College Football Preview 2017 Part 4: Projections

The first 3 parts of this preview series looked at coaches, rosters, and schedules. Now, we’ll put it all together and project how well each FBS team will perform this season.

The table below will be updated throughout the season to track up-to-date projections as well as compare against how accurate the pre-season projections turn out to be. In addition to team and conference affiliation, the table displays the following:

Preseason expected wins (this will remain unchanged throughout the season)

Over/under win totals, per Bovada

Current expected wins (will be updated weekly throughout the season)

Difference between current expected wins and over/under (updated weekly)

Favored games (number of games where team has greater than 65% win probability)

Favored toss-ups (between 50-65% win probability)

Underdog toss-ups (between 35-50% win probability)

Underdogs (less than 35% win probability)

Current probability that team will be undefeated in regular season (updated weekly).

To open table in a new window, click here

A few takeaways from this table:

• It would take a mild upset somewhere along the way for each of Ohio State, Alabama, Washington, and South Florida to not go 12-0 in the regular season.
• My numbers are very optimistic on UAB, Nevada, Hawaii, and UTEP; each with more than 2.5 expected wins above the Bovada over/under.
• Conversely, my numbers are not high on Minnesota, Army, San Diego State, Louisiana Tech, and Miami OH; each with more than 2.5 expected wins below the Bovada over/under.
• It is a bit surprising to see Boise State projected at only 6.17 and Stanford at 6.77 wins. Stanford has a pretty brutal schedule, but Boise’s is manageable. They’re one to keep an eye on.
• UCLA at only 5.48 wins doesn’t bode well for Jim Mora coaching the Bruins in 2018. Notre Dame at 7.06 may not be enough for Brian Kelly, either.

Postseason Outlook

It really doesn’t make much sense to forecast postseason results before the season has begun because so many factors have yet to be realized (injuries, breakout players), but for ease of interpreting my full FBS projections here are the projected postseason championships based on the information available today.

Conference championship projections (projected winners in bold)

ACC Clemson vs Miami FL

Big Ten Ohio State vs Wisconsin

Big XII Oklahoma vs Texas

Pac12 Washington vs USC

SEC Alabama vs Georgia

American South Florida vs Memphis

CUSA Western Kentucky vs UTSA

MAC Ohio vs Central Michigan

Mountain West Hawaii vs Colorado State

Sun Belt Appalachian State (Sun Belt championship game beginning in 2018)

Playoff Projection (does this look familiar?)

Ohio State vs. Clemson

Alabama vs. Washington

Championship game: Ohio State vs Alabama

National Champion: Alabama

Despite a projected 13-0 season, South Florida’s schedule is far too weak to be considered for a playoff berth. It is thoroughly disappointing that my numbers project the same 4 teams as appeared in the 2016 College Football Playoff, but each of these 4 returns a very strong roster (the top 3 nationally plus Clemson at 8th nationally), their schedules are manageable (Alabama’s is the toughest at 16th but their toughest game is in week 1, while the other 3 schedules rank in the 50s), and they’ve all been on the biggest stage recently so they know what it takes to get there. At any rate, I’m confident some sort of chaos will derail at least one of these teams’ chances, but I don’t have a way to quantify that chaos yet.

This marks the end of my 2017 season preview series. Now we have actual college football games to watch this week! Win probabilities for Week 0 games will be posted prior to Saturday.

 

College Football Preview 2017 Part 3: Schedules

Scheduling matters. A team may have its strongest roster in years, but if it faces a brutal schedule it may not produce a record to reflect the strength of its roster. Conversely, a team may be over-valued due to a cakewalk of a schedule.

Biggest games of the year

The 2017 season features 3 games in which it is the hardest game of the year for both teams:

Alabama vs Florida State

Ohio State at Michigan

South Florida at Central Florida

 

These first two should not be too surprising, but when you look at South Florida’s schedule and realize their most difficult game is at Central Florida it’s no wonder they are a heavy favorite to be the G5 representative in a NY6 bowl.

