Week 5 Win Probabilities

A few of the win probabilities this week are a bit confusing. Lamar Jackson is extremely difficult to quantify. He is the highest rated player in my model, yet it is not enough to boost Louisville beyond a long-shot for this week. I’ve thought about breaking the model’s rules for him, but I’d rather not go down the path of manually adjusting for extreme outliers. Besides, even if I were to double Jackson’s player value Louisville would still have a less than 10% win probability. That doesn’t mean they won’t win, as this game could very well fall in the small percentage that favors Louisville. This metric merely implies Clemson is significantly more likely to win, but nothing is guaranteed

My model doesn’t like Wisconsin; the preseason projection was that they would struggle to make a bowl game. Clearly that isn’t the case, as they’ve beaten two teams with considerably more talented rosters than the Badgers. Paul Chryst is currently rated as the 3rd most efficient coach in my model (behind Tom Herman and Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo), but their roster is ranked 43rd. Like Louisville, the small win probability is not a guarantee that they can’t win this week, it just implies that they are less likely to win than Michigan.

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Alabama Kentucky                 0.9876
Ohio State Rutgers                 0.9876
Arkansas Alcorn State                 0.9845
Auburn Louisiana-Monroe                 0.9807
LSU Missouri                 0.9546
Clemson Louisville                 0.9497
Western Kentucky Houston Baptist                 0.9336
Houston Connecticut                 0.9333
Maryland Purdue                 0.9238
Notre Dame Syracuse                 0.9206
Ole Miss Memphis                 0.8821
Appalachian State Georgia State                 0.8795
UCLA Arizona                 0.8790
Pitt Marshall                 0.8741
Michigan Wisconsin                 0.8706
Penn State Minnesota                 0.8706
Boise State Utah State                 0.8539
Texas Tech Kansas                 0.8499
Florida State North Carolina                 0.8424
Nebraska Illinois                 0.8396
Louisiana Tech UTEP                 0.8312
Temple SMU                 0.7956
Texas State Incarnate Word                 0.7921
Oklahoma State Texas                 0.7757
San Diego State South Alabama                 0.7706
Bowling Green Eastern Michigan                 0.7651
Southern Miss Rice                 0.7631
Baylor Iowa State                 0.7599
Texas A&M South Carolina                 0.7599
Colorado State Wyoming                 0.7522
Michigan State Indiana                 0.7499
Boston College Buffalo                 0.7473
Florida Vanderbilt                 0.7369
Colorado Oregon State                 0.7269
Iowa Northwestern                 0.7269
North Carolina State Wake Forest                 0.7208
USC Arizona State                 0.7133
Duke Virginia                 0.7096
Oregon Washington State                 0.6938
Utah California                 0.6780
Oklahoma TCU                 0.6722
Ohio Miami OH                 0.6512
UNLV Fresno State                 0.6507
Northern Illinois Ball State                 0.6495
Washington Stanford                 0.6435
Central Michigan Western Michigan                 0.6363
Hawaii Nevada                 0.5995
Old Dominion Charlotte                 0.5957
Cincinnati South Florida                 0.5923
West Virginia Kansas State                 0.5825
Florida International Florida Atlantic                 0.5805
Idaho Troy                 0.5776
North Texas Middle Tennessee                 0.5730
Georgia Tennessee                 0.5713
Akron Kent State                 0.5656
Miami FL Georgia Tech                 0.5569
Navy Air Force                 0.5469
Louisiana-Lafayette New Mexico State                 0.5446
Central Florida East Carolina                 0.5339
Tulane Massachusetts                 0.5339
San Jose State New Mexico                 0.5081
Toledo BYU                 0.5060

Ticket Watch Week 5

The four most expensive entry prices in week 5 are made up of the four games between two ranked teams. Nebraska fans are eager to see a re-surging Husker team regardless of opponent, as their game occupies the highest spot for a game with only one ranked team. Houston fans must be saving up for their marquee game against Louisville in November, as their game with UConn holds the lowest entry price for any top 25 game this week.

