different order). UPDATE: The bowl prediction results were not much better than a coin flip; only 22 of 39 games were picked correctly using the index ratings. However, the games where the index rating gaps were widest were much more likely to be picked correctly than small index gaps, as was reflected in the confidence pool pick ’em that I used to track results. I will likely make some tweaks to the formula in the off-season, but the first version is promising for the future.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Final Oregon Florida State Ohio State Alabama Texas Christian Baylor Georgia Tech Michigan State Arizona Wisconsin
Week15 Oregon Florida State Alabama Ohio State Texas Christian Baylor Georgia Tech Michigan State Arizona Wisconsin
Week14 Oregon Ohio State Florida State Alabama Texas Christian UCLA Georgia Tech Arizona Baylor Wisconsin
Week13 Oregon Ohio State UCLA Florida State Baylor Georgia Alabama Arizona State Wisconsin Texas Christian
Week12 Oregon Ohio State Florida State Georgia Alabama Baylor UCLA Texas Christian Arizona State Georgia Tech
Week11 Oregon Baylor UCLA Florida State Texas Christian Arizona State Ohio State Alabama Mississippi State Georgia
Week10 Oregon Florida State Mississippi State Auburn Texas Christian Arizona State UCLA Ohio State Oklahoma Alabama
Week9 Oregon Mississippi State Marshall Mississippi Alabama Florida State Auburn Michigan State Arizona State Louisiana State
Week8 Marshall Mississippi Florida State Oregon Mississippi State Baylor Alabama Georgia Ohio State Michigan State
Week7 Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Baylor Auburn Oklahoma Florida State Texas A&M Oregon Georgia
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee
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BoW Merit Index: Week 14

I missed the write-up for last week’s results but have included the Week 13 Top 10 in the table below. The top 5 as it stands now are the Power 5 conference champions, with TCU currently on the outside looking in, but just barely behind Alabama. The conference championship games should definitely decide which 4 conferences are represented and, barring a series of improbably events, no conference will have 2 representatives in the playoff. It will be fascinating to see where Georgia Tech, Arizona, or Wisconsin end up if any of them pull the upset this week.

#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10
Week14 Oregon Ohio State Florida State Alabama Texas Christian UCLA Georgia Tech Arizona Baylor Wisconsin
Week13 Oregon Ohio State UCLA Florida State Baylor Georgia Alabama Arizona State Wisconsin Texas Christian
Week12 Oregon Ohio State Florida State Georgia Alabama Baylor UCLA Texas Christian Arizona State Georgia Tech
Week11 Oregon Baylor UCLA Florida State Texas Christian Arizona State Ohio State Alabama Mississippi State Georgia
Week10 Oregon Florida State Mississippi State Auburn Texas Christian Arizona State UCLA Ohio State Oklahoma Alabama
Week9 Oregon Mississippi State Marshall Mississippi Alabama Florida State Auburn Michigan State Arizona State Louisiana State
Week8 Marshall Mississippi Florida State Oregon Mississippi State Baylor Alabama Georgia Ohio State Michigan State
Week7 Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Baylor Auburn Oklahoma Florida State Texas A&M Oregon Georgia
Week6 Baylor Texas A&M Auburn UCLA Ohio State Mississippi State Mississippi Marshall Oklahoma Florida State
Week5 Texas A&M Baylor Nebraska Oklahoma UCLA Brigham Young Alabama Mississippi Auburn Texas Christian
Week4 Texas A&M Oklahoma Alabama Baylor Brigham Young Mississippi State Arkansas Mississippi Duke Auburn
Week3 Texas A&M Baylor Mississippi Oklahoma Brigham Young Pittsburgh Alabama Notre Dame Mississippi State Arizona State
Week2 Brigham Young Texas A&M Oklahoma Mississippi Baylor Auburn Notre Dame Arizona State Pittsburgh Temple
Week1 Temple Texas A&M Mississippi State Texas State Nebraska Memphis Pittsburgh Arizona Baylor Middle Tennessee