The table below ranks the overall strength of schedule (regular season only) for all FBS teams. The SoS value represents the total number of standard deviations above or below a team’s complete schedule is relative to an “average” FBS schedule (i.e. cumulatively game-by-game, so if all games were 1 SD above the mean, the SoS value=12) . Additionally, the easiest game and 4 most difficult games with venues are listed next to each team to help illustrate why their schedule ranks in its position.

To open worksheet in a new window, click here

Up next: Putting it all together. Season projections will go up later this week, as we have actual college football games beginning on Saturday.

 

College Football Preview 2017 Part 2: Rosters

*Note: Most teams have not posted their Fall rosters yet, so this preview is looking at Spring 2017 rosters. Values will change slightly as Fall rosters become available; freshmen who didn’t enroll early, off-season attrition, and injuries/suspensions have not yet been factored into my roster values.

 

I evaluate rosters by looking at a few components: returning all-conference/all-American team members, recruiting rankings, and class standing for every player on every roster. After assigning each player a score, I add up the scores for the top-70 rated players on each roster to determine the overall roster value. I’ve settled on 70 instead of the 85 full-scholarship number because players beyond the 70th man on the roster are rarely seeing any game action. I also adjust for injuries/suspensions such that if a player in the top 70 will be out for a game, his player score will temporarily be set to zero and everyone beneath him moves up a slot, so the 71st player on the roster would then move into the top 70 and their score would count towards the roster value. Roster values are used in combination with coach win/expectation rate and game venue to compare teams and determine the likelihood of winning a given game.

 

Once again, Alabama and Ohio State are in a class by themselves when it comes to talent on the roster. Newcomers to FBS for 2017, UAB and Coastal Carolina, may be facing a bit of an acclimation period until they can assemble a more complete roster, though UAB compares rather favorably to their Conference USA brethren.

It’s a bit jarring to see Illinois and Syracuse so low on this list. South Florida should be a serious contender for a NY6 bowl in year 1 under Charlie Strong.

 

School	Top 70	Conference
Alabama	106.25	SEC
Ohio State	106.25	B1G
Washington	92	P12
Florida State	89.5	ACC
Clemson	86.25	ACC
LSU	83.25	SEC
Oklahoma	80.25	XII
Georgia	79.5	SEC
Texas	77.25	XII
Auburn	76.25	SEC
Penn State	74.5	B1G
USC	72.5	P12
Oregon	71	P12
TCU	71	XII
UCLA	69.25	P12
Michigan	67.75	B1G
Florida	66	SEC
Notre Dame	65.75	Ind
South Florida	64.25	Amer
Ole Miss	64	SEC
Oklahoma State	63.25	XII
Texas A&M	62.25	SEC
Arizona State	58.25	P12
Tennessee	57.25	SEC
Kansas State	54.75	XII
Miami FL	54.5	ACC
Nebraska	54.25	B1G
Washington State	53	P12
Arkansas State	52.5	SunBelt
Michigan State	52.5	B1G
Utah	52.5	P12
Western Kentucky	52.25	CUSA
Louisville	52.25	ACC
Toledo	52	MAC
Arkansas	51.25	SEC
Troy	50	SunBelt
Central Michigan	49.25	MAC
BYU	48	Ind
Stanford	48	P12
Colorado	47.75	P12
North Carolina State	47.25	ACC
New Mexico State	46.75	SunBelt
Northern Illinois	46.5	MAC
Kentucky	46.25	SEC
Colorado State	46.25	MtnW
Iowa State	46	XII
Appalachian State	46	SunBelt
Baylor	45.25	XII
Memphis	45	Amer
Pitt	45	ACC
Central Florida	44.75	Amer
Maryland	44.75	B1G
Northwestern	44.25	B1G
Western Michigan	44	MAC
Ohio	43.75	MAC
San Diego State	43.75	MtnW
Nevada	43.25	MtnW
Boise State	43.25	MtnW
Mississippi State	43	SEC
Akron	42.75	MAC
Houston	42.75	Amer
California	42.75	P12
North Carolina	42.75	ACC
South Carolina	42	SEC
Tulsa	41.5	Amer
Temple	40.5	Amer
Missouri	40.25	SEC
Arizona	40	P12
Hawaii	39.75	MtnW
Virginia	39.75	ACC
Virginia Tech	39.5	ACC
Iowa	39.5	B1G
Wisconsin	39.5	B1G
Middle Tennessee	39.25	CUSA
Indiana	38.75	B1G
Southern Miss	38	CUSA
Georgia State	37.25	SunBelt
Vanderbilt	37.25	SEC
San Jose State	37.25	MtnW
Bowling Green	36.75	MAC
Oregon State	36.5	P12
UAB	36.5	CUSA
UTSA	36.25	CUSA
North Texas	36	CUSA
Eastern Michigan	35.25	MAC
West Virginia	35	XII
Louisiana-Lafayette	34.75	SunBelt
Florida Atlantic	34.5	CUSA
UTEP	34.5	CUSA
New Mexico	34.25	MtnW
Rice	34.25	CUSA
Minnesota	33.75	B1G
Old Dominion	33.5	CUSA
Georgia Tech	33	ACC
Purdue	32.75	B1G
Rutgers	32.25	B1G
Kent State	32	MAC
Cincinnati	32	Amer
Duke	31.75	ACC
East Carolina	31.5	Amer
Buffalo	31.5	MAC
Boston College	31	ACC
Idaho	30.5	SunBelt
Navy	30.5	Amer
Wyoming	30.5	MtnW
Texas Tech	30.5	XII
SMU	30.25	Amer
Connecticut	29.75	Amer
Wake Forest	29.75	ACC
Florida International	28.75	CUSA
Louisiana Tech	28.75	CUSA
Marshall	28.5	CUSA
Coastal Carolina	28.5	SunBelt
UNLV	27.5	MtnW
Fresno State	27.25	MtnW
Utah State	27	MtnW
Miami OH	26.5	MAC
Massachusetts	26.25	MAC
Tulane	26.25	Amer
Kansas	26	XII
Charlotte	26	CUSA
Georgia Southern	25.25	SunBelt
Ball State	24.75	MAC
Air Force	24.75	MtnW
Syracuse	24.25	ACC
Illinois	23	B1G
South Alabama	22.5	SunBelt
Louisiana-Monroe	22	SunBelt
Army	21.5	Ind
Texas State	18	SunBelt