2016wk5ticketwatch

Remaining Unbeaten Teams, Week 4

Only 27 unbeaten teams remain. The table below shows the probability of each team remaining unbeaten through the regular season as well as remaining games against other unbeaten teams. This week there are 4 games between unbeaten teams:

Stanford at Washington, Friday 9PM ET

Wisconsin at Michigan, Saturday 3:30PM ET

Navy at Air Force, Saturday 3:30PM ET

Louisville at Clemson, Saturday 8PM ET

Team  Prob Undefeated Unbeaten Opponents
Clemson                           0.3630 2
Alabama                           0.3028 2
Ohio State                           0.2973 4
San Diego State                           0.1732 0
Houston                           0.1240 3
Boise State                           0.1004 1
Michigan                           0.0666 3
Tennessee                           0.0274 2
Texas A&M                           0.0176 2
Toledo                           0.0122 1
Stanford                           0.0114 1
Utah                           0.0112 2
Baylor                           0.0086 1
Washington                           0.0074 3
Air Force                           0.0058 2
Western Michigan                           0.0053 1
Miami FL                           0.0040 0
Louisville                           0.0020 3
Arizona State                           0.0019 2
Wisconsin                           0.0017 4
Navy                           0.0009 3
Memphis                           0.0005 2
Maryland                           0.0005 4
Nebraska                           0.0003 4
West Virginia                           0.0002 1
Minnesota                        0.00004 3
Wake Forest                        0.00001 2

Expected Wins after Week 4

Updated expected win totals include results from Week 4. Preseason expected wins and Over/Under are included for comparison. Sort order is current expected wins, descending.

Overachieving

Wisconsin (+3.09 from preseason)

Wake Forest (+2.85)

Louisville (+2.83)

Western Michigan & Army West Point (+2.48)

Underachieving*

Northern Illinois (-3.61)

Arkansas State (-2.86)

Northwestern (-2.77)

Notre Dame (-2.50)

*Omitting teams where the 1st year coaching adjustment accounts for the change in expectations.

Team  Pre E(Wins)  Curr E(Wins) O/U
Clemson                 10.70                   11.20 10.5
Alabama                 10.72                   10.97 10
Ohio State                 10.02                   10.92 9.5
San Diego State                   9.51                   10.44 8.5
Houston                   8.42                   10.24 9.5
Michigan                   9.86                   10.16 10
Boise State                   8.77                   10.01 10.5
Florida State                 10.61                     9.62 9.5
Tennessee                   9.53                     9.59 9.5
Texas A&M                   7.19                     9.50 6
Georgia                   9.53                     9.48 8.5
Stanford                   6.80                     8.89 8.5
Baylor                   6.92                     8.89 9.5
Utah                   6.85                     8.86 7.5
Toledo                   7.34                     8.77 6.5
Oklahoma                 10.30                     8.68 10
Louisville                   5.78                     8.61 9
Washington                   7.98                     8.57 9
Wisconsin                   5.42                     8.51 7
Michigan State                   9.07                     8.50 7.5
Western Michigan                   5.87                     8.35 8.5
Appalachian State                   8.49                     8.33 8.5
UCLA                   9.70                     8.30 8.5
Air Force                   6.94                     8.20 8
Miami FL                   5.84                     8.10 6.5
South Florida                   7.16                     8.08 8.5
Nebraska                   6.88                     8.04 8.5
North Carolina                   7.46                     8.02 8.5
Central Michigan                   6.86                     7.94 7
Arizona State                   7.18                     7.92 5
Cincinnati                   7.47                     7.85 6.5
LSU                   9.47                     7.83 10
Iowa                   8.10                     7.80 8.5
TCU                   8.11                     7.76 8
Maryland                   6.13                     7.75 4.5
Florida                   7.85                     7.75 7.5
Western Kentucky                   8.51                     7.65 8.5
Southern Miss                   7.32                     7.64 8
Navy                   6.78                     7.60 6.5
Oklahoma State                   9.05                     7.57 8.5
Memphis                   6.53                     7.34 6.5
Oregon                   8.92                     7.29 8
Georgia Southern                   6.96                     7.23 8
Ball State                   5.27                     7.12 4.5
Wake Forest                   4.25                     7.10 5.5
West Virginia                   5.81                     7.01 6.5