Short preview this week, but the next two weeks previewing schedules and season projections, respectively, will feature much more content.

College Football Preview 2017 Part 1: Coaches

Fall camp is underway across the country, which means the season is finally around the corner! This year I have split the season preview into four parts: Coaches, Rosters, Schedules, and Projections. First up we’ll take a look at coaching, how it impacts a team’s success, how much turnover can be expected year-to-year, and how intertwined coaching ties have become at the Power 5 level.

Win/expectation rate

This value represents the rate which a coach wins games compared to their expectation, in terms of win probability. The input data is the most recent 4 seasons which a coach has led his current team, weighted towards the most recent seasons. If a coach has been with his team for fewer than 4 seasons, then his full tenure with the current team is used.

As an example, Paul Chryst* has the highest win/expectation rate among active coaches, at .3212. This means that Chryst increases Wisconsin’s win probability relative to their roster strength by approximately .32 standard deviations. By default, all coaches in their first year with a team start the season at zero and the rate adjusts after each game.

Coaches on the bottom end of the spectrum are likely to be fired without marked improvement. For reference, the lowest win/expectation rate in 2016 was Charlie Strong at Texas, with a rate of -.3126.

The inherent bias in this scale favors coaches who don’t recruit as strongly but win a lot of games, and penalizes coaches who recruit very strong rosters. This is why you don’t see names like Nick Saban or Urban Meyer near the top of this list (their recruiting prowess will be recognized in the Rosters preview).

*This high win expectation rate at Wisconsin tends to exist regardless of who is their current head coach, suggesting that recruiting ranking services are undervaluing Wisconsin prospects.