Auburn                   7.13                     6.99 6.5
Virginia Tech                   6.84                     6.97 6.5
Arkansas                   6.09                     6.90 7.5
Old Dominion                   6.90                     6.89 5
Pitt                   6.95                     6.86 7
Middle Tennessee                   5.61                     6.83 7.5
Notre Dame                   9.29                     6.79 9.5
Texas                   6.31                     6.78 6.5
Penn State                   7.52                     6.69 6.5
Central Florida                   6.79                     6.64 5
Georgia Tech                   5.77                     6.62 6.5
Akron                   6.18                     6.49 5
Minnesota                   4.68                     6.45 6
Ole Miss                   6.36                     6.40 8.5
Nevada                   6.49                     6.32 6.5
Ohio                   6.50                     6.32 7.5
Troy                   4.26                     6.29 6
Louisiana Tech                   7.55                     6.27 7.5
Kansas State                   6.19                     6.23 5.5
USC                   8.50                     6.23 7.5
Temple                   6.92                     6.15 8.5
Northern Illinois                   9.76                     6.15 8.5
Tulsa                   4.46                     6.14 6.5
Colorado State                   6.50                     5.98 5.5
Mississippi State                   6.82                     5.82 6.5
East Carolina                   5.33                     5.81 5.5
Arkansas State                   8.65                     5.79 7.5
North Texas                   3.73                     5.71 2
Utah State                   5.52                     5.66 6.5
Hawaii                   6.36                     5.62 2.5
South Alabama                   5.33                     5.56 3
Arizona                   6.53                     5.50 6
Army West Point                   3.01                     5.49 4.5
Idaho                   4.60                     5.48 3.5
North Carolina State                   5.94                     5.48 6
South Carolina                   4.96                     5.45 5
Duke                   5.50                     5.43 5.5
Texas Tech                   4.61                     5.40 7
Boston College                   5.17                     5.39 6.5
Louisiana-Lafayette                   5.88                     5.37 6.5
Colorado                   3.72                     5.36 4.5
Missouri                   6.20                     5.33 5.5
Texas State                   4.52                     5.28 3
Tulane                   7.60                     5.22 3.5
Marshall                   6.15                     5.15 8.5
Indiana                   5.58                     5.08 4.5
San Jose State                   6.34                     5.02 5
Eastern Michigan                   3.36                     5.01 3
BYU                   5.41                     4.88 8
Kentucky                   4.94                     4.83 5
Bowling Green                   6.06                     4.81 6.5
Washington State                   6.10                     4.81 7.5
New Mexico                   5.26                     4.72 7
Buffalo                   6.12                     4.69 5.5
Northwestern                   7.29                     4.53 6.5
UTEP                   5.56                     4.48 5
Rutgers                   5.20                     4.45 4.5
Wyoming                   3.72                     4.40 3.5
California                   3.01                     4.39 4
Vanderbilt                   4.45                     4.37 5
Florida Atlantic                   5.46                     4.33 4.5
SMU                   3.34                     4.26 3.5
Rice                   6.58                     4.25 6
Connecticut                   3.58                     4.24 5
Charlotte                   5.23                     4.24 2.5
Louisiana-Monroe                   3.65                     3.98 3.5
Purdue                   3.57                     3.90 4.5
Kent State                   4.58                     3.89 4.5
UTSA                   4.50                     3.80 4
Virginia                   8.40                     3.79 4.5
UNLV                   4.47                     3.76 5.5
Georgia State                   4.94                     3.71 4.5
Syracuse                   4.21                     3.60 4
Iowa State                   5.56                     3.59 3.5
Fresno State                   4.03                     3.49 3.5
New Mexico State                   3.67                     3.26 3
Massachusetts                   3.01                     3.24 2.5
Illinois                   4.65                     3.17 4.5
Florida International                   4.27                     2.92 6.5
Oregon State                   4.47                     2.85 3.5
Miami OH                   3.51                     2.22 3.5
Kansas                   2.33                     2.10 1.5