Highest win/expectation rates heading into 2017:

 

School	Coach	Win/Expectation Rate
Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	0.3212
Air Force	Troy Calhoun	0.3189
Navy	Ken Niumatalolo	0.3128
Tulsa	Philip Montgomery	0.2796
Appalachian State	Scott Satterfield	0.2496
Troy	Neal Brown	0.2251
West Virginia	Dana Holgorsen	0.2242
Utah	Kyle Whittingham	0.2187
Washington State	Mike Leach	0.2159
BYU	Kalani Sitake	0.2120
Virginia Tech	Justin Fuente	0.2051

Lowest win/expectation rates:

School	Coach	Win/Expectation Rate
East Carolina	Scottie Montgomery	-0.1735
Missouri	Barry Odom	-0.1748
Massachusetts	Mark Whipple	-0.1870
Kansas	David Beaty	-0.1933
Texas State	Everett Withers	-0.2029
Georgia	Kirby Smart	-0.2090
Rutgers	Chris Ash	-0.2252
Notre Dame	Brian Kelly	-0.2438
Charlotte	Brad Lambert	-0.2516
UCLA	Jim L. Mora	-0.3007
Virginia	Bronco Mendenhall	-0.3094

It’s not realistic to say a coach is actually on the hot seat in year 2 so most of these guys don’t belong in that conversation just yet, though if they under-perform expectations again their names may come up in that discussion next year. Brian Kelly and Jim Mora, on the other hand, desperately need to have a successful 2017. It’s interesting to see BYU with one of the highest rates and their former coach Bronco Mendenhall with the lowest rate. Another year will shed light on whether he is a good fit at Virginia.

New coaches

FBS coaching turnover rate is typically around 22 coaches per year, and 2017 falls right in line with 23 coaches starting their first season with their team. The lowest number of new coaches to start a season since 1987 was 11 in 1988 followed by 12 in 2006. The highest number of new coaches was 33 to start the 2013 season.

Team	New Coach	Coach’s Previous Stop
Baylor	Matt Rhule	Temple, Head Coach
California	Justin Wilcox	Wisconsin, DC
Cincinnati	Luke Fickell	Ohio State, co-DC
Connecticut	Randy Edsall	Detroit Lions, staff
Florida Atlantic	Lane Kiffin	Alabama, OC
Florida International	Butch Davis	North Carolina, HC (2010)
Fresno State	Jeff Tedford	Washington, staff
Georgia State	Shawn Elliott	South Carolina, OL
Houston	Major Applewhite	Houston, OC
Indiana	Tom Allen	Indiana, DC
LSU	Ed Orgeron	LSU, DL & interim Head Coach
Minnesota	P. J. Fleck	Western Michigan, Head Coach
Nevada	Jay Norvell	Arizona State, PGC
Oklahoma	Lincoln Riley	Oklahoma, OC
Ole Miss	Matt Luke	Ole Miss, OC
Oregon	Willie Taggart	South Florida, Head Coach
Purdue	Jeff Brohm	Western Kentucky, Head Coach
San Jose State	Brent Brennan	Oregon State, WR
South Florida	Charlie Strong	Texas, Head Coach
Temple	Geoff Collins	Florida, DC
Texas	Tom Herman	Houston, Head Coach
Western Kentucky	Mike Sanford Jr	Notre Dame, OC
Western Michigan	Tim Lester	Purdue, QB

 

Iowa is the only FBS program to have the same coach since 2000. Houston and Georgia Southern have experienced the most coaching turnover in that time, each with 7 different head coaches during the Kirk Ferentz era at Iowa.

Next Man Up (Power 5 only)

In order to prepare for inevitable turnover, athletic directors across the country need to have a list of names ready to go should a replacement be needed on short notice. Here are some names that are likely to be in the conversation for Power 5 openings in 2018, as well as candidates with ties* to each Power 5 school:

Available Big-Name coaches:

Art Briles– Fired amidst scandal at Baylor. At age 61 and carrying recent baggage, it is unlikely that Briles will land a head coaching gig again, but a desperate program may take a flyer on him at OC.

Jeff Fisher– Most recently coached the Los Angeles Rams in 2016, Fisher has never coached outside of the NFL. At age 59, he may be content to stay out of coaching, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name floated around for high-profile college openings.

Hugh Freeze– Very recently let go at Ole Miss, Freeze may be a little toxic for a year or so. However, if Bobby Petrino can bounce back from his incident, Freeze should be able to as well. Freeze is only 47 years old; he’ll be back in coaching one day.