College Football Rankings, Week 4

After 4 weeks the noise in the data is starting to settle enough that my full 128 FBS rankings are ready to be posted. These ranking are used in Ken Massey’s composite ratings. I will post updates going forward each week throughout the season.

My rankings are unique from most others in that these do not use any preseason projections in the calculation; all data is generated from results on the field. A consequence of this approach is that there is a lot of volatility early in the season; teams can jump or fall a huge amount week to week.

Rank Team Conference
1 Clemson ACC
2 Tennessee SEC
3 Michigan B1G
4 Texas A&M SEC
5 Louisville ACC
6 Alabama SEC
7 Stanford PAC12
8 Wisconsin B1G
9 Ohio State B1G
10 Florida State ACC
11 Nebraska B1G
12 Houston Amer
13 Wake Forest ACC
14 Arizona State PAC12
15 Washington PAC12
16 Baylor XII
17 Western Michigan MAC
18 Virginia Tech ACC
19 Miami FL ACC
20 Arkansas SEC
21 Florida SEC
22 Troy SunBelt
23 Boise State MtnW
24 Maryland B1G
25 Colorado PAC12
26 West Virginia XII
27 San Diego State MtnW
28 Utah PAC12
29 Georgia Tech ACC
30 Memphis Amer
31 Ole Miss SEC
32 Navy Amer
33 Toledo MAC
34 Southern Miss CUSA
35 Air Force MtnW
36 Georgia SEC
37 Minnesota B1G
38 TCU XII
39 Tulsa Amer
40 Georgia Southern SunBelt
41 Auburn SEC
42 South Florida Amer
43 Indiana B1G
44 California PAC12
45 Kansas State XII
46 Eastern Michigan MAC
47 UCLA PAC12
48 Texas Tech XII
49 Kentucky SEC
50 Appalachian State SunBelt
51 Central Florida Amer
52 North Carolina State ACC
53 Cincinnati Amer
54 LSU SEC
55 Middle Tennessee CUSA
56 Army West Point Ind
57 Central Michigan MAC
58 North Carolina ACC
59 Oklahoma State XII
60 Missouri SEC
61 Ball State MAC
62 Texas XII
63 Vanderbilt SEC
64 Michigan State B1G
65 Boston College ACC
66 Pitt ACC
67 Penn State B1G
68 Oregon PAC12
69 Oklahoma XII
70 USC PAC12
71 East Carolina Amer
72 South Carolina SEC
73 Tulane Amer
74 Colorado State MtnW
75 Wyoming MtnW
76 Purdue B1G
77 Mississippi State SEC
78 SMU Amer
79 Temple Amer
80 Syracuse ACC
81 Old Dominion CUSA
82 Western Kentucky CUSA
83 Texas State SunBelt
84 Arizona PAC12
85 Akron MAC
86 Rutgers B1G
87 Oregon State PAC12
88 Louisiana-Lafayette SunBelt
89 Ohio MAC
90 Utah State MtnW
91 Duke ACC
92 BYU Ind
93 South Alabama SunBelt
94 Fresno State MtnW
95 Idaho SunBelt
96 Louisiana Tech CUSA
97 North Texas CUSA
98 Iowa B1G
99 Florida Atlantic CUSA
100 Illinois B1G
101 Louisiana-Monroe SunBelt
102 Hawaii MtnW
103 Nevada MtnW
104 Connecticut Amer
105 Georgia State SunBelt
106 Bowling Green MAC
107 Kansas XII
108 Notre Dame Ind
109 UTSA CUSA
110 Charlotte CUSA
111 San Jose State MtnW
112 Massachusetts MAC
113 New Mexico MtnW
114 Northwestern B1G
115 Washington State PAC12
116 New Mexico State SunBelt
117 UNLV MtnW
118 Marshall CUSA
119 UTEP CUSA
120 Buffalo MAC
121 Iowa State XII
122 Virginia ACC
123 Rice CUSA
124 Kent State MAC
125 Florida International CUSA
126 Northern Illinois MAC
127 Arkansas State SunBelt
128 Miami OH MAC

Tom Herman Sweepstakes Begins

I’d considered writing this last week, but thought it was too early in the season to speculate about coaching vacancies. Well, Les Miles was fired by LSU today so it is certainly appropriate to open up the discussion of which coaches are moving up and which coaches are moving out.

It may seem a bit knee-jerky to get rid of Miles today, as LSU is 2-2 with losses to top 10 Wisconsin in a pseudo road game and at Auburn who is also 2-2 with both of their losses to top 10 teams. However, this has been a long time coming and puts LSU in the driver’s seat for reaching out to the hottest name in the country, Houston’s Tom Herman. Herman will undoubtedly have a litany of teams to choose from come December, so let’s take a look at some of the most likely places for him to end up.

Early Favorites

LSU

Pros:

  • Extremely fertile recruiting base with the entire state to themselves (as far as Power 5)
  • Loaded roster, can win right away
  • Rabid fan base and administrative support with track record of a long leash (Miles was in his 12th season in Baton Rouge)
  • SEC West coaches get paid extremely well
  • Familiar geography for Herman, as he has spent 13 of his 19 year coaching career in Texas
  • No need to worry about being left out of the playoffs with an unbeaten record

Cons:

  • Entering the deepest division in FBS, where the reign of Saban doesn’t appear to be too close to ending
  • Expectations will be to win immediately

 

Houston

Herman could have left after last season, but chose to sign an extension that pays very well for a non-Power 5 position, a tag that may soon be dropped as Houston is on the very short list of candidates to join the Big XII in the near future. However, if Houston remains a mid-major and gets left out of the playoffs this year with an unbeaten record, perhaps Herman decides he needs to make a change

Emerging Candidates

Notre Dame

They’re making coaching changes already too, and at 1-3 with a handful of difficult games remaining it isn’t hard to imagine the Irish missing out on a bowl game in 2016. Would that be enough to make a change at the top? Expectations are high in South Bend, and 2012 feels like ancient history to Irish fans after 3+ years of being underwhelmed since.