Jim Grobe– Last seen as Baylor’s interim coach in 2016, but at age 65 is probably not a viable head coaching hire anymore.

Mark Helfrich– Fired from Oregon after a disappointing 2016 season, but just 3 years removed from a national championship game appearance. Only 43 years old, Helfrich will definitely get another shot very soon.

Chip Kelly– Possibly the biggest name out there at the moment. Kelly will be mentioned for every high profile college and NFL opening until he accepts an offer. At 53 years old, he’s got plenty of years left in the tank.

Les Miles– Fired mid-season 2016 at LSU, but Miles is still very much a viable head-coaching candidate and has expressed interest in wanting to get back in the game ASAP. He’ll turn 64 this fall, but Miles would be a great get for a program looking to make a quick splash in recruiting.

Bo Pelini– Currently the head coach for FCS Youngstown State, but Pelini is way too good of a coach to stay at that level for long. He’s only 49 years old, and last year took the Penguins to the FCS championship game. He won 9 or 10 games in each of his 7 seasons as Nebraska’s head coach.

Bob Stoops– Recently retired from Oklahoma and has publicly stated he wants to enjoy his retirement, but programs will definitely attempt to lure Stoops back into the game. He’ll turn 57 this season.

Jim Tressel– Currently the president at Youngstown State. It seems like if Tressel was going to get back into coaching it would’ve happened for the 2017 season, as his show-cause penalty expired in December 2016. He’s 64 years old, so it’s difficult to imagine a high-profile program chasing him, but this would be a very splashy hire for anyone looking to get a little publicity.

Tommy Tuberville– Most recently fired from Cincinnati, Tuberville may not grab another head coaching gig at age 62, but would be an appealing addition to a staff for recruiting purposes.

Team	Current Coach	Replacement Candidate & connection
Alabama	Nick Saban	Dabo Swinney, Clemson head coach- former Alabama player & WR coach
Arizona State	Todd Graham	Jay Norvell, Nevada head coach- former Arizona State PGC
Arizona	Rich Rodriguez	Dino Babers, Syracuse head coach- former Arizona OC
Arkansas	Bret Bielema	Gus Malzahn, Auburn head coach- former Arkansas OC
Auburn	Gus Malzahn	Jimbo Fisher, Florida State head coach- former Auburn QB coach
Baylor	Matt Rhule	Philip Montgomery, Tulsa head coach- former Baylor OC
Boston College	Steve Addazio	Doug Martin, New Mexico State head coach- former Boston College OC
California	Justin Wilcox	Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns head coach- former California OC
Clemson	Dabo Swinney	Chad Morris, SMU head coach- former Clemson OC
Colorado	Mike MacIntyre	Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern head coach- former Colorado GA
Duke	David Cutcliffe	Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina head coach- former Duke OC
Florida	Jim McElwain	Geoff Collins, Temple head coach- former Florida DC
Florida State	Jimbo Fisher	Kirby Smart, Georgia head coach- former Florida State GA
Georgia	Kirby Smart	Mike Bobo, Colorado State head coach- former Georgia OC
Georgia Tech	Paul Johnson	Jeff Monken, Army head coach- former Georgia Tech RB coach
Illinois	Lovie Smith	Paul Petrino, Idaho head coach- former Illinois OC
Indiana	Tom Allen	Rod Carey, Northern Illinois head coach- former Indiana player
Iowa	Kirk Ferentz	Bret Bielema, Arkansas head coach- former Iowa player & LB coach
Iowa State	Matt Campbell	Chris Ash, Rutgers head coach- former Iowa State DB coach
Kansas	David Beaty	Dave Doeren, North Carolina State head coach- former Kansas co-DC
Kansas State	Bill Snyder	Brad Lambert, Charlotte head coach- former Kansas State player
Kentucky	Mark Stoops	Neal Brown, Troy head coach- former Kentucky OC
Louisville	Bobby Petrino	Jeff Brohm, Purdue head coach- former Louisville player & OC
LSU	Ed Orgeron	Frank Wilson, UTSA head coach- former LSU RB coach
Maryland	D.J. Durkin	Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State head coach- former Maryland PGC
Miami FL	Mark Richt	Mark Whipple, Massachusetts head coach- former Miami FL OC
Michigan State	Mark Dantonio	Pat Narduzzi, Pitt head coach- former Michigan State DC
Michigan	Jim Harbaugh	D.J. Durkin, Maryland head coach- former Michigan DC
Minnesota	P. J. Fleck	Everett Withers, Texas State head coach- former Minnesota DC
Mississippi State	Dan Mullen	Mark Hudspeth, Louisiana-Lafayette head coach- former Mississippi State PGC
Missouri	Barry Odom	Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach- former Missouri OC
Nebraska	Mike Riley	Scott Frost, Central Florida head coach- former Nebraska player & GA
North Carolina	Larry Fedora	Blake Anderson, Arkansas State head coach- former North Carolina OC
North Carolina State	Dave Doeren	Doc Holliday, Marshall head coach- former North Carolina State WR coach
Northwestern^	Pat Fitzgerald	Kevin Wilson, Ohio State OC- former Northwestern OC
Notre Dame	Brian Kelly	Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech head coach, former Notre Dame OC
Ohio State	Urban Meyer	Tom Herman, Texas head coach- former Ohio State OC
Oklahoma	Lincoln Riley	Seth Littrell, North Texas head coach- former Oklahoma player
Oklahoma State	Mike Gundy	Larry Fedora, North Carolina head coach- former Oklahoma State OC
Ole Miss	Matt Luke	Tom Allen, Indiana head coach- former Ole Miss LB coach
Oregon	Willie Taggart	Chris Petersen, Washington head coach- former Oregon WR coach
Oregon State	Gary Andersen	Kalani Sitake, BYU head coach- former Oregon State DC
Penn State	James Franklin	Matt Rhule, Baylor head coach- former Penn State player
Pitt	Pat Narduzzi	Mike Norvell, Memphis head coach- former Pitt  co-OC
Purdue	Jeff Brohm	Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M head coach- former Purdue player & WR coach
Rutgers	Chris Ash	P.J. Fleck, Minnesota head coach- former Rutgers WR coach
South Carolina	Will Muschamp	Shawn Elliott, Georgia State head coach- former South Carolina co-OC
Stanford	David Shaw	Willie Taggart, Oregon head coach- former Stanford RB coach
Syracuse	Dino Babers	Tim Lester, Western Michigan head coach- former Syracuse OC
TCU	Gary Patterson	Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech head coach- former TCU co-OC
Tennessee	Butch Jones	Dave Clawson, Wake Forest head coach- former Tennessee OC
Texas A&M	Kevin Sumlin	David Beaty, Kansas head coach- former Texas A&M WR coach
Texas	Tom Herman	Major Applewhite, Houston head coach- former Texas player & co-OC
Texas Tech	Kliff Kingsbury	Mike Jinks, Bowling Green head coach- former Texas Tech RB coach
UCLA	Jim L. Mora	Brent Brennan, San Jose State head coach, former UCLA player
USC	Clay Helton	Mike Riley, Nebraska head coach- former USC OC
Utah	Kyle Whittingham	Gary Andersen, Oregon State head coach- former Utah DC
Vanderbilt	Derek Mason	Mike MacIntyre, Colorado head coach- former Vanderbilt player#
Virginia	Bronco Mendenhall	No obvious candidate with ties to school
Virginia Tech	Justin Fuente	Bud Foster, current Virginia Tech DC
Wake Forest	Dave Clawson	Troy Calhoun, Air Force head coach- former Wake Forest OC
Washington	Chris Petersen	Jim L. Mora, UCLA head coach- former Washington player & GA
Washington State	Mike Leach	James Franklin, Penn State head coach- former Washington State TE coach
West Virginia	Dana Holgorsen	Todd Graham, Arizona State head coach- former West Virginia co-DC
Wisconsin	Paul Chryst	Justin Wilcox, California head coach- former Wisconsin DC

 

*Incredibly, every Power 5 program except Virginia and Virginia Tech has ties to a current head coach in either the NFL or at another FBS program. Note that the viability of candidates with ties to a school may not be great, this is just an illustration of how intertwined the coaching community is today.