Oregon

The post Chip Kelly era has not gone as well as hoped for the Ducks, and in year 4 Helfrich is sitting at a disappointing 2-2. Imagining Herman at Oregon has to be terrifying to the rest of the Pac12.

Oklahoma

In his 18th season with the Sooners, Bob Stoops has developed a reputation as a guy who can no longer win the big ones; starting the season 0 for 2 in the big ones has been a loud reminder of that notion. This one has a very John Cooper-like feel to it; wins a lot but never when it matters most. Plus Oklahoma has seen first-hand what Herman is capable of, and they have to think hard about whether they want to go against him for the next decade in the Big XII if Houston joins or if he ends up at…

Texas

Charlie Strong has been on the hot seat seemingly since he arrived in Austin, but in year 3 maybe has finally started to get things going in the right direction. The Longhorns are ranked, but have an early loss against a not-that-great Cal team and are giving up an avalanche of points against Power 5 competition. The Notre Dame win has lost most of its luster in the past 2 weeks as well. Texas really needs a strong showing in conference play to justify extending the Charlie Strong Experiment another year. The urgency to make a move may prove too much though with Herman just down the road.

USC

The Trojans are a mess, having dropped their first 2 games in conference accompanying a nationally televised bludgeoning at the hands of Alabama to open the year. Clay Helton looks like a disastrously bad hire, but with a new AD in place it may be determined that USC can’t afford not to make a change. This is USC and their head coach is…Clay Helton? That just isn’t good enough for a program of this caliber.

Long Shots

None of these are at all likely landing spots yet, but will be noted just in case circumstances take a turn in their direction.

Dallas Cowboys

There hasn’t been much speculation on Herman going to the NFL, but Dallas needs a good season to justify not making a change and Jerry Jones has a flair for making a splashy move. The hottest coach in college football residing in the same state may be very tempting.

Auburn

Chizik was fired two years after winning a national title. Auburn has the quickest trigger finger in the country and has to be getting tired of watching Saban increase the number on Bama’s display helmet.

Penn State

James Franklin has been largely unimpressive in Happy Valley. With Meyer, Harbaugh, and Dantonio in the same division it looks like he’ll be competing for 4th place indefinitely. How much longer will that low bar be acceptable for the Nittany Lions?

 

Week 4 Win Probabilities

Win probabilities for Week 4

Projected winner Opponent  Win Prob.
Alabama Kent State           0.9988
Northern Illinois Western Illinois           0.9710
Missouri Delaware State           0.9546
Kansas State Missouri State           0.9508
Arkansas State Central Arkansas           0.9373
Oregon Colorado           0.9255
Cincinnati Miami OH           0.9149
Boston College Wagner           0.8884
Mississippi State Massachusetts           0.8815
Michigan Penn State           0.8815
Clemson Georgia Tech           0.8749
Notre Dame Duke           0.8657
Florida State South Florida           0.8560
Ohio Gardner-Webb           0.8554
TCU SMU           0.8396
Michigan State Wisconsin           0.8396
South Alabama Nicholls State           0.8332
Arizona State California           0.8272
Virginia Tech East Carolina           0.8252
Texas A&M Arkansas           0.8048
Houston Texas State           0.8025
Buffalo Army West Point           0.7766
UCLA Stanford           0.7757
Old Dominion UTSA           0.7720
Temple Charlotte           0.7694
Indiana Wake Forest           0.7637
Tennessee Florida           0.7441
Rice North Texas           0.7315
Memphis Bowling Green           0.7237
Western Kentucky Vanderbilt           0.6883
Louisville Marshall           0.6849
Minnesota Colorado State           0.6843
Boise State Oregon State           0.6754
Georgia Ole Miss           0.6622
Troy New Mexico State           0.6590
Central Florida Florida International           0.6561
UNLV Idaho           0.6527
North Carolina Pitt           0.6527
Southern Miss UTEP           0.6288
Utah State Air Force           0.6219
Northwestern Nebraska           0.6095
LSU Auburn           0.6052
Appalachian State Akron           0.5897
Iowa Rutgers           0.5811
Virginia Central Michigan           0.5808
BYU West Virginia           0.5788
Iowa State San Jose State           0.5713
Connecticut Syracuse           0.5630
Louisiana Tech Middle Tennessee           0.5506
Washington Arizona           0.5359
Fresno State Tulsa           0.5308
Western Michigan Georgia Southern           0.5305
Florida Atlantic Ball State           0.5236
Tulane Louisiana-Lafayette           0.5236
South Carolina Kentucky           0.5221
USC Utah           0.5207
Eastern Michigan Wyoming           0.5155
Purdue Nevada           0.5101
Oklahoma State Baylor           0.5060