^The only active head coach with Northwestern ties is Jim Caldwell with the Detroit Lions. At age 62, Caldwell seemed less likely than Wilson (age 55) as a candidate which would be mentioned as a viable replacement.

#MacIntyre eventually transferred to and graduated from Georgia Tech, but began his college playing career with Vanderbilt.

 

Checkmate

It started off so well. 29 of 32 in Round 1 with all of the Sweet 16 still intact. Then Wisconsin knocked out my national champion pick and my entire bracket is worthless. So, what went wrong?

• Don’t ignore the immeasurables. I was so immersed in the numbers from this season in the week leading up to the tournament that I completely ignored the factors that are either not quantifiable or difficult to objectively quantify. Villanova was the defending champ, and thus had a high likelihood of complacency in this year’s tournament. Unless a defending champion is returning an absurd amount of talent (like Florida in the 2007 tournament or Duke in the 1992 tournament), they are unlikely to pull off the repeat. In fact, history shows they’re much more likely to have an early exit than to make a deep run. Wisconsin, on the other hand, was wildly under-seeded and likely ticked off about it. They were set out to show the committee that they were wrong, and did so emphatically by handling Virginia Tech with relative ease in Round 1, followed by the biggest upset of the tournament in Round 2 by knocking off the defending champs.
• Protect the king! As I mentioned in my Bracket Guidelines last week, the early rounds don’t mean a thing if your champion gets knocked out early. It is vitally important to pick a viable champion; a safe champion. Villanova, despite what my formula proclaimed about their regular season successes, was not a safe pick. Their roster wasn’t nearly strong enough to justify a repeat championship, and their coach’s tournament history outside of last year is very underwhelming. Last year’s run was a historical anomaly for Jay Wright; this year was par for the course.

Aside from the wacky East region, the rest of my bracket turned out just fine, with 12 of my Sweet 16 advancing and 6 of the Elite 8 remaining. That one missing piece though is an absolute crater. I’ll be sure to make mention of the non-quantifiable factors next year prior to the start of the tournament.

I may post a tournament recap in a couple weeks if there is an interesting conclusion but otherwise will be shifting into off-season mode, which means a much lower frequency of posts. I do have a few off-season features in the works that aim to answer some misunderstood statistical claims:

• Is it really that difficult to beat a team for a 3rd time in a season?
• Just how significant is home-court advantage, and how much of it is attributable to officiating deference to the home team?

I’ll also update standings on my Best Dual Sports schools and shift data tables (such as the Best Dual Sports and college football win probabilities) to a Google Sheets format going forward. Follow me on Twitter for notifications on my latest posts.

 

My 2017 Bracket Picks

My bracket, along with explanations of upset picks and Final Four games:

Round 1

UNC-Wilmington over Virginia: Regular season champion with a strong record away from home as well as in close games against one of the slowest paced teams in the field. The pace will keep it close enough for UNCW to have a chance to eke out a win.

USC over SMU: The play-in game is often more beneficial to the participant than the awaiting team for the first round, as there has been a play-in game winner every year since the field expanded to 68 in 2011. I like USC more than Kansas State as this year’s version.

Wichita St over Dayton: Vegas doesn’t even consider this an upset. Horrible seeding by the committee gives Dayton a brutal round 1 draw.

Middle Tennessee over Minnesota: Again, Vegas doesn’t see this as an upset. This year’s version of MTSU is even better than the one that knocked off 2 seed Michigan State last year

Rhode Island over Creighton: Rhode Island is one of the hottest teams in the field coming in.

Vermont over Purdue: Vermont has to be considered the hottest team in the field coming in, as they haven’t lost a game since December.

Michigan St over Miami FL: 9 over 8 isn’t much of an upset, but it’s really hard to see an Izzo team getting bounced in round 1 two years in a row. They’ll find a way to get the W.

 

Round 2

Michigan over Louisville: This year’s greatest story, winning 4 games in 4 days after a plane crash. Their run continues just a little longer as they avenge their 2013 title game defeat against the Cardinals.

Sweet 16:

Michigan over Oregon: Oregon can only go so far without Chris Boucher. His loss will be felt in a big way in this match-up.

Elite 8:

Arizona over Gonzaga: Avenging an early-season loss, the Wildcats were identified in my ratings as one of the four strongest teams this season.

Kentucky over North Carolina: Another upset featuring a rematch, but this time the same team advances. North Carolina’s resume was a bit inflated due to fortunate scheduling in conference play, and this was validated in a disappointing ACC tournament showing. Meanwhile, Kentucky went out of their way to play everyone in the non-conference, and while they didn’t win all of them they are certainly battle-tested despite cruising through the SEC this year.

Final Four:

Villanova over Arizona: Last year’s champion is back with very strong team. It’ll be tough in a pseudo road game, but the extensive tournament experience will pay off on the biggest stage.

Kansas over Kentucky: Talent vs. Talent. There’s just a little bit more on the Kansas side this year.

Title game:

Villanova over Kansas: My ratings identify these as the two best teams this year, with Villanova receiving the edge as the top team. Will this be vindication for BoW after another bad score in the Bracket Matrix? We’ll find out in about 3 weeks.

Enjoy the madness, everyone!

 

 

Bracket Guidelines

I thought about writing a full preview of the bracket, complete with match-up breakdowns and identifying the most likely contenders. Upon researching however, I found that everything I planned to include is already out there for consumption; I would not be adding any value by piling on with yet another opinion. Instead, the goal of this preview is to provide a guide on how to set up your bracket to put it in position to win an office pool. Will this guarantee that your bracket will win? Absolutely not. The idea is to get out of your own way and focus on the important aspect of the bracket: identify teams which are most likely to advance. I have a few rules I like to keep in mind when filling out a bracket, and I only go against them when I have a really good reason for it.

• First, set up your bracket with the 1 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16 and the 2,3, and 4 seeds advancing to round 2. Historically, these seeds have had at least an 80% success rate in these games, and there is a considerable drop-off from the 4 seed to 5 seed in round 1. If you have a good reason to go against a couple of these, go for it. Otherwise leave these as they are and move on.
• Protect the king. Think of each round of the bracket like a group of chess pieces. The king is the most important; you must protect it at all costs. This is your eventual champion, and it is important to not voluntarily drop a potential champion in the first weekend. Historically, there is a 91% chance that the eventual champion is a 1,2,3 or 4 seed, which is why the first rule is to keep all of them at least one round. Similarly, think of all the latest rounds as the more valuable chess pieces and the 1-win teams as pawns. Upsets are fun to pick, but if you only have that team getting to the round of 32 at the expense of a team that could make a deep run it isn’t worth it.
• A coach shouldn’t be picked to go more than 2 rounds further than their current best round. For example, if a coach has never taken a team to a Final Four, his current team should not be picked as a national champion. Similarly, if this is a coach’s first tournament appearance, his team should not be picked beyond the 2nd round (ignore play-in games). This is not a cover-all-scenarios rule; there certainly have been exceptions. But in general, it’s a good idea to keep a coach’s track record in tournaments in mind.
• Be aware of recent injuries to key players. If a team has gone through most/all of the regular season with injuries, then this can be ignored as we have a good sense of what that team is already. A player who has been sidelined since early February or later should be factored in.
• Superstar players can take over a game. Look at the list of Naismith semifinalists and all-conference 1st team players from the power conferences. Teams with multiple players on these lists are more likely to advance than teams with no players on these lists.
• Veteran players with tournament experience. Teams with a lot of players who have played in tournament games will tend to perform more consistently to or even above their expectations. The first-timers are more likely to falter under the brighter lights.
• High win percentage away from home. Teams that struggled on the road or at neutral sites during the season won’t all of a sudden figure it out at tournament time.
• Capability to blow out teams. If a team struggled to put away bad teams during the season, they are ripe for an upset in the tournament. Look for upsets of teams who weren’t able to crush anybody during the regular season.
• Strong record in close games. The tournament is full of them, so pick teams who tend to fare well in a tight match-up.

Metrics are important, but I’d tend to shy away from them unless they have a proven success rate over time. If you have something that you think is time-proof, test it out on the Algebracket over multiple years.

I’ll post my own bracket as soon as it is complete. Good luck out